Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico
22 Oct 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 137 km/h n.a. 155 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 0.4 m 415 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico17,457
+
United States16,884 
Mexico573 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Oct 2022 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 20 Oct 2022 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 20 Oct 2022 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 21 Oct 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 21 Oct 2022 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 21 Oct 2022 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 21 Oct 2022 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 22 Oct 2022 00:00 162 3 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
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Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

415 mm

Up to Few people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States83 
50-100 mmUnited States1,557,215 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 20 Oct 2022 06:00 131 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 3 20 Oct 2022 12:00 147 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 20 Oct 2022 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 21 Oct 2022 00:00 124 -
- - - - - Guatemala, Honduras
Blue 6 21 Oct 2022 06:00 141 -
- - - - - Honduras
Blue 7 21 Oct 2022 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Honduras
Blue 8 21 Oct 2022 18:00 109 20 thousand
- - - - Honduras
Blue 9 22 Oct 2022 00:00 391 920 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Honduras




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
    

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