GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BUD-12 from 22/05/2012 09:00 UTC to 26/05/2012 15:00 UTC
Summary
Tropical Cyclone impact
Storm surge
Extreme rain
Media analysis
Data Resources
Storm surge for tropical cyclone BUD-12
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Green alert for storm surge impact in Mexico

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 11 of tropical cyclone BUD-12 issued at 23 May 2012 15:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 30374).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): No people affected
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 3
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 185 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Cuyutlan, Mexico. This height is estimated for 26 May 2012 06:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Show forecast grid

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open
Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
26 May 2012 06:00:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1m
26 May 2012 06:00:00 El Real Mexico  0.1m
26 May 2012 06:00:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1m
26 May 2012 06:00:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1m
26 May 2012 06:00:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1m
26 May 2012 06:00:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1m
26 May 2012 06:00:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 7)
Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 23 May 2012 09:00:00.
(Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.