Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for AGATHA-22
in Mexico
31 May 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AGATHA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 47 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (03 Jun 08:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 47 km/h 0.8 m 182 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 58 km/h 0.8 m 704 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

58 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 May 2022 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 28 May 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 28 May 2022 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 29 May 2022 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 29 May 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 30 May 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 30 May 2022 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 31 May 2022 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 31 May 2022 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico70,903 
100-250 mmCuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama4,378,821
+
Cuba751,814 
Mexico3,464,832 
Belize09 
Guatemala39,731 
Honduras71 
Nicaragua7,789 
Costa Rica113,741 
Panama830 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama19,562,734
+
United States01 
Cuba2,152,993 
Mexico7,508,896 
Cayman Islands56,345 
Belize200,987 
Guatemala2,645,897 
Honduras797,701 
Nicaragua1,543,320 
El Salvador301,026 
Costa Rica3,909,881 
Panama445,683 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 May 2022 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 2 28 May 2022 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 28 May 2022 12:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 29 May 2022 00:00 223 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 29 May 2022 12:00 252 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 6 30 May 2022 00:00 188 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 30 May 2022 12:00 241 290 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 8 31 May 2022 00:00 160 110 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 9 31 May 2022 12:00 522 4.4 million
- - - United States, Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 12:00 UTC