Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELLIE-22
in Australia
23 Dec 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELLIE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (23 Dec 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 61 km/h 0.5 m 431 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 61 km/h 0.5 m 431 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

61 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 21 Dec 2022 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Dec 2022 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 22 Dec 2022 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Dec 2022 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndonesia, Australia3,981,066
+
Indonesia3,980,296 
Australia769 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia9,935,657
+
Indonesia9,768,294 
Papua New Guinea16,409 
Australia150,954 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia15,733,704
+
Indonesia14,368,215 
Papua New Guinea1,194,018 
East Timor27,267 
Australia144,203 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 21 Dec 2022 12:00 100 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 2 22 Dec 2022 00:00 157 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 3 22 Dec 2022 12:00 160 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 4 23 Dec 2022 00:00 416 11.5 million
- - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mAustralia342 
0.25 - 0.5 mAustralia6,019 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC