Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
19 Jan 2023 10 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (19 Jan 20:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
    Landfall between
    19 Jan 2023 10:00 - 19 Jan 2023 22:00
    in Madagascar

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 106 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 169 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

    Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France
    TOP

    Wind

      106 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.7 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 18 Jan 2023 04:00 95 4.1 million No people Madagascar
        Green 2 18 Jan 2023 10:00 106 4.4 million No people Madagascar
        Green 3 18 Jan 2023 16:00 116 1.6 million No people Madagascar
        Green 4 18 Jan 2023 22:00 127 5.3 million No people Madagascar
        Green 5 19 Jan 2023 04:00 116 4.8 million No people Madagascar
        Green 6 19 Jan 2023 10:00 106 2.7 million No people Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Category
          (WMO/RSMC) **           		Max winds
          (km/h)
          (WMO/RSMC)           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 18 Jan 2023 04:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -13.9, 56
          GREEN
          		 2 18 Jan 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -13.7, 53.8
          GREEN
          		 3 18 Jan 2023 16:00 Tropical storm 95 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 83 -13.4, 52.8
          GREEN
          		 4 18 Jan 2023 22:00 Tropical storm 116 no people 1.3 million people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -13.5, 51.9
          GREEN
          		 5 19 Jan 2023 04:00 Tropical storm 116 no people 2.8 million people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -13.9, 51.1
          GREEN
          		 6 19 Jan 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 106 no people 1.3 million people Severe Tropical Storm 93 -14.6, 50.5
          GREEN
          		 6 19 Jan 2023 22:00 Tropical storm 63 no people 890000 people Overland Depression 56 -15.5, 49.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 20 Jan 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 63 no people 840000 people Overland Depression 56 -16.2, 48.8 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 20 Jan 2023 22:00 Tropical storm 63 no people 940000 people Overland Depression 56 -16.9, 48.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 21 Jan 2023 10:00 Tropical depression 53 no people no people Overland Depression 46 -18, 47.4 Madagascar
          **
          Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Madagascar 2.7 million people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Antsiranana Madagascar 860000 people
          Toamasina Madagascar 940000 people
          Mahajanga Madagascar 570000 people
          Antananarivo Madagascar 300000 people

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Antalaha Antsiranana Madagascar City 34000 people
          Sambava Antsiranana Madagascar City 31000 people
          Andapa Antsiranana Madagascar City 20000 people
          Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 24000 people
          Vohemar Antsiranana Madagascar City -
          Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
          Mandritsara Mahajanga Madagascar City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
          Sambava SVB 6 Civ. Paved No 5900
          Andapa ZWA 473 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Doany DOA unknown 0
          Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Vohemar VOH 6 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Mandritsara WMA 307 Civ. Unpaved No 3700
          Tsaratanana TTS 327 Civ. Unpaved No 4300
          Andriamena WAD unknown 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Antataha MGANM Madagascar
          Sambava MGSVB Madagascar
          Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
          Vohemar Madagascar
          Mananara MGWMR Madagascar

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Sahamaloto Sahamaloto 1958
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19 Jan 2023 20:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (31 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 19 Jan 2023 10:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          19 Jan 2023 20:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
          19 Jan 2023 19:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
          19 Jan 2023 19:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
          19 Jan 2023 18:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Ampaha Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 17:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Ambinany Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 13:00 Antalaha Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Andrapengy Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 13:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 16:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Sambava Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 20:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 09:00 Antohamaro Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Ambodipont-Sahana Madagascar  0.2
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Antongompatatra Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Bemanevika Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 11:00 Amborimalana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 13:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 14:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 16:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 17:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 09:00 Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 10:00 Farahalana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 20:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 13:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
          19 Jan 2023 12:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1