Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
30 Jan 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 151 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (22 Jan 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 151 km/h 1.5 m 905 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 151 km/h 1.5 m 905 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar390,594 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 130 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 19 Jan 2023 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jan 2023 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2023 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 20 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 20 Jan 2023 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 20 Jan 2023 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2023 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 21 Jan 2023 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 21 Jan 2023 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 21 Jan 2023 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2023 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 22 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 22 Jan 2023 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 19 22 Jan 2023 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2023 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 23 Jan 2023 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 23 Jan 2023 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 23 Jan 2023 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 23 Jan 2023 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 24 Jan 2023 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 24 Jan 2023 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 27 24 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 28 24 Jan 2023 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 29 25 Jan 2023 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 30 25 Jan 2023 06:00 119 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 31 25 Jan 2023 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 32 25 Jan 2023 18:00 151 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 33 26 Jan 2023 00:00 130 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 34 26 Jan 2023 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 35 26 Jan 2023 12:00 112 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 36 26 Jan 2023 18:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 37 27 Jan 2023 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 38 27 Jan 2023 06:00 90 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 39 27 Jan 2023 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 40 27 Jan 2023 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 41 28 Jan 2023 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 42 28 Jan 2023 06:00 119 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 43 28 Jan 2023 12:00 115 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 44 28 Jan 2023 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 45 29 Jan 2023 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 46 29 Jan 2023 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 47 29 Jan 2023 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 48 29 Jan 2023 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 49 30 Jan 2023 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

905 mm

Up to 64.2 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMadagascar38,382 
500-750 mmMadagascar2,534,499 
250-500 mmMadagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Mauritius, Reunion14,952,353
+
Malawi1,761,805 
Mauritius1,230,236 
Mozambique680,883 
Madagascar10,778,172 
Reunion501,256 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Cocos Islands, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Reunion46,693,349
+
Indonesia45,188 
Tanzania9,065,993 
Zambia2,233,464 
Malawi13,945,439 
Mauritius109 
Mozambique11,029,597 
Comoros463,476 
Madagascar8,374,136 
Cocos Islands618 
Mayotte240,014 
Zimbabwe935,413 
Reunion359,897 
50-100 mmTanzania, Seychelles, Mauritius, Mozambique, Malawi, Comoros, Zambia, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Eswatini19,232,130
+
Tanzania10,247,453 
Seychelles96,471 
Zambia31,725 
Malawi1,545,075 
Mauritius42,859 
Mozambique5,165,616 
Comoros324,997 
Madagascar741,663 
Zimbabwe790,848 
South Africa111,419 
Eswatini134,001 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 192 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 275 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 111 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Blue 6 19 Jan 2023 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 19 Jan 2023 12:00 119 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2023 18:00 96 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mauritius
Blue 9 20 Jan 2023 00:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 20 Jan 2023 06:00 100 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 20 Jan 2023 12:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2023 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 21 Jan 2023 00:00 114 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 21 Jan 2023 06:00 117 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 15 21 Jan 2023 12:00 137 250 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique
Blue 16 21 Jan 2023 18:00 159 80 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Blue 17 22 Jan 2023 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 18 22 Jan 2023 06:00 137 150 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 19 22 Jan 2023 12:00 96 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 20 22 Jan 2023 18:00 120 10 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 21 23 Jan 2023 00:00 159 40 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar
Blue 22 23 Jan 2023 06:00 127 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 23 23 Jan 2023 12:00 87 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 24 23 Jan 2023 18:00 91 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 25 24 Jan 2023 00:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 24 Jan 2023 06:00 92 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 24 Jan 2023 12:00 116 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 28 24 Jan 2023 18:00 113 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 29 25 Jan 2023 00:00 120 90 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 30 25 Jan 2023 06:00 113 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 31 25 Jan 2023 12:00 164 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe
Blue 32 25 Jan 2023 18:00 170 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius
Blue 33 26 Jan 2023 00:00 132 110 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius
Blue 34 26 Jan 2023 06:00 102 -
- - - - - Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 35 26 Jan 2023 12:00 240 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 36 26 Jan 2023 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 37 27 Jan 2023 00:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 38 27 Jan 2023 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
Blue 39 27 Jan 2023 12:00 198 - - - - - - -
Blue 40 27 Jan 2023 18:00 172 - - - - - - -
Blue 41 28 Jan 2023 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
Blue 42 28 Jan 2023 06:00 160 - - - - - - -
Blue 43 28 Jan 2023 12:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 44 28 Jan 2023 18:00 92 - - - - - - -
Blue 45 29 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 46 29 Jan 2023 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 47 29 Jan 2023 12:00 103 - - - - - - -
Blue 48 29 Jan 2023 18:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 49 30 Jan 2023 00:00 391 1.1 million
- - - - Cocos Islands, Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, South Africa, Eswatini




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mMozambique66,282 
0.5 - 1.0 mTanzania, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa451,261
+
Tanzania65,511 
Mozambique237,405 
Madagascar148,279 
South Africa64 
0.25 - 0.5 mKenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa627,934
+
Kenya90,789 
Seychelles12,560 
Tanzania66,796 
Mozambique194,901 
Madagascar261,304 
South Africa1,582 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC