Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MANDOUS-22
in India, Sri Lanka
10 Dec 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANDOUS-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries India, Sri Lanka
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (08 Dec 00:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 137 km/h 0.5 m 700 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 0.5 m 700 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndia, Sri Lanka683,509
+
India166 
Sri Lanka683,343 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Dec 2022 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Dec 2022 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Dec 2022 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Dec 2022 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Sri Lanka
GREEN 5 08 Dec 2022 18:00 115 -
- - - - - Sri Lanka
GREEN 6 09 Dec 2022 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Sri Lanka
GREEN 7 09 Dec 2022 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 09 Dec 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Dec 2022 18:00 76 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 10 10 Dec 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 10 Dec 2022 06:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 10 Dec 2022 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 10 Dec 2022 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

700 mm

Up to 40.1 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmIndonesia29 
250-500 mmIndonesia1,240,273 
100-250 mmIndia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Indonesia38,855,422
+
India30,426,368 
Thailand16 
Sri Lanka770,402 
Indonesia7,658,635 
50-100 mmIndia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Indonesia, Maldives111,918,226
+
India101,596,170 
Thailand1,313,865 
Sri Lanka2,349,341 
Malaysia101,624 
Indonesia6,331,377 
Maldives225,847 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Dec 2022 18:00 259 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Dec 2022 00:00 197 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Dec 2022 06:00 239 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Dec 2022 12:00 165 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Dec 2022 18:00 121 100 thousand
- - - - Sri Lanka
Blue 6 09 Dec 2022 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 09 Dec 2022 06:00 71 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 09 Dec 2022 12:00 66 -
- - - - - India
Blue 9 09 Dec 2022 18:00 155 -
- - - - - India
Blue 10 10 Dec 2022 00:00 102 -
- - - - - India, Indonesia
Blue 11 10 Dec 2022 06:00 70 -
- - - - - India
Blue 12 10 Dec 2022 12:00 63 -
- - - - - India
Blue 13 10 Dec 2022 18:00 326 2.3 million
- - - India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in North Eastern, Ammanthanaveli, Sri Lanka. This height is estimated for 07/12/2022 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
2.0 - 3.0 mIndonesia195 
0.5 - 1.0 mIndonesia3,144 
0.25 - 0.5 mIndia, Sri Lanka, Indonesia25,085
+
India21,250 
Sri Lanka2,589 
Indonesia1,245 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07/12/2022 19:00 North Eastern, Ammanthanaveli Sri Lanka  0.4
09/12/2022 02:00 North Eastern, Kiranchi Sri Lanka  0.3
07/12/2022 19:00 North Eastern, Brynthuraichenai Sri Lanka  0.3
07/12/2022 20:00 Andhra Pradesh, Pakala India  0.3
08/12/2022 00:00 Rakhine, Aindin Myanmar  0.3
07/12/2022 20:00 Andhra Pradesh, Ullapalem India  0.2
08/12/2022 00:00 Chittagong, Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.2
07/12/2022 19:00 Tamil Nadu, Marakkanam India  0.2
08/12/2022 01:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Seikkyi Myanmar  0.2
08/12/2022 04:00 Orissa, Chandipur India  0.2
08/12/2022 00:00 Rakhine, Ye Kyun Taung-ywa Myanmar  0.2
07/12/2022 19:00 Tamil Nadu, Kalapettai India  0.2
07/12/2022 20:00 North Eastern, Point Pedro Sri Lanka  0.2
08/12/2022 00:00 Rakhine, Magyi Kyun Magyi-ywa Myanmar  0.2
08/12/2022 01:00 West Bengal, Bijavbati India  0.2
08/12/2022 00:00 Orissa, Puri India  0.2
08/12/2022 08:00 Tamil Nadu, Thoothukkudi India  0.2
10/12/2022 18:00 Surat Thani, Ban Tha Krachai Thailand  0.2
10/12/2022 18:00 Chumphon, Ban Bang Man Thailand  0.2
10/12/2022 17:00 Chumphon, Ban Choeng Kra Thailand  0.2
10/12/2022 18:00 Chumphon, Ban Hin Sam Kon Thailand  0.2
08/12/2022 06:00 Jharkhand, Hukitala India  0.2
08/12/2022 02:00 North Eastern, Panama Sri Lanka  0.2
08/12/2022 05:00 Rakhine, Taik Kyun Taikkyua Myanmar  0.2
10/12/2022 18:00 Prachuap Khiri Khan, Ban Chamuang Thailand  0.2
08/12/2022 11:00 Mon, Kwanhla Myanmar  0.2
08/12/2022 08:00 Tanintharyi, Kawthaung Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 10:00 Orissa, Gopalpur India  0.1
08/12/2022 07:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Dawnvein Myanmar  0.1
07/12/2022 20:00 Andhra Pradesh, Vatturupallepalem India  0.1
09/12/2022 20:00 Tanintharyi, Kanmaw Kyun Bemagyauk Ywa Myanmar  0.1
09/12/2022 19:00 Tamil Nadu, Ennore India  0.1
08/12/2022 00:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
09/12/2022 20:00 Tanintharyi, Tawbyagyi Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 00:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Zibyugyaung Myanmar  0.1
07/12/2022 20:00 Andhra Pradesh, Pudimadaka India  0.1
08/12/2022 01:00 , Hambantota Sri Lanka  0.1
09/12/2022 20:00 Tanintharyi, Kanmaw Kyun Mawgaungdon Ywa Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 15:00 Ranong, Ban Sin Hai Thailand  0.1
08/12/2022 05:00 Rakhine, Mawyen Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 01:00 Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Little Nicobar Island Tiden India  0.1
08/12/2022 06:00 Chittagong, Kutubdia Island Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.1
08/12/2022 12:00 Yangon, Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
10/12/2022 17:00 Aceh, Pulau (Simalur) Simeulue Ballasetas Indonesia  0.1
08/12/2022 03:00 Andhra Pradesh, Ammalapadu India  0.1
08/12/2022 06:00 Rakhine, Sandawshin Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 04:00 Tamil Nadu, Kattumavadi India  0.1
08/12/2022 02:00 Khulna, Dubla Bangladesh  0.1
09/12/2022 02:00 Ayeyarwaddy, Alandaing Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 00:00 Tamil Nadu, Kottaippattanam India  0.1
08/12/2022 06:00 Chittagong, Kutubdia Island Dhurung Bangladesh  0.1
08/12/2022 16:00 West Bengal, Gangra India  0.1
08/12/2022 08:00 Tamil Nadu, Pamban India  0.1
08/12/2022 15:00 Rakhine, Tandin Myanmar  0.1
08/12/2022 13:00 Barisal, Char Bagala Bangladesh  0.0
08/12/2022 16:00 Barisal, Kanchanpur Bangladesh  0.0