Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for AGATHA-22
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AGATHA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (31 May 21:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 65 km/h 0.6 m 223 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 58 km/h 0.8 m 704 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

58 km/h

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 May 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico2,115 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 May 2022 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 28 May 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 28 May 2022 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 29 May 2022 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 May 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico201,464 
100-250 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica1,247,035
+
Mexico905,391 
Belize3,145 
Guatemala141,974 
Honduras191,353 
Nicaragua06 
Costa Rica5,163 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama14,898,715
+
United States245 
Cuba493,762 
Mexico4,267,045 
Belize209,495 
Guatemala4,117,286 
Honduras2,452,516 
Nicaragua2,088,036 
El Salvador629,413 
Costa Rica546,060 
Panama94,853 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 May 2022 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 2 28 May 2022 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 28 May 2022 12:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 29 May 2022 00:00 673 1.4 million
- - - United States, Cuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 May 2022 00:00 UTC