Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico
22 Oct 2022 09 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2022-000345-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 290 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 213 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (23 Oct 13:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    23 Oct 2022 06:00 - 23 Oct 2022 18:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 194 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 213 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      194 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 290000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 20 Oct 2022 03:00 167 2 million 130 thousand Mexico
        Orange 2 20 Oct 2022 09:00 167 2.6 million 460 thousand Mexico
        Orange 3 20 Oct 2022 15:00 157 2.8 million 350 thousand Mexico
        Orange 4 20 Oct 2022 21:00 157 3.2 million 130 thousand Mexico
        Orange 5 21 Oct 2022 03:00 157 1.6 million 90 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 21 Oct 2022 09:00 176 4.2 million 1.8 million Mexico
        Orange 7 21 Oct 2022 15:00 176 4.4 million 810 thousand Mexico
        Orange 8 21 Oct 2022 21:00 167 4.3 million 220 thousand Mexico
        Orange 9 22 Oct 2022 03:00 176 2.4 million 320 thousand Mexico
        Red 10 22 Oct 2022 09:00 194 1.8 million 290 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Oct 2022 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.2, -101.3
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Oct 2022 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, -101.5
          GREEN
          		 3 20 Oct 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.2, -102
          GREEN
          		 4 20 Oct 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.5, -103
          GREEN
          		 5 21 Oct 2022 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.7, -103.6
          GREEN
          		 6 21 Oct 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 16.2, -103.8
          GREEN
          		 7 21 Oct 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 16.4, -104.4
          GREEN
          		 8 21 Oct 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.4, -105
          GREEN
          		 9 22 Oct 2022 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.7, -105.6
          GREEN
          		 10 22 Oct 2022 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 17.3, -106.1
          GREEN
          		 10 22 Oct 2022 18:00 Category 4 222 no people 16000 people 18.3, -106.4
          RED
          		 10 23 Oct 2022 06:00 Category 3 194 210000 people 1.5 million people 20.1, -106.2
          GREEN
          		 10 23 Oct 2022 18:00 Category 1 120 83000 people 520000 people 22.6, -105 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 10 24 Oct 2022 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 25.7, -102.5 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Mexico 290000 people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Nayarit Mexico 210000 people
          Zacatecas Mexico 4800 people
          Durango Mexico 72000 people
          Coahuila Mexico 4700 people

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Santiago Ixcuintla Nayarit Mexico City -
          Tuxpan Nayarit Mexico City 23000 people
          Miguel Auza Durango Mexico City 13000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          San Blas 3 0
          La Candelaria del Alto 1940 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          San Blas MXSBS Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          G. Franci Poanas 1968
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.7 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in San Blas, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2022 13:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (17 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 22 Oct 2022 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          23 Oct 2022 13:00 San Blas Mexico  0.7
          23 Oct 2022 14:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.5
          23 Oct 2022 13:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.4
          23 Oct 2022 15:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 09:00 Pizota Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 08:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 17:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 10:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 14:00 La Lima Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 17:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 08:00 Corrales Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 17:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 08:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 11:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 13:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 10:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1