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Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BERGUITTA-18
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritiusfrom 12 Jan 2018 18:00 UTC to 19 Jan 2018 18:00 UTC

GTS


GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is also shown in the home page with a dedicated icon.
Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

WTIO30 FMEE 200022

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.9 S / 50.8 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 740 SW: 590 NW: 430
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 520 SW: 430 NW: 200



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/21 12 UTC: 33.8 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/22 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/22 12 UTC: 36.2 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/23 00 UTC: 37.6 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/24 00 UTC: 39.0 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/01/25 00 UTC: 39.6 S / 60.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, BERGUITTA CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATES.
DESPITE SOME CONVECTIVE BURSTS, CLOUD TOPS GOT WARMER, PROBABLY
BECAUSE OF THE DECAYING UNDERNEATH OCEANIC POTENTIAL. LACKING FROM
MICROWAVE DATA AND ASCAT SWATH OVER THE INNER CORE, CENTER LOCATION
IS RATHER UNCLEAR. THE CORE MONITORED LAST RUN, MAY HAVE VANISHED,
WITHIN A BROAD MOAT AREA.


BERGUITTA STARTED TO BEND PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING
FLOW GENERATING BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
FROM TODAY EVENING, BERGUITTA IS FORECASTED TO SLOW DOWN STOPPED BY A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. NEXT, BERGUITTA IS
EXPECTED TO LEAVE TROPICAL LATITUDES, SOUTH-EASTWARDS, DRIVEN BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH-EAST. AT LONG RANGE, THE ARRIVAL OF A
NEW RIDGE AT SOUTH-WEST MAY SLOW DOWN AGAIN THE LOW.


TODAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP DETERIORATING WITH
A INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC AREA AND THE UPPER
TROUGH, BERGUITTA SHOULD KEEP A SHALLOW WARM CORE. NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE DECAY OF THE BAROCLINIC FORCING, THE FUTURE POST TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY THEN FILL UP.=

2018-01-20 00:37:00 WTIO30FMEE200022.TXT  

2018-01-20 00:37:00 WTIO31FMEE200022.TXT  

2018-01-20 00:11:00 WTIO22FMEE200008.TXT  

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2018-01-18 12:43:00 WTIO20FMEE181242CCA.TXT

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