Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for KEVIN-23
in Vanuatu
06 Mar 2023 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KEVIN-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia, New Zealand
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 173 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (Vanuatu)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 173 km/h n.a. 403 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h n.a. 403 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Mar 2023 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia, New Zealand13,972
+
Australia13,971 
New Zealand01 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 01 Mar 2023 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia
GREEN 2 02 Mar 2023 00:00 130 -
- - - - - Vanuatu, New Caledonia
GREEN 3 02 Mar 2023 06:00 130 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 4 02 Mar 2023 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 5 02 Mar 2023 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 6 03 Mar 2023 00:00 133 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 7 03 Mar 2023 06:00 130 7 thousand
- - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 8 03 Mar 2023 12:00 137 Few people
- - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 9 03 Mar 2023 18:00 162 Few people
- - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 10 04 Mar 2023 00:00 162 -
- - - - - Vanuatu, New Caledonia
GREEN 11 04 Mar 2023 06:00 173 -
- - - - - New Caledonia
GREEN 12 04 Mar 2023 12:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 04 Mar 2023 18:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 05 Mar 2023 00:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 05 Mar 2023 06:00 122 -
- - - - - Fiji, New Zealand
GREEN 16 05 Mar 2023 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Fiji, Australia
GREEN 17 05 Mar 2023 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 06 Mar 2023 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 06 Mar 2023 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Australia, New Zealand
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

403 mm

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Mar 2023 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmWallis and Futuna, Vanuatu, Niue, New Zealand12,420
+
Wallis and Futuna3,947 
Vanuatu6,400 
Niue1,609 
New Zealand462 
50-100 mmPapua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, American Samoa, Vanuatu, Tonga, Australia, Cook Islands, New Zealand408,788
+
Papua New Guinea114,227 
Solomon Islands26,902 
Fiji5,877 
Wallis and Futuna8,938 
Vanuatu20,506 
Tonga1,056 
Australia214,665 
Cook Islands2,421 
New Zealand14,192 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 01 Mar 2023 18:00 219 -
- - - - - New Caledonia
Blue 2 02 Mar 2023 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 02 Mar 2023 06:00 164 -
- - - - - Solomon Islands
Blue 4 02 Mar 2023 12:00 150 -
- - - - - Solomon Islands
Blue 5 02 Mar 2023 18:00 181 -
- - - - - Papua New Guinea
Blue 6 03 Mar 2023 00:00 212 -
- - - - - Solomon Islands, Vanuatu
Blue 7 03 Mar 2023 06:00 178 80 thousand
- - - - Vanuatu
Blue 8 03 Mar 2023 12:00 112 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
Blue 9 03 Mar 2023 18:00 116 -
- - - - - Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu
Blue 10 04 Mar 2023 00:00 145 -
- - - - - Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia
Blue 11 04 Mar 2023 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 04 Mar 2023 12:00 197 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 04 Mar 2023 18:00 171 -
- - - - - Papua New Guinea
Blue 14 05 Mar 2023 00:00 145 -
- - - - - Fiji
Blue 15 05 Mar 2023 06:00 75 -
- - - - - Fiji
Blue 16 05 Mar 2023 12:00 110 -
- - - - - Fiji
Blue 17 05 Mar 2023 18:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 06 Mar 2023 00:00 59 -
- - - - - Fiji
Blue 19 06 Mar 2023 06:00 306 10 thousand
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, American Samoa, Vanuatu, Tonga, Australia, Cook Islands, Niue, New Zealand




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Mar 2023 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    

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