Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELLIE-22
in Australia
22 Dec 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELLIE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Indonesia, Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (22 Dec 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 72 km/h 0.4 m 101 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 72 km/h 0.5 m 548 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

72 km/h

Up to 110 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Dec 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndonesia, Australia113,550
+
Indonesia110,589 
Australia2,961 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Dec 2022 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Dec 2022 12:00 68 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 22 Dec 2022 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Dec 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndonesia587,292 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia8,969,998
+
Indonesia8,893,003 
Papua New Guinea35 
East Timor69,249 
Australia7,710 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia16,916,943
+
Indonesia15,506,845 
Papua New Guinea295,109 
East Timor944,808 
Australia170,179 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Dec 2022 06:00 133 Few people
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 2 22 Dec 2022 12:00 146 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 3 22 Dec 2022 18:00 370 9.6 million
- - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in The Palms, Australia. This height is estimated for 22 Dec 2022 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Dec 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Dec 2022 22:00 The Palms Australia  0.4
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Larrakeyah Australia  0.4
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Fannie Bay Australia  0.4
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Parap Australia  0.4
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Darwin Australia  0.4
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Nightcliff Australia  0.4
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Ludmilla Australia  0.4
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Bagot Australia  0.4
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Leanyer Australia  0.4
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.4
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Berrimah Australia  0.4
22 Dec 2022 20:00 Carrarang Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Port Davis Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Port Broughton Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 20:00 Tamala Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Whyalla Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Port Bonython Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Port Germein Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Port Pirie Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Solomontown Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Tickera Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Telowie Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 22:15 Horrocks Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 22:15 Drummond Cove Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 22:15 Popes Landing Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Gregory Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Lynton Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 19:00 Minjilang Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 22:30 Waggrakine Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 22:30 Geraldton Australia  0.2
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Wallaroo Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 22:30 Greenough Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Bing Bong Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 22:00 Kalbarri Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 21:30 Safety Bay Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 21:30 Rockingham Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 21:30 Warnbro Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 21:30 Peelhurst Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 21:30 Singleton Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 21:30 Karnup Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 21:30 Wattleup Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Warburto Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Port Hughes Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Port Moonta Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Moonta Bay Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Moonta Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 19:45 Wangary Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 20:45 Wyomi Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 20:45 Kingston Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 20:45 Kingston SE Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 20:45 Rosetown Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 21:45 Falcon Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 21:45 Mandurah Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Fremantle Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 North Fremantle Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Mosman Park Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Cottesloe Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 East Fremantle Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Coogee Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Peppermint Grove Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Swanbourne Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Claremont Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Spearwood Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Bicton Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:30 Quinns Rock Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:30 Mullalloo Beach Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:30 North Beach Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:30 Scarborough Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:30 Guilderton Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:30 Two Rocks Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:30 Lancelin Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 22:45 Denison Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 22:45 Port Denison Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 22:45 Dongara Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:15 Cervantes Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:30 Seabird Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:30 Yanchep Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 22:45 Jurien Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 20:15 Gribble Settlement Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:15 Green Head Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Price Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Port Clinton Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Port Wakefield Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Wakefield Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Inkerman Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 18:00 Numbulwar Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 22:15 Binningup Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 22:15 Myalup Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 22:15 Burragenup Australia  0.1
23 Dec 2022 00:00 Ardrossan Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 23:15 Leeman Australia  0.1
22 Dec 2022 21:15 Learmonth Australia  0.1