Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELLIE-22
in Australia
23 Dec 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELLIE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Indonesia, Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (23 Dec 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 72 km/h 0.5 m 548 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 72 km/h 0.5 m 548 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

72 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndonesia, Australia13,422
+
Indonesia10,990 
Australia2,432 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Dec 2022 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Dec 2022 12:00 68 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 22 Dec 2022 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 23 Dec 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 23 Dec 2022 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 23 Dec 2022 12:00 72 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmAustralia251 
250-500 mmIndonesia, Australia590,493
+
Indonesia582,455 
Australia8,037 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia13,673,855
+
Indonesia13,126,221 
Papua New Guinea543,606 
Australia4,027 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia17,786,226
+
Indonesia15,428,613 
Papua New Guinea1,104,997 
East Timor1,027,713 
Australia224,902 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Dec 2022 06:00 133 Few people
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 2 22 Dec 2022 12:00 146 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 3 22 Dec 2022 18:00 101 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 4 23 Dec 2022 00:00 127 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 5 23 Dec 2022 06:00 93 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 6 23 Dec 2022 12:00 504 10 million
- - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Northern Territory, Gribble Settlement, Australia. This height is estimated for 22/12/2022 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mAustralia00
+
0.25 - 0.5 mAustralia375 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22/12/2022 16:00 Northern Territory, Gribble Settlement Australia  0.2
23/12/2022 09:00 Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Pagatan Indonesia  0.2
22/12/2022 15:00 South Australia, Port Clinton Australia  0.2
25/12/2022 09:00 Queensland, Dauan Island Dauan Australia  0.2
23/12/2022 08:00 Kalimantan Tengah, Borneo Bapuju Indonesia  0.2
24/12/2022 06:00 Western, Jara Papua New Guinea  0.2
25/12/2022 06:00 Northern Territory, Numbulwar Australia  0.2
22/12/2022 14:00 South Australia, Port Neill Australia  0.2
26/12/2022 02:00 Queensland, Turtle Head Island Ok Village Australia  0.2
22/12/2022 14:00 South Australia, Edithburgh Australia  0.2
26/12/2022 02:00 Queensland, Hammond Island Port Kennedy Australia  0.2
25/12/2022 07:00 Western, Dibiri Island Maipani Papua New Guinea  0.2
25/12/2022 12:00 Queensland, Palilug Island Hammond I Australia  0.2
24/12/2022 12:00 Western, Mabaduan Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 17:00 Western, Kadawa Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 10:00 Western, Wabuda Island Gesco Papua New Guinea  0.1
26/12/2022 08:00 Gulf, Veraibari Papua New Guinea  0.1
26/12/2022 08:00 Gulf, Avioua Papua New Guinea  0.1
26/12/2022 08:00 Western, Katatai Papua New Guinea  0.1
26/12/2022 05:00 Queensland, Wonga Australia  0.1
25/12/2022 08:00 Western, Wabuda Island Dameramuda Papua New Guinea  0.1
26/12/2022 08:00 Gulf, Mira Papua New Guinea  0.1
22/12/2022 14:00 South Australia, Kangaroo Island Kingscote Australia  0.1
25/12/2022 22:00 Papua, Pulau Frederik Hendrik Selemit Indonesia  0.1
25/12/2022 09:00 Western, Aibinio Island Oromosapuo Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 14:00 Western, Parama Island Parama Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 08:00 Western, Sui Papua New Guinea  0.1
22/12/2022 15:00 South Australia, Kangaroo Island North Cape Australia  0.1
25/12/2022 23:00 Maluku, Pulau Penambulai Rabal Indonesia  0.1
23/12/2022 09:00 Western Australia, Lynton Australia  0.1
25/12/2022 23:00 Maluku, Pulau Workai Baimoeh Indonesia  0.1
25/12/2022 23:00 Maluku, Pulau Penambulai Kangoerma Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 10:00 Western Australia, Hermite Island Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
25/12/2022 13:00 Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Boenati Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 08:00 Gulf, Vailala Hiloi Papua New Guinea  0.1
26/12/2022 08:00 Gulf, Vailala East Papua New Guinea  0.1
26/12/2022 04:00 Gulf, Kea Kea Papua New Guinea  0.1
26/12/2022 05:00 Gulf, Ovahuhu Papua New Guinea  0.1
25/12/2022 17:00 Maluku, Pulau Sera Temin Indonesia  0.1
25/12/2022 17:00 Maluku, Pulau Wokam Karaum Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 09:00 Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Sungaianjar Indonesia  0.1
25/12/2022 17:00 Maluku, Pulau Aduar Bendjoering Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 03:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Timor Pitai Indonesia  0.1
25/12/2022 17:00 Maluku, Komfane Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 04:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Wotanglolong Indonesia  0.1
25/12/2022 19:00 Papua, Kipia Maparpa Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 03:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Toedameda Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 03:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Batutuah Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 04:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Lamakera Indonesia  0.1
25/12/2022 19:00 Papua, Paraoka Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 03:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Seda Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 11:00 Papua Barat, Kaisweri Indonesia  0.1
25/12/2022 20:00 Sulawesi Selatan, Pulau Bonerate Asambi Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 03:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Aplame Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 03:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Hala Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 04:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Koekoewerang Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 03:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Batuidu Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 04:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Balawelin Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 04:00 Nusa Tenggara Timur, Lewohajong Indonesia  0.1
26/12/2022 07:00 Papua Barat, Kampoeng Tagiri Indonesia  0.1
25/12/2022 08:00 Western Australia, Useless Loop Australia  0.0