GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Orange Tropical Cyclone alert in Mexico for BUD-12 from 22/05/2012 09:00 UTC to 26/05/2012 15:00 UTC
Summary
Tropical Cyclone impact
Storm surge
Extreme rain
Media analysis
Data Resources
Storm surge for tropical cyclone BUD-12
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alertimage

Green alert for storm surge impact in Mexico

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 17 of tropical cyclone BUD-12 issued at 25 May 2012 3:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 30374).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): No people affected
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 3
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 185 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Chamela, Mexico. This height is estimated for 26 May 2012 02:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Show forecast grid

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open
Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
26 May 2012 02:00:00 Chamela Mexico  0.6m
26 May 2012 00:00:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.5m
26 May 2012 04:00:00 Chola Mexico  0.4m
25 May 2012 23:00:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.3m
26 May 2012 01:00:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.3m
25 May 2012 23:00:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.2m
25 May 2012 23:00:00 Santiago Mexico  0.2m
26 May 2012 10:00:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2m
25 May 2012 19:00:00 Bucerias Mexico  0.1m
25 May 2012 20:00:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1m
25 May 2012 20:00:00 San Telmo Mexico  0.1m
25 May 2012 23:00:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1m
26 May 2012 00:00:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1m
26 May 2012 00:00:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 26)
Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 25 May 2012 03:00:00.
(Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.