Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico
25 Oct 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 173 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (23 Oct 01:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 173 km/h 0.4 m 415 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 0.4 m 415 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico966,368
+
United States719,790 
Mexico246,577 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Oct 2022 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 20 Oct 2022 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 20 Oct 2022 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 21 Oct 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 21 Oct 2022 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 21 Oct 2022 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 21 Oct 2022 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 22 Oct 2022 00:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 22 Oct 2022 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 22 Oct 2022 12:00 173 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 12 22 Oct 2022 18:00 162 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 13 23 Oct 2022 00:00 162 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 14 23 Oct 2022 06:00 130 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 15 23 Oct 2022 12:00 126 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 16 23 Oct 2022 18:00 83 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 17 24 Oct 2022 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 18 24 Oct 2022 06:00 68 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 19 24 Oct 2022 12:00 61 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 20 24 Oct 2022 18:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 21 25 Oct 2022 00:00 68 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

415 mm

Up to 4 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmHonduras48,652 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala3,988,421
+
United States513,927 
Mexico510,142 
Guatemala987,108 
Honduras1,977,242 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua17,673,339
+
United States3,555,719 
Mexico4,579,241 
Belize16,934 
Guatemala4,928,976 
Honduras1,202,078 
El Salvador3,088,745 
Nicaragua301,641 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 20 Oct 2022 06:00 131 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 3 20 Oct 2022 12:00 147 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 20 Oct 2022 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 21 Oct 2022 00:00 124 -
- - - - - Guatemala, Honduras
Blue 6 21 Oct 2022 06:00 141 -
- - - - - Honduras
Blue 7 21 Oct 2022 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Honduras
Blue 8 21 Oct 2022 18:00 109 20 thousand
- - - - Honduras
Blue 9 22 Oct 2022 00:00 155 2 thousand
- - - - Honduras
Blue 10 22 Oct 2022 06:00 181 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 22 Oct 2022 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 22 Oct 2022 18:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 23 Oct 2022 00:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 23 Oct 2022 06:00 164 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 15 23 Oct 2022 12:00 169 20 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 16 23 Oct 2022 18:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 24 Oct 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 24 Oct 2022 06:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 24 Oct 2022 12:00 44 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 24 Oct 2022 18:00 33 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 25 Oct 2022 00:00 251 Few people
- - - - United States




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico223,073 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC