Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for WANDA-21
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 071447
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Wanda Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021

Wanda is no longer generating deep convection in association with
its low-level circulation. In fact, most of the colder cloud tops
seen on satellite over the center right now are actually upper-level
cirrus associated with a cold frontal boundary part of a
larger mid-latitude cyclone southeast of Greenland. In addition, an
1156 UTC ASCAT-B pass over Wanda's circulation shows that the north
side is beginning to open up into a trough as the cold front is
encroaching on the system. These above factors suggest that Wanda is
no longer a tropical cyclone, and the system is now classified as a
post-tropical low as of this advisory. The winds remain 35-kt based
on the peak wind retrieval of 33-kt from the scatterometer data on
the southeast side of the circulation.

The system has been accelerating to the northeast with the latest
estimated motion at 045/22 kt. The post-tropical cyclone should
continue to accelerate to the northeast until it merges with
the baroclinic zone approaching it. A 12 hour point is provided for
continuity and to indicate the transition to an extratropical
cyclone, though its quite possible the system will be fully
absorbed by the frontal boundary by then. The track guidance at
12 hours is tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast at that
time fame follows the consensus aids closely.

This is the last NHC advisory on Wanda. Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 40.2N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0000Z 43.5N 29.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 071445
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Wanda Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021

...WANDA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 33.5W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Wanda
was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 33.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph
(41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with further
acceleration through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to merge with a frontal system
tonight and dissipate by Monday.

Gale-force 34-kt winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Wanda. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 071444
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
1500 UTC SUN NOV 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 33.5W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 33.5W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 34.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.5N 29.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 33.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON WANDA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 070841
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021

Wanda is barely hanging on as a sheared tropical storm due to a
small burst of deep convection located in the southeastern quadrant.
The initial intensity has been maintained at 35 kt based on earlier
30-kt ASCAT data being co-located with the new burst of deep
convection. Little or no change in strength is expected during the
next 36 hours due to southwesterly vertical wind shear increasing to
more than 40 kt by 18-24 hours, and sea-surface temperatures
decreasing to less than 20 deg C beneath the cyclone. In the 18-24-h
period, Wanda is expected to merge with a rapidly approaching cold
front currently located to its west, becoming extratropical tonight
and dissipating over the far northeastern Atlantic on Monday.

The initial motion estimate is now 050/15 kt. There are no
significant changes to the previous forecast track and rationale.
During the next 24 hours or so, Wanda is expected to continue
accelerating northeastward ahead of a strong deep-layer trough and
associated cold front. After merging with the front system, the
extratropical low should maintain a fast northeastward motion until
it dissipates by 48 hours. The new NHC forecast track is very
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the
tightly packed consensus track models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 38.5N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 41.6N 31.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 46.6N 24.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/1800Z 51.1N 17.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070836
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021

...WANDA CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 35.5W
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 35.5 West. Wanda is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and the storm is
expected to continue accelerating northeastward through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so.
Wanda is forecast to merge with a frontal system tonight and
dissipate by late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center in the southeastern quadrant.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 070836
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0900 UTC SUN NOV 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 35.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 35.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 36.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 41.6N 31.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.6N 24.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 51.1N 17.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 35.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 070241
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021

Wanda has continued to weaken tonight. Only small bursts of
convection have occurred during the past several hours, and Wanda's
low-level center is starting to move away from the ongoing
convection in its southeastern quadrant. A 2220 UTC ASCAT-A pass
revealed a small area of 30-kt winds in this portion of the cyclone,
but the infrared cloud top temperatures have cooled in this area
since that data was collected. The initial intensity is lowered to
35 kt for this advisory, which lies on the higher end of the most
recent satellite estimates.

Wanda is beginning to move faster toward the northeast, and its
initial motion is estimated to be 050/12 kt. The cyclone will
continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within
the strengthening, deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with a
deepening mid-latitude low pressure system over the northern
Atlantic. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the
latest NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the previous
advisory.

Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for any further tropical development of Wanda. As the
cyclone races northeastward, it will encounter decreasing SSTs and
increasing deep-layer southerly shear within a dry mid-level
environment. Thus, Wanda's convective structure is unlikely to
improve over the next 24 h. The intensity guidance suggests the peak
winds could increase slightly later today, but this is most likely a
product of the system's increasing forward speed and its merger with
an approaching front. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast has
been lowered from the previous one. Wanda is still forecast to
merge with the front and become extratropical tonight, then
dissipate over the northeastern Atlantic on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 37.8N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 39.8N 34.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 44.4N 28.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/1200Z 48.9N 21.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070239
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021

...WANDA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 36.8W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 36.8 West. Wanda is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and the storm is
expected to continue accelerating northeastward through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next
day or so. Wanda is forecast to merge with a frontal system tonight
and dissipate by late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center in the southeastern quadrant.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 070238
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0300 UTC SUN NOV 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 36.8W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 36.8W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 37.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 39.8N 34.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 44.4N 28.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 48.9N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 36.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 062034
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

Convection associated with Wanda has decreased during the past
several hours, with only a small convective cluster occurring just
east of the center. In addition, scatterometer data received since
the last advisory suggests that the maximum winds have decreased to
near 40 kt. That will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

Wanda is starting its long-anticipated northeastward turn, with the
initial motion now 090/3 kt. Developing deep-layer southwesterly
flow on the southeast side of a large mid-latitude low pressure area
should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward during the next
12 h, with a fast northeastward motion continuing until Wanda
dissipates between 36-48 h. The track guidance is in good
agreement, and the new track forecast lies near the various
consensus models.

Despite the recent weakening, the intensity guidance still
forecasts some intensification during the next 12-24 h, possibly
due to increased upper-level divergence over the cyclone caused by
the mid-latitude low or the upcoming significant increase in
forward speed. The new intensity forecast will continue to call for
Wanda to strengthen for 24 h, although given current trends it would
not be surprising if it did not. The cyclone is expected to merge
with a cold front between 24-36 h, and the forecast follows the the
global model guidance in calling for the circulation to dissipate by
48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 37.0N 37.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 38.5N 35.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 42.2N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 47.4N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 062034
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

...WANDA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 37.8W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 37.8 West. Wanda is
moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). Wanda is expected to
turn northeastward at a faster forward speed tonight, and a fast
motion toward the northeast is expected Sunday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible through Sunday. After that time,
Wanda is expected to merge with a frontal system Sunday night
and dissipate Monday or Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 062034
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
2100 UTC SAT NOV 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 37.8W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 37.8W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 38.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N 35.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.2N 30.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 47.4N 23.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 37.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 061442
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

The structure of Wanda has changed little since the last advisory,
with a band of convection near the center in the northern
semicircle and more isolated convective cells elsewhere near the
center. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates range from 30-47 kt. Given the spread and the unchanged
structure, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The initial motion is 180/5 kt. Satellite imagery shows a large
mid-latitude low pressure system approaching Wanda from the west and
northwest, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn
northeastward during the next 12 h. After that, Wanda is expected
to accelerate toward the northeast. The current guidance is in
good agreement on the direction of motion, although it is a little
slower than the previous guidance. The new forecast track is
similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast.

Increasing upper-level divergence associated with the mid-latitude
low should allow Wanda to strengthen slightly during the next 24 h.
Afterwards, the cyclone is expected to merge with a cold front and
become an extratropical low. The global models subsequently
forecast this low to weaken to a trough by 60 h, and the new
intensity forecast shows dissipation at that time. Otherwise, there
are only minor adjustments to the previous intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 37.0N 38.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 37.6N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 40.5N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 45.3N 26.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1200Z 50.6N 18.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061441
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

...WANDA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 38.2W
ABOUT 615 MI...995 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 38.2 West. Wanda is
moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected later today, and a continued northeastward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. After
that, Wanda is expected to merge with a frontal system, becoming an
extratropical low Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 061441
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
1500 UTC SAT NOV 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 38.2W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 38.2W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 38.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.6N 36.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.5N 33.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.3N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 50.6N 18.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 38.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 060845
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

Wanda's convective structure has continued to evolve this morning,
with two earlier bands situated east and west of the well-defined
center now having consolidated into a solid band of convection with
cloud tops of -50C to -57C wrapping around the eastern semicircle.
The initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory based on
continuity with earlier 40-45 kt ASCAT data and the recently
improved convective structure.

The initial motion estimate is southward or 180/04 kt. Wanda is
expected to slow down further this morning and then turn sharply
northeastward this afternoon as a narrow mid-/upper-level shortwave
ridge passes to the north of the cyclone. A strong deep-layer trough
and associated frontal system are then forecast to approach Wanda
from the west by tonight, causing the cyclone to accelerate
northeastward on Sunday and Monday. The front is forecast to catch
up with Wanda in the 36-48-h period, resulting in extratropical
transition before the system is absorbed by a large, deepening
extratropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic early next week.
The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this
developing forecast track scenario, and the official forecast track
lies very near the the middle of the tightly packed simple- and
corrected-consensus guidance envelope.

Wanda's is now over what will be the warmest water for the remainder
of the cyclone's lifetime. The deep-layer shear is forecast to
remain around 10-15 kt for the next 24 h or so, while colder
aloft overspreads the cyclone, creating a little more instability.
This combination of positive environmental factors should continue
to produce deep convection near Wanda's center, possibly resulting
in some slight strengthening before the system becomes an
extratropical cyclone. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically
identical to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of
the various intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 37.4N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 37.5N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 39.4N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 43.6N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 48.7N 22.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/1800Z 54.2N 12.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 060841
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0900 UTC SAT NOV 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 38.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 38.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 38.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 37.5N 37.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.4N 35.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 43.6N 29.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 48.7N 22.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 54.2N 12.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 38.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

...WANDA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 38.3W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 38.3 West. Wanda is
moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion
with a further decrease in forward speed is expected to continue
this morning. A sharp turn toward the northeast is forecast to occur
by this afternoon, followed by acceleration toward the northeast
tonight, with that motion continuing on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, mainly in the western semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 060239
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

A dry mid-level environment appears to be hindering Wanda's
convective organization tonight. While infrared cloud top
temperatures have warmed within the eastern semicircle, a more
recent burst of moderately deep convection has been noted in the
northwestern quadrant of Wanda. A timely ASCAT-B pass just before
0000 UTC revealed a broad swath of 40- to 45-kt winds within Wanda's
western semicircle. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
held at 45 kt for this advisory.

A narrow mid-level ridge to the north and west of Wanda is steering
the cyclone southward. Its estimated motion is 185/8 kt, although
Wanda has been moving more south-southwestward over the past several
hours. The storm is expected to briefly slow down and meander over
the central Atlantic this morning as the steering flow collapses.
Then, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an
approaching mid- to upper-level trough located near Atlantic Canada
is forecast to cause Wanda to accelerate northeastward through early
next week. The global models indicate that Wanda is likely to merge
with a baroclinic zone by Sunday night, then become absorbed by a
deepening extratropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic early
next week. The latest track guidance is in good agreement, but it
has trended faster with Wanda's forward motion ahead of the trough,
which will likely expedite its extratropical transition. Some
along-track adjustments were made to the official NHC forecast,
which now shows Wanda becoming extratropical in 48 h and becoming
absorbed at 72 h.

Wanda's southward motion will bring the cyclone over slightly warmer
(22 deg C) SSTs today, and cold air aloft could result in enough
stability for Wanda to generate some more convection while the
deep-layer shear diminishes to less than 10 kt. But the dry
environment in which Wanda is embedded will continue to make it
difficult for the storm's organization to improve very much, as
suggested by the latest GFS and ECMWF-model simulated satellite
imagery. The latest NHC intensity forecast allows for just a bit of
strengthening this weekend, in good agreement with the IVCN/HCCA
consensus aids. By late Sunday and Monday, the aforementioned
upper-level trough will bring strong south-southwesterly shear over
Wanda while the cyclone moves over plummeting SSTs in the North
Atlantic. Baroclinic processes and a fast forward motion could allow
Wanda to briefly maintain its intensity, but a weakening trend
should commence on Monday before the cyclone is absorbed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 38.0N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 37.6N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 38.4N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 41.9N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 47.4N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/1200Z 54.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060238
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

...WANDA HOLDS STEADY...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 38.1W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 38.1 West. Wanda is
moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed is expected this morning, followed by a turn toward the
northeast later today and a faster northeastward motion on Sunday
and Monday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, mainly in the western semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 060237
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0300 UTC SAT NOV 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 38.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 38.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 37.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 37.6N 38.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 38.4N 36.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.9N 32.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 47.4N 25.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 54.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 38.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 052032
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

Wanda's convective cloud pattern appears a little more organized
within its eastern semicircle this evening per GOES-East visible
and infrared imagery. However, cloud tops have not cooled.
Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged and with the
lack of any new ASCAT data, the maximum sustained winds remain
unchanged from the previous advisory.

Wanda is moving southward between a shortwave ridge to its
northwest and a deep layer low to its south. The initial motion is
considered 180/8 kt; the shorter term motion is quicker, closer to
15 kt, but unlikely to maintain itself as it leaves a zone of
confluent flow. The southward motion is expected to continue into
Saturday. Starting late Saturday, a developing mid-latitude cyclone
south of Atlantic Canada will break down the ridge and the deep
layer low will migrate farther away. The cyclone near Canada is
expected to grow in size and intensity which will act to accelerate
Wanda and eventually absorb the storm. The latest track guidance
shows a sharper turn and has trended west during its period of
acceleration, which has led to a modest adjustment to the previous
forecast.

The southward motion should bring the center over slightly warmer
water during the next 24 hours, and during this time Wanda should be
in an area of light to moderate shear caused by the nearby deep
layer low. This environment should allow Wanda to maintain its
strength and perhaps strengthen a little. By 48 hours, the
approaching mid-latitude system will bring some upper level
diffluence which could offset the affects of increasing vertical
wind shear. Wanda is forecast to merge with a frontal zone by 72
hours, and by 96 hours system is forecast to be absorbed by
the mid-latitude low over the northeastern Atlantic. The new
intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 39.1N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 38.1N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 37.5N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 39.4N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 43.7N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 49.1N 23.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 57.6N 12.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roth/Taylor

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 052033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

...WANDA MOVES SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 37.4W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 37.4 West. Wanda is
moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday before turning and
accelerating to the northeast Saturday night into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Some minor intensification is possible through Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Taylor

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 052032
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC FRI NOV 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 37.4W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 37.4W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 37.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.1N 37.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 37.5N 37.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.4N 34.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 65NE 85SE 65SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 43.7N 30.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 49.1N 23.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 57.6N 12.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 37.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROTH/TAYLOR

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 051445
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

Wanda's cloud pattern has again changed little since the last
advisory, with bands of moderately deep convection currently
located mainly in the southern semicircle. Just-received ASCAT
data indicates an area of 40-45 kt winds mainly west of the center,
and based on this the initial intensity is a possibly conservative
45 kt. The ASCAT data also show that the wind field has expanded
on the west side, and the initial and forecast wind radii have thus
been modified.

The initial motion is now south-southeastward or 160/7 kt. A
southward motion is forecast during the next 24 h as a mid-level
ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. After that time,
a developing mid-latitude cyclone currently south of eastern Canada
will move close enough to break down the ridge and produce
southwesterly deep-layer flow around Wanda. This should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn northeastward and accelerate, with a quick
northeastward motion continuing until Wanda dissipates. The latest
track guidance is in good agreement, and the new forecast track lies
close to the various consensus models.

The southward motion should bring the center over slightly warmer
water during the next 24-36 h, and during this time Wanda should be
in an area of light to moderate shear inside of the circulation of a
nearby upper-level low. This environment should allow Wanda to
maintain its strength and perhaps strengthen a little. By 48 h, the
mid- latitude system approaching from the west should cause
increased shear, although the associated increased upper-level
divergence may offset any weakening caused by the shear. Wanda is
forecast to merge with a frontal zone by 72 h, and by 120 h the
system is forecast to weaken to a tough to the south of a large
mid-latitude low over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity
forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 40.6N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 39.1N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 37.9N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 38.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 41.0N 33.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 45.4N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 50.0N 22.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 57.5N 12.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 051444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

...WANDA NOW MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.6N 37.8W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 40.6 North, longitude 37.8 West. Wanda is
moving toward the south-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A southward
motion is expected this afternoon through Saturday, and a turn
toward the northeast is expected Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today and tonight, while
slight strengthening is possible on Saturday. Wanda is expected to
become an extratropical cyclone in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 051444
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
1500 UTC FRI NOV 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 37.8W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 37.8W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 37.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 39.1N 37.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 37.9N 37.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 38.2N 36.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.0N 33.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.4N 28.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 50.0N 22.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 57.5N 12.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.6N 37.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 050852
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

Wanda's cloud pattern remains about the same as it was yesterday
evening, with bands of moderately deep convection mainly over the
western half of the circulation. Dry and stable air is apparently
limiting convection over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone.
The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt for this advisory,
which is somewhat higher than Dvorak estimates but in good
agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. This seems
reasonable given that the cloud pattern has changed little
overnight.

The latest center fixes indicate that the cyclone is now moving
east-southeastward, or 120/5 kt. Wanda is expected to turn
southeastward today, and then southward on Saturday as a
mid-tropospheric ridge builds to the north and west of the
cyclone. After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to
approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at an
increasing forward speed. The official forecast is similar to the
dynamical track model consensus.

Since Wanda should move over slightly warmer waters and the shear
is not expected to increase during the next couple of days, this
should allow the storm to at least maintain its intensity or
strengthen a bit. After about 48 hours, vertical shear is
predicted to increase significantly. However, baroclinic
effects associated with an approaching strong front could offset
the weakening process. By 72 hours, the global models indicate
that Wanda will become embedded within the frontal zone, and thus
have made the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus model
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 41.8N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 40.3N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 38.2N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 37.8N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 39.3N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 43.0N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 47.5N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 53.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

...WANDA MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.8N 38.0W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 41.8 North, longitude 38.0 West. Wanda is
moving toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the
southeast is expected today, followed by a southward motion on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength or slight strengthening is expected
through this weekend. Wanda is expected to become an extratropical
cyclone in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 050849
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0900 UTC FRI NOV 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 38.0W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 38.0W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 38.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 40.3N 37.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.2N 37.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 37.8N 37.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.3N 35.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 43.0N 31.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 47.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 53.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.8N 38.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 050233
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

The cloud pattern of Wanda has generally changed little during the
past several hours. The storm is still producing bands of deep
convection near and to the west of the center, with dry and stable
air limiting the amount of convection on the east side. An ASCAT
pass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt
range, and based on that data and the Dvorak estimates, the initial
intensity is nudged up to 45 kt.

Satellite images indicate that Wanda has turned to the right, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 090/5 kt. Wanda is
expected to turn southeastward on Friday and then southward on
Saturday as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and west of the
cyclone. After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to
approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at increasing
forward speeds Sunday and Monday. The latest models have trended
southward during the next couple of days, and the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted in that direction.

Wanda will likely move over slightly warmer waters and into a more
unstable environment during the next couple of days, which should
allow the storm to maintain its intensity or strengthen slightly
during that time period. The global models all agree that Wanda will
merge with a strong front in about 72 hours. Therefore, the new NHC
forecast shows extratropical transition completing by that time
period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the
guidance in the short term, but is near the middle of the guidance
envelope after that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 42.3N 38.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 41.0N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 39.1N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 37.5N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 37.7N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 40.5N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 44.4N 29.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 50.8N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

...WANDA TURNS EASTWARD AND IS A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 38.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 42.3 North, longitude 38.7 West. Wanda is
moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the
southeast is expected on Friday, followed by a southward motion on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength or slight strengthening is expected
on Friday and this weekend. Wanda is expected to become an
extratropical cyclone in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 050232
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0300 UTC FRI NOV 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 38.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 38.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 39.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.0N 38.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 39.1N 38.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 37.5N 37.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.7N 37.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.5N 34.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 44.4N 29.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 50.8N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.3N 38.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 042042
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021

Wanda continues to maintain bands of moderately deep convection
near the center, mainly over the northwestern semicircle. The
cyclone also continues to show anticyclonic outflow. However,
cold air clouds continue to wrap around the southern side of the
circulation, and in the big picture Wanda still gives the appearance
of being embedded in a larger-scale baroclinic low. There has been
little change in the satellite intensity estimates since the
previous advisory, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

Wanda is starting its anticipated turn and the initial motion is now
045/5. During the next day or two, a narrow mid-latitude ridge is
forecast to build to the northwest of the cyclone, and this should
cause Wanda to turn southeastward and southward by the 48 h point.
By 60-72 h, another mid-latitude trough approaching Wanda should
cause a northeastward turn with acceleration, with this motion
persisting through the end of the forecast period. The new guidance
again shows a little more southward motion by 48 h than the previous
guidance, and the new forecast track is adjusted a little southward
near that time.

Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 h as Wanda
remains over sea surface temperatures of near 20C. By 48 h, the
southward motion brings the center over slightly warmer water, and
at that time the cyclone should interact with an upper-level low
that develops nearby. This combination could allow some
strengthening, and the intensity forecast show modest strengthening
from 24-48 h. Many of the guidance models continue to show more
strengthening and a higher intensity than the official forecast
between 48-72 h, and some adjustment may be needed to that part of
the forecast in later advisories if this trend persists. Between
72-96 h, Wanda is expected to merge with a frontal system and
become extratropical over the northeastern Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 42.4N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 41.9N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 40.1N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 38.5N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 38.0N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 39.2N 35.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 42.6N 32.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 49.0N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z 53.0N 12.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 042040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021

...WANDA EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD
DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.4N 39.2W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 42.4 North, longitude 39.2 West. Wanda is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
southeast is expected tonight, followed by a general southward
motion Friday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through Friday, with some
slow strengthening expected Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 042040
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
2100 UTC THU NOV 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 39.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 39.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 41.9N 38.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 40.1N 38.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.5N 38.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 38.0N 37.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.2N 35.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.6N 32.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 49.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 53.0N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.4N 39.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 041449
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021

Wanda continues to maintain bands of moderately deep convection
near the center, and the cyclone continues to display anticyclonic
outflow. However, cold air clouds are wrapping around the southern
side of the circulation, and in the big picture Wanda appears to be
embedded in a larger-scale baroclinic low. A recent ASCAT-A
overpass suggests that the maximum winds are now near 40 kt, which
is between the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is northward or 000/5 kt. During the next
couple of days, a narrow mid-latitude ridge is forecast to build to
the northwest of the cyclone, which should cause Wanda to turn
southeastward and southward by the 48 h point. By 60-72 h, another
mid-latitude trough approaching Wanda should finally cause the
system to begin to accelerate northeastward, with this motion
persisting through the end of the forecast period. The new
guidance shows a little more southward motion by 48 h than the
previous guidance, and the new forecast track is adjusted a little
southward near that time.

Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 h as Wanda
remains over sea surface temperatures of near 20C. By 48 h, the
southward motion brings the center over slightly warmer water, and
some modest strengthening is possible by that time. Many of the
guidance models show more strengthening and a higher intensity than
the official forecast between 48-72 h, and some adjustment may be
needed to that part of the forecast in later advisories if this
trend persists. By 96 h, Wanda is expected to merge with a frontal
system and become extratropical over the northeastern Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 41.9N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 42.1N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 41.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 39.1N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 38.1N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 38.7N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 41.0N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 48.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z 51.5N 13.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 041448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
1500 UTC THU NOV 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 39.6W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 39.6W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 42.1N 38.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 39.1N 37.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.1N 37.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 38.7N 36.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.0N 33.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 48.5N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 51.5N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.9N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 041448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021

...WANDA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
...EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.9N 39.6W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 39.6 West. Wanda is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow eastward
motion is forecast by tonight, followed by a faster south-
southeastward to southward motion by Friday and Friday night.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected through Friday, with some slow strengthening
expected Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 040847
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021

Wanda continues to exhibit bands of moderately deep convection, and
these bands are strongest most numerous over the western portion of
the circulation. The upper-level outflow has become better
defined, also over the western semicircle. Overall, however, the
intensity of the convection has diminished slightly over the past
several hours. The advisory intensity is held at 45 kt, which is
in agreement with Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from both SAB
and TAFB. This is also in good agreement with earlier
scatterometer measurements.

The initial motion continues to be just east of north, or 010/8 kt
along the eastern side of a mid-latitude shortwave trough. This
trough is expected to weaken very soon and Wanda should slow its
forward speed later this morning. During the next 48 hours, a
narrow ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the cyclone
and force it to turn eastward tonight and then southward on Friday.
By 72 hours, another mid-latitude trough approaching Wanda should
finally cause the system to begin to accelerate northeastward. The
dynamical model guidance is in reasonably good agreement on the
evolution of the steering pattern over the next several days.
There has been little change to the official track forecast, which
remains close to the model consensus, and near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

Although Wanda is located over cool 20-21 deg C sea surface
temperatures, it has been able to maintain some deep convection and
winds of 45 kt. On its projected path during the next day or two,
water temperatures beneath Wanda are not likely to get much cooler
and the upper-tropospheric temperatures are forecast to decrease
somewhat. This could allow for some slight strengthening, as
indicated by the official intensity forecast. In 4 to 5 days, the
global models show the system becoming embedded in a frontal zone
over the north Atlantic, so the NHC forecast calls for Wanda to
revert back to extratropical status by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 41.5N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 42.1N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 41.7N 38.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 40.1N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 38.4N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 38.2N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 39.8N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 47.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 52.0N 16.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 040846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021

...WANDA MOVING NORTH BUT EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AND
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 39.5W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 41.5 North, longitude 39.5 West. Wanda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northward
motion is expected through this morning. A slow eastward motion is
forecast by tonight, followed by a faster south-southeastward to
southward motion by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or
so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 040844
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0900 UTC THU NOV 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 39.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 39.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 42.1N 39.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 41.7N 38.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 40.1N 37.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.4N 37.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 38.2N 37.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.8N 35.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 47.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 52.0N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.5N 39.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 040233
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021

Wanda's convective pattern has waned slightly since this afternoon.
Earlier there were convective bands noted wrapping around the
center, but now the primary band only wraps around the southern and
western portions of the circulation. Subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite estimates have not changed appreciably since earlier
today, and recent scatterometer wind data and UW/CIMSS SATCON
estimates still support an initial intensity of 45 kt.

Wanda is moving northward or 005/08 kt. The track forecast reasoning
is unchanged once again. A mid-latitude trough approaching from the
west should cause Wanda to move northward for another 6-12 hours,
but after that time the trough is forecast to lift northward. As
subsequent ridging builds behind the trough, Wanda is expected to
turn sharply eastward, and then south-southeastward to southward on
Friday. Another mid-latitude trough moving across Newfoundland by
the weekend should finally cause Wanda to begin to accelerate
northeastward after 72 hours. The dynamical model guidance remains
in relatively good agreement on the evolution of the steering
pattern over the next several days, and the NHC track forecast is
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Despite Wanda being over 20-21C sea surface temperatures, some
cooling aloft is forecast over the next couple of days. That,
along with generally favorable upper-level winds could allow for
some slight strengthening within the next day or so. The global
models indicate that Wanda will merge with a frontal system on
Sunday, resulting in the system's transition into an extratropical
low. The updated NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous advisory and is a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 40.6N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 41.6N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 42.0N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 41.0N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 39.0N 37.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 37.8N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 38.1N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 44.7N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z 51.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 040232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021

...WANDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.6N 39.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 40.6 North, longitude 39.6 West. Wanda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northward
motion is expected through this morning. A slow eastern motion is
forecast by Thursday night, followed by a faster south-southeastward
motion by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 040231
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0300 UTC THU NOV 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 39.6W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 39.6W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.6N 39.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N 38.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.0N 37.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 39.0N 37.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 37.8N 37.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 38.1N 36.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 44.7N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 51.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.6N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 032050
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021

Wanda's overall convective pattern has continued to improve since
the previous advisory with a curved convective band now wrapping
almost completely around the center, resulting in a 50-60-nmi wide
banded eye feature. However, the horizontal thickness of the
convective band has been waxing and waning, and cloud tops are only
around -50C to -55C. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
are a consensus T3.0/45 kt, while UW-CIMSS SATCON intensity
estimates range from 34 kt to 44 kt, respectively. Based on these
data, Wanda's intensity is being maintained at 45 kt. Although a
distinct eye feature is now evident, which would suggest a stronger
storm, a lower intensity is warranted since the cooler water beneath
the cyclone is likely creating a more stable boundary layer, which
is likely inhibiting the normal downward mixing of higher winds
aloft. This physical assumption is supported by weaker wind speeds
noted in earlier scatterometer surface wind data.

The initial motion estimate is a little east of due north, or 010/09
kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track
and rationale. An approaching mid-/upper-level trough from the west
should continue to lift Wanda northward for the next day or so,
followed by slowing and a sharp turn to the east by Thursday night
as the aforementioned trough weakens and lifts out to the north of
the cyclone. Subsequent ridging behind the trough will then force
Wanda southeastward to southward on Friday, followed by another
abrupt turn and acceleration to the northeast on Saturday as a
second and stronger deep-layer trough captures the cyclone. Despite
this complexity in the evolving steering pattern, the latest NHC
model guidance is in very agreement throughout the 120-h forecast
period on this track scenario. The new NHC forecast track is very
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near or slightly
to the right of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus
track models.

The improved inner-core convective structure argues for at least
some slight strengthening during the next couple of days despite
the expected 20-21-deg-C sea-surface temperatures (SST) beneath the
cyclone. Some cooling aloft associated with the aforementioned
second upper-level trough may help to offset the negative effects of
the relatively cool SSTs on day 3. In the 96-120-h period, Wanda is
expected to interact, and eventually merge, with a cold front
and become an extratropical low pressure system with gale-force
winds. The new official intensity forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the intensity
consensus models IVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and Florida State FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 39.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 41.0N 39.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 41.9N 39.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 41.8N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 40.3N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 38.8N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 38.1N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 42.4N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1800Z 51.5N 19.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 032050
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021

...WANDA MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 39.5W
ABOUT 680 MI...1100 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 39.5 West. Wanda is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through early Thursday. A brief slowdown with
a sharp turn to the southeast is forecast by Thursday night,
followed by a southward acceleration on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 032049
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
2100 UTC WED NOV 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 39.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 39.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.0N 39.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 41.9N 39.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 41.8N 38.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 40.3N 37.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.8N 36.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 38.1N 36.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 42.4N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 51.5N 19.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N 39.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.11.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 8.4N 86.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.11.2021 0 8.4N 86.9W 1008 27
0000UTC 04.11.2021 12 8.9N 88.1W 1006 30
1200UTC 04.11.2021 24 9.1N 89.1W 1006 32
0000UTC 05.11.2021 36 9.5N 90.3W 1004 29
1200UTC 05.11.2021 48 9.7N 91.2W 1004 31
0000UTC 06.11.2021 60 9.8N 92.5W 1002 32
1200UTC 06.11.2021 72 9.4N 94.0W 1001 39
0000UTC 07.11.2021 84 9.1N 96.1W 997 42
1200UTC 07.11.2021 96 8.8N 98.7W 992 53
0000UTC 08.11.2021 108 9.1N 101.6W 987 57
1200UTC 08.11.2021 120 9.7N 104.7W 988 56
0000UTC 09.11.2021 132 10.8N 107.5W 995 48
1200UTC 09.11.2021 144 12.0N 110.0W 995 48

TROPICAL STORM WANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 38.3N 40.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL212021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.11.2021 0 38.3N 40.1W 992 35
0000UTC 04.11.2021 12 40.2N 39.6W 991 42
1200UTC 04.11.2021 24 41.9N 39.6W 992 39
0000UTC 05.11.2021 36 42.5N 39.1W 996 39
1200UTC 05.11.2021 48 41.4N 37.5W 1003 39
0000UTC 06.11.2021 60 38.4N 37.8W 1006 38
1200UTC 06.11.2021 72 36.8N 38.6W 1005 34
0000UTC 07.11.2021 84 37.0N 37.9W 1008 30
1200UTC 07.11.2021 96 38.3N 35.9W 1010 31
0000UTC 08.11.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.0N 105.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.11.2021 60 13.0N 105.9W 1006 21
1200UTC 06.11.2021 72 13.6N 107.9W 1006 28
0000UTC 07.11.2021 84 14.1N 110.1W 1004 32
1200UTC 07.11.2021 96 14.4N 112.5W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.11.2021 108 15.3N 114.8W 1002 36
1200UTC 08.11.2021 120 16.7N 116.5W 1002 35
0000UTC 09.11.2021 132 17.8N 117.7W 1003 31
1200UTC 09.11.2021 144 19.2N 118.4W 1007 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 30.0N 74.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.11.2021 96 30.5N 73.1W 1000 41
0000UTC 08.11.2021 108 33.6N 69.9W 993 48
1200UTC 08.11.2021 120 35.5N 66.2W 987 56
0000UTC 09.11.2021 132 38.0N 60.0W 979 51
1200UTC 09.11.2021 144 42.7N 52.7W 962 52


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031600

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 031458
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021

Wanda appears well organized this morning, with visible satellite
imagery indicating cyclonically curved convective bands wrapping
practically all the way around the circulation center. However, the
cloud top temperatures associated with this activity are not very
cold, peaking between minus 50 to 55 C in the deepest convection. An
ASCAT-A scatterometer pass at 1021 UTC also did not show much change
in the peak derived winds (39-kt), although the 34-kt radii have
expanded a bit. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates this morning
also remain unchanged at CI 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and CI 3.0/45 kt
from SAB. The current intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory,
assuming some undersampling in the scatterometer data.

The storm is moving a little faster to the north-northeast at 015/9
kt. The short-term track philosophy is fairly straightforward, as
Wanda continues to be steered generally northward by a narrow
mid-level ridge centered to the east of the cyclone. The track
guidance remains in good agreement on this evolution over the next
24 hours. Thereafter, the spread in track solutions increases quite
dramatically, owing to uncertainty related to the degree of
influence an approaching shortwave trough to the north has on Wanda.
For now, both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS solutions show this
shortwave trough bypassing the cyclone to the north, and in its wake
a narrow but sharp mid-level ridge develops west of Wanda, resulting
in the cyclone being steered back southward between 48-72 hours.
However, the spread in track solutions from both the GFS and ECMWF
ensemble members is very large at this time frame. In fact, the 06z
GFS ensemble track spread at 60 h is more than 500 n mi, far greater
than the average forecast track errors for that period. Finally, a
stronger shortwave trough is expected to pick up Wanda in the latter
portion of the forecast period, resulting in an abrupt acceleration
to the northeast. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one for the first 24 hours, but has been nudged a little
south between 48-72 h following the consensus aids. Given the high
spread of ensemble solutions beyond 36 h, the track forecast beyond
that time is of low confidence.

While Wanda's winds have not increased over the past 24 hours, its
structure on satellite imagery has improved, with convective banding
wrapping around the low-level center, aided by low vertical wind
shear over the system. Even though Wanda is over marginally warm
sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that decrease further along the
track over the next 36 hours, this negative factor will be offset by
cooling upper-level temperatures overhead. The trough forecast to
bypass Wanda to the north could also provide a bit of baroclinic
enhancement aiding ascent over the cyclone. Most of the intensity
guidance responds to this environment by showing some slight
strengthening and the latest NHC forecast now shows a peak intensity
of 50 kt in the 36-48 h time-frame. Afterwards, some increase in
shear and decreasing mid-level moisture may lead to weakening,
though this could be offset by Wanda moving back over warmer SSTs as
it tracks back south. The official intensity forecast is a bit
higher than the previous one, but ultimately still shows Wanda
losing tropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period as
it merges with an approaching mid-latitude trough.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 38.8N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 40.1N 39.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 41.4N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 41.9N 38.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 40.9N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 39.2N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 38.1N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 40.1N 33.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1200Z 47.1N 27.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 031454
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021

...WANDA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 39.8W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 39.8 West. Wanda is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion should continue through early Thursday. A brief slowdown and
sharp turn to the southeast is forecast by Thursday night with an
acceleration southward on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 031453
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
1500 UTC WED NOV 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 39.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 240SE 240SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 39.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.1N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.4N 39.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 41.9N 38.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 40.9N 37.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 39.2N 36.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.1N 36.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 40.1N 33.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 47.1N 27.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 39.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 030842
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021

Wanda has changed little in organization since yesterday evening.
Bands of moderately deep convection continue around the storm
center, but upper-level outflow is not as well-defined as in a
typical tropical cyclone. The advisory intensity estimate
remains at 45 kt, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite
estimate from SAB. This is also in general agreement with earlier
scatterometer observations. The cyclone remains fairly small, with
most of the stronger winds occurring over its eastern semicircle.

The storm continues moving a little east of north, or near 015/7
kt. Wanda should move on the eastern side of a mid-latitude trough
for the next day or so. After that time, the trough is likely to
weaken and this should result in the system slowing down and
turning eastward. In 2 to 3 days, a narrow mid-tropospheric ridge
is forecast to build to the northwest of Wanda which should cause
the cyclone to move southeastward. In 4 to 5 days, the cyclone is
expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of another mid-latitude
trough. The official forecast track is similar to the previous one
except a little more to the northeast in 36-60 hours. This follows
the latest simple and corrected model consensus solutions, and is
also close to the average of the latest ECMWF and GFS model tracks.

The system has maintained its intensity in spite of being over sea
surface temperatures of only about 23 deg C. Wanda will pass over
even cooler waters while it moves farther northward during the next
24 hours or so, which may make it difficult for the system to
produce much deep convection. However, the storm has been resilient
to seemingly hostile conditions so far, and the official forecast
calls for Wanda to maintain its intensity for much of the forecast
period. This is similar to the latest intensity model consensus
guidance. By 96 hours, however, dry air and shear are likely to
result in Wanda losing organized convection and becoming a
post-tropical cyclone. In 5 days, if not sooner, Wanda is likely
to merge with a frontal zone, and return to its former
extratropical status.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 38.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 39.3N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 41.0N 39.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 41.9N 39.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 41.6N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 40.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 38.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 39.7N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/0600Z 46.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 030842
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021

...WANDA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 40.0W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 40.0 West. Wanda is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through
early Thursday. An eastward motion at a slower forward speed is
anticipated by late Thursday, followed by a faster southeastward
motion by early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 030841
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0900 UTC WED NOV 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 40.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 360SE 240SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 40.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 40.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 39.3N 39.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.0N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 41.9N 39.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 41.6N 38.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 40.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 39.7N 34.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 46.0N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 40.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 030232
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021

Bands of convection have continued to wax and wane around the
center of Wanda over the past 6-12 hours, with a band currently
located over the western portion of the cyclone. A timely 2320 UTC
ASCAT-B overpass detected peak winds of around 40 kt and given the
known undersampling of that instrument for small tropical cyclones,
the 45-kt initial intensity is maintained. That is also supported
by a recent SATCON intensity estimate of 42 kt. The ASCAT data did
show that the area of tropical-storm-force winds has increased in
size over the eastern semicircle and now extends outward up to about
80 n mi in that portion of the storm.

Wanda is moving northward or 010/8 kt. The cyclone should continue
moving northward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough during
the next 24-36 hours. After that time however, the trough is
expected to weaken and lift northward causing Wanda to slow down
and turn eastward. After 48 hours, the track guidance has
continued its southward shift when a narrow ridge is forecast to
build to the northwest of the system. The NHC track forecast is
again shifted southward in the 60 to 96 h time period. By late in
the period, Wanda is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of
yet another mid-latitude trough. There is a bit more confidence in
the latest track prediction as the dynamical model guidance has
come into a bit better agreement, however additional southwestward
or westward adjustments during the middle portion of the forecast
period could be required.

Little overall change in strength is anticipated over the next
several days. As Wanda moves northward during the next day or so,
it will be moving over slightly cooler waters which could cause
the cyclone to struggle to produce deep convection. After day 2,
there are indications of increasing shear, but a nearby baroclinic
zone could help the system maintain its intensity. Later in the
period, shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are
likely to cause Wanda to become post-tropical, and by day 5 the
guidance indicates Wanda will merge with a frontal boundary and
become extratropical.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 37.3N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 38.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 40.1N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 41.2N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 41.2N 39.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 40.2N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 38.5N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 38.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/0000Z 43.5N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 030231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021

...WANDA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 40.3W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 40.3 West. Wanda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion should continue through early Thursday.
An eastward motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated
by late Thursday, followed by a faster southeastward motion by
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected over the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 030231
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0300 UTC WED NOV 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 40.3W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 360SE 240SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 40.3W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 40.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 38.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.1N 39.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.2N 39.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 41.2N 39.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 40.2N 38.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 38.5N 37.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 38.0N 36.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 43.5N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 022041
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021

Late-arriving 1201 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer data indicated that a
small patch of 40-kt winds was located about 30 nmi east and
southeast of the well-defined center. Owing to known undersampling
by the scatterometer instrument for tropical cyclones that possess a
small radius of maximum of winds (RMW), those 40-kt winds support
the previous advisory intensity of 45 kt. That 45-kt intensity
estimate has been maintained for this advisory based on Wanda having
developed a small, closed eye-like feature in shallow convection,
with a curved band of deeper convection having recently developed
in the RMW where those 40-kt ASCAT surface winds were detected.
Wanda's overall convective organization has improved with more and
tighter curved low-level cloud lines now evident in visible
satellite imagery.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 010/07 kt. There remain
no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning
through 60 h. Thereafter, however, the latest model guidance has
made a significant southward shift in the track on days 3-5. For the
next couple of days, Wanda is forecast to move slowly poleward ahead
of an approaching mid- to upper-tropospheric trough. As the trough
weakens and lifts out to the north of the cyclone on day 3, Wanda is
expected to move slowly eastward before being forced southeastward
to southward by a narrow shortwave ridge that is forecast to trail
the aforementioned trough. The GFS and UKMET models show Wanda
merging with a frontal system on day 4 and lifting out to the
northeast, whereas the ECMWF drives the cyclone farther south ahead
of the cold front and turns the system into a convective-free
post-tropical cyclone on day 5. For now, the official track forecast
remains similar to the previous advisory track through 60 h, and
then shows Wanda turning sharply southeastward on day 4, which is
well to the right of the previous forecast track. The cyclone is
then forecast to lift out to the northeast on day 5 as an
extratropical low pressure system after merging with a cold front.
The official forecast track is similar to the tightly packed
consensus models through 60 h, and then is to the left or north of
the consensus aids in the 72-120-h period. There is
lower-than-normal confidence in the forecast track after 72 h due
to the major difference between the GFS and ECMWF model solutions.

Wanda's robust low-level circulation should be able to continue to
mix out occasional dry air intrusions, allowing for inner-core
convection to redevelop and resultant slight strengthening to occur
during the next 24-48 h. However, if a band of moderate convection
ends up developing around the aforementioned eye-like feature, then
Wanda could strengthen a little more than currently forecast. By day
3 and beyond, slow weakening is expected due to a sharp increase in
vertical wind shear and a decrease in mid-level moisture. Based on
what now appears to be stronger baroclinic forcing in the 60-96-h
period, the status of Wanda has been changed to a tropical cyclone
on day 3, with the day 4 and 5 statuses indicating extratropical
transition due to merger with a frontal system. The new NHC
intensity forecast is basically just an update of the previous
advisory forecast, and remains close to an average of the intensity
consensus models IVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 36.6N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 37.9N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 39.5N 39.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 41.1N 39.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 41.8N 39.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 41.8N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 40.0N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 39.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1800Z 43.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 022041
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021

...WANDA GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 40.4W
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 40.4 West. Wanda is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion should continue overnight. A turn toward the north-northeast
is forecast by early Wednesday, followed by a northeastward motion
later on Wednesday. An eastward motion at a slower forward speed is
expected on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two. A
slow weakening trend is forecast to begin by late Thursday.

Wanda is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 022040
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
2100 UTC TUE NOV 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 40.4W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 360SE 300SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 40.4W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 40.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.9N 40.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 39.5N 39.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.1N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 41.8N 39.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 41.8N 38.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 40.0N 37.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 39.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 43.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 40.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021615

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.11.2021

TROPICAL STORM WANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 35.5N 41.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL212021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.11.2021 0 35.5N 41.0W 988 37
0000UTC 03.11.2021 12 36.8N 40.3W 989 39
1200UTC 03.11.2021 24 38.6N 39.9W 988 41
0000UTC 04.11.2021 36 40.7N 39.9W 988 43
1200UTC 04.11.2021 48 42.2N 40.3W 990 43
0000UTC 05.11.2021 60 42.5N 40.1W 992 42
1200UTC 05.11.2021 72 41.7N 38.5W 997 42
0000UTC 06.11.2021 84 39.7N 38.4W 1001 36
1200UTC 06.11.2021 96 38.8N 38.4W 1002 37
0000UTC 07.11.2021 108 39.9N 36.8W 1006 33
1200UTC 07.11.2021 120 43.1N 32.8W 1008 34
0000UTC 08.11.2021 132 47.8N 27.0W 1007 33
1200UTC 08.11.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 9.2N 88.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.11.2021 48 9.1N 88.6W 1007 24
0000UTC 05.11.2021 60 9.7N 89.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 05.11.2021 72 10.0N 89.8W 1006 26
0000UTC 06.11.2021 84 10.0N 90.5W 1004 28
1200UTC 06.11.2021 96 9.8N 91.4W 1003 32
0000UTC 07.11.2021 108 9.6N 92.8W 1001 35
1200UTC 07.11.2021 120 9.2N 94.9W 998 40
0000UTC 08.11.2021 132 9.3N 97.3W 995 47
1200UTC 08.11.2021 144 9.4N 99.9W 991 49

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.8N 107.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.11.2021 96 13.8N 107.3W 1007 26
0000UTC 07.11.2021 108 13.9N 109.0W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.11.2021 120 14.2N 110.6W 1005 32
0000UTC 08.11.2021 132 15.0N 112.7W 1004 36
1200UTC 08.11.2021 144 15.9N 114.6W 1004 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 32.5N 71.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.11.2021 132 32.5N 71.5W 1000 46
1200UTC 08.11.2021 144 35.2N 67.7W 995 48


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021615

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 021615

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.11.2021

TROPICAL STORM WANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 35.5N 41.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL212021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.11.2021 35.5N 41.0W MODERATE
00UTC 03.11.2021 36.8N 40.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2021 38.6N 39.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2021 40.7N 39.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2021 42.2N 40.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2021 42.5N 40.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2021 41.7N 38.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.11.2021 39.7N 38.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.11.2021 38.8N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2021 39.9N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2021 43.1N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2021 47.8N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 9.2N 88.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.11.2021 9.1N 88.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.11.2021 9.7N 89.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2021 10.0N 89.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2021 10.0N 90.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2021 9.8N 91.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2021 9.6N 92.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2021 9.2N 94.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2021 9.3N 97.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2021 9.4N 99.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.8N 107.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.11.2021 13.8N 107.3W WEAK
00UTC 07.11.2021 13.9N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2021 14.2N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2021 15.0N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2021 15.9N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 32.5N 71.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.11.2021 32.5N 71.5W WEAK
12UTC 08.11.2021 35.2N 67.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021615

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 021435
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021

After the overnight burst of deep convection and associated improved
organization, dry air has wrapped into the system from all quadrants
and has temporarily eroded Wanda's inner-core convection. Despite
the recent convective degradation, visible satellite imagery
indicates that the cyclone's low-level circulation has improved,
with well-defined, curved low-level cloud lines and shallow
convection having become more evident. Based on improved low-level
structure, the intensity estimate remains at 45 kt despite the
overall loss of deep convection.

During the past 6 h, Wanda has made the expected sharp left-hand
turn and is now moving northward, or 010/08 kt. There are no
significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Over the next couple of days, the latest model guidance is in
excellent agreement that Wanda should remain embedded within a
deep-layer trough, and gradually turn toward the north-northeast
later today, followed by a northeastward motion tonight and
Wednesday as the cyclone moves through the trough-to-ridge flow
pattern. By 48-60 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move toward the
east and east-southeast as a ridge builds to the northwest and west
of Wanda. The new NHC official forecast track is very similar to
the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the
simple- and corrected-consensus guidance envelope.

The aforementioned improved low-level structure should act to force
new convection later today and especially tonight during the
nocturnal convective maximum period. Thus, Wanda has another 24-36 h
to strengthen while the system remains over marginally warm
sea-surface temperatures (SST) near 23 deg C and within a
relatively low vertical wind shear environment. Thereafter, slow but
steady weakening is likely due to an increase in southwesterly wind
shear, a decrease in mid-tropospheric moisture, and a decrease in
SSTs. However, baroclinic effects associated with an approaching
mid-tropospheric trough from the west could partially offset the
weakening process. Wanda is expected become a post-tropical cyclone
around 72 h, but this could be delayed if the baroclinic forcing on
day 3 ends up stronger than currently expected. The new official
intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
intensity forecast, and is close to an average of the intensity
consensus models IVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 35.6N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 37.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 38.8N 39.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 40.7N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 42.1N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 42.7N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 42.5N 36.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/1200Z 41.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 07/1200Z 42.5N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 021434
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021

...WANDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 40.6W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 40.6 West. Wanda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion should continue this morning. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected this afternoon or evening, followed by
a northeastward motion tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 021434
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
1500 UTC TUE NOV 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 40.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 360SE 340SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 40.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 40.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.0N 40.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 38.8N 39.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.7N 39.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 42.1N 39.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 42.7N 38.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 42.5N 36.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 41.0N 33.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 42.5N 29.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 40.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 020840
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021

Wanda has become a little better organized since yesterday evening
with convection, albeit not very deep, now wrapping around the
center of the storm. Apparently the vertical shear over the
cyclone has relaxed somewhat, and the center is now more embedded
within the convection. This implies that some strengthening has
occurred and the intensity estimate is increased to 45 kt for this
advisory. This is also in agreement with a subjective Dvorak
satellite estimate from SAB. Interestingly, satellite-derived SST
analyses indicate that Wanda is currently located over a small patch
of warmer ocean waters, near 25 deg C.

The storm is moving a little faster toward the east-northeast, or
at about 060/7 kt. During the next couple of days, Wanda is likely
to remain embedded within a mid-tropospheric trough . A turn
toward the north is expected during the next 48 to 60 hours
while the system moves along the eastern portion of the
trough. Later in the forecast period, a ridge building to the west
and northwest of Wanda should force a turn toward the east and
east-southeast. The official forecast has been shifted to the
right of the previous NHC track at days 4 and 5, following the
latest dynamical model consensus. It should be noted that the GFS
model shows a track significantly farther south at this later time
frame.

Although Wanda will soon be moving over cooler waters, the SHIPS,
LGEM, and HCCA intensity guidance indicate that the system will
strengthen a little more in the short term, and then more or less
maintain its intensity for the next 48 hours or so. This is
probably due to fairly low vertical shear and relatively cool
upper-tropospheric temperatures during this time. Later, gradual
weakening is likely, due to increased shear and cool waters.
However baroclinic effects could at least partially offset the
weakening process. The official intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the corrected model consensus, HCCA, solution.
Around 72 hours, simulated satellite imagery shows a loss of
tropical cyclone-like cloud structure so the NHC forecast indicates
a post-tropical phase by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 35.0N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 36.1N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 37.8N 39.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 39.8N 39.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 41.6N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 42.6N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 43.0N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/0600Z 41.8N 33.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 07/0600Z 41.0N 29.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 020837
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021

...WANDA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 40.9W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 40.9 West. Wanda is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast and north-northeast is expected today,
followed by a generally northward motion at a slightly faster
forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 020836
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0900 UTC TUE NOV 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 40.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 360SE 300SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 40.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 41.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.1N 40.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.8N 39.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 39.8N 39.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.6N 39.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 42.6N 39.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 43.0N 37.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 41.8N 33.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 41.0N 29.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 40.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 020239
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021

The satellite presentation of Wanda indicates the system is
struggling with the effects of dry air and vertical wind shear
tonight. The center of the cyclone is partially exposed, with dry
mid-level air wrapping around the western and southern portions of
its circulation. The moderate to deep convection associated with
Wanda is displaced to the east and northeast of its center. A
partial ASCAT-B pass shows tropical-storm-force winds are occurring
in the southwestern quadrant of the storm. The latest objective and
subjective satellite estimates range from 35-40 kt, and the initial
intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Wanda is moving east-northeastward, or 75/6 kt. The complex steering
pattern over the northern Atlantic during the next several days
makes for a challenging track forecast. In the near term, Wanda is
expected to turn toward the northeast and north on Tuesday and
Wednesday as the cyclone is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough
over the north-central Atlantic. The track models are well clustered
for the first couple days of the forecast period, but then
significant differences emerge in the guidance at days 3-5. The new
GFS deviates from its previous run and shows the cyclone
accelerating eastward to northeastward as it eventually merges with
an approaching baroclinic system late this week. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF shows a narrow ridge building to the north and west of Wanda,
which slows its forward motion and eventually turns the cyclone
southward. The other global models generally lie somewhere in
between the divergent GFS/ECMWF solutions. Given the above average
uncertainty and lack of run-to-run model continuity, the NHC
official track forecast remains near or between the HCCA and TVCA
consensus aids.

Overall, little change in strength is expected during the next
several days. While the deep-layer shear is expected to diminish
through midweek, Wanda is forecast to be moving over sub-20 deg C
SSTs by Thursday. Thus, the cyclone only has a small window in which
to sustain enough deep, organized convection to support much
strengthening. Of course, if Wanda deviates from the official track
and races deeper into the mid-latitudes as shown by the GFS, it
would encounter even more hostile conditions and likely transition
to a post-tropical cyclone sooner than forecast. The official NHC
intensity forecast lies closest to the IVCN consensus aid, and
allows for a bit of strengthening in the near term similar to the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 34.5N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 35.3N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 36.9N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 38.8N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 40.9N 39.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 42.3N 39.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 42.9N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 43.2N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 07/0000Z 43.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 020237
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021

...WANDA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 41.6W
ABOUT 845 MI...1365 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 41.6 West. Wanda is
moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected today, followed by a slightly
faster northward motion tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 020237
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0300 UTC TUE NOV 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 41.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 360SE 300SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 41.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 35.3N 40.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.9N 40.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 38.8N 39.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.9N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 42.3N 39.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 42.9N 38.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 43.2N 33.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 43.0N 29.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 41.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 012049
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

Wanda is now moving east-northeastward and, as a result, has moved
to the east of the upper-level trough axis, while the parent
upper-low has detached and pulled out to the north. As a result,
Wanda has now made the transition from a subtropical cyclone to a
tropical cyclone. This meteorological metamorphosis has been
confirmed by ASCAT data from 1200-1300 UTC that showed Wanda now has
a small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 30-35 nmi, and that the
outer wind field has weakened and also contracted in size. The
intensity is being held at 40 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data
showing winds of 33-34 kt, and assuming that there is undersampling
owing to the relatively large footprint/resolution of the
scatterometer instrument.

The initial motion estimate is 070/06 kt. A complex steering flow
pattern is forecast to evolve across the northern Atlantic during
the next several days as a series of troughs and ridges in the
mid-latitude westerlies pass over and to the north of Wanda. This
will cause Wanda to make a zig-zag track across the north-central
Atlantic, moving poleward ahead of the troughs and equatorward ahead
of the ridges, resulting in a net eastward propagation toward the
western Azores. The latest NHC model guidance is in fairly good
agreement on the forecast track through day 3, but then diverge on
days 4 and 5, with the GFS and ECMWF taking the cyclone more
southward closer to the Azores and the remaining dynamical models
lifting out Wanda to the north of the Azores. The new NHC official
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and
follows a blend of the GFEX (GFS-ECMWF) and TVCA simple-consensus
models.

Some slight restrengthening will be possible during the next 48 h
or so due to a significant decrease in the deep-layer vertical wind
shear while Wanda moves over slightly warmer sea-surface
temperatures (SST) near 24 deg C. By 96-120 h, Wanda is forecast to
devolve into a post-tropical cyclone due to the unfavorable
combination of sub-20-deg-C SSTs, a significantly drier air mass,
and strong southerly wind shear in excess of 30 kt. The new NHC
intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous advisory and
is basically in the middle of the tightly packed intensity guidance
suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 34.2N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 34.7N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 36.0N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 37.8N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 39.9N 39.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 41.7N 39.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 42.8N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 43.4N 33.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 012048
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

...WANDA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 42.2W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 42.2 West. Wanda is
moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through early this evening.
A turn toward the northeast is forecast to occur tonight, followed
by a turn toward the north by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening will be possible during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 012048
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
2100 UTC MON NOV 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 42.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 330SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 42.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 42.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.7N 41.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.0N 40.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.8N 40.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 39.9N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.7N 39.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 42.8N 38.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 43.4N 33.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 42.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 011445
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

Wanda has been moving southeastward since the previous advisory and
has now moved back underneath the axis of the upper-level trough
that the cyclone is embedded in. However, strong northwesterly
vertical wind shear of 30-35 kt has persisted and has displaced the
deep convection into the southeastern quadrant. The initial
intensity has been lowered to 40 kt based on a blend of satellite
intensity estimates of 35 kt from TAFB, and 39 kt and 41 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively.

Although Wanda had been moving southeastward at 10-11 kt as of 1200
UTC, the most recent motion vector appears to be slowly eastward or
090/05 kt. Wanda and the parent upper-level trough should move
eastward this late morning and early afternoon, and then turn
northeastward by this evening, followed by a northward motion by
late Tuesday as southerly steering flow gradually develops between a
larger mid-latitude trough to the west and a ridge to the east. By
day 3, another mid-latitude ridge is forecast to build between Wanda
and the aforementioned larger trough, causing the cyclone to turn
eastward and then southward toward the westernmost Azores. The
latest NHC track guidance has shifted sharply to the east of the
previous forecast track through 72 hours, and the new official track
forecast has followed suit. However, the new advisory track lies
along the western edge of the guidance through day 3, and then lies
in the middle of the track guidance envelope on days 4 and 5.

Although Wanda has weakened slightly, some slight restrengthening
will be possible in the 24-60-h period when the shear is forecast to
decrease sharply down to around 10 kt while the cyclone remains over
23.5-24-deg-C sea-surface temperatures. The weaker shear conditions
should also help Wanda transition to a tropical cyclone. By 96 h,
however, Wanda is forecast to devolve into a post-tropical low due
to the cyclone moving over sub-20-deg-C water temperatures, into a
significantly drier air mass, and into strong southerly vertical
wind shear -- a detrimental combination that should cause the
convection to erode near the center. The new NHC intensity forecast
is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 34.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 34.1N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 35.0N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 03/0000Z 36.8N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 39.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 40.8N 39.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 42.3N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 43.6N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/1200Z 42.9N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 011441
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
1500 UTC MON NOV 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 43.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 390SE 330SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 43.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 43.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 34.1N 42.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 35.0N 41.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.8N 40.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 39.0N 40.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.8N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 42.3N 39.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 43.6N 34.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 42.9N 31.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 43.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 011441
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

...WANDA WANDERING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WEST OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 43.0W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 43.0 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
should continue this morning. A turn toward the northeast is
expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the north by late
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight fluctuations in strength are
anticipated during the next few days. However, Wanda could still
become a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 010927 CCA
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

Corrected initial position

Wanda is now located to the west of the axis of the upper-level
trough that it is embedded in. As a result, significant northerly
vertical wind shear has developed over the storm, and between this
and continuing dry air entrainment the associated convection is
less organized than 24 h ago. Various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and based
on continuity from earlier ASCAT data the initial intensity is held
at 45 kt.

After the earlier southwestward motion, Wanda is now turning
southeastward with the initial motion of 125/6. The storm and the
upper-level trough should move northeastward later today and then
northward by 36-48 h as southerly flow between a large
mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic and a
ridge east of Wanda becomes the dominant steering mechanism. After
72 h, another mid-latitude ridge is expected to build between Wanda
and the western Atlantic trough, and as a result the cyclone is
expected to turn eastward and then southward. The latest track
guidance shows a more northward motion than the previous guidance
between 36-60 h, and a more southward motion after 96 h. The new
forecast track has been nudged in those directions.

The intensity guidance suggests little change in strength during
the next several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue
to affect the system. However, the current shear is expected to
decrease during the next 24-36 h, and this should help the system
to transition to a tropical cyclone. By 120 h, Wanda is expected
to become a post-tropical low as cooler sea surface temperatures
and an even dryer air mass cause the convection to dissipate. The
new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 34.5N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 34.3N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 34.9N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 02/1800Z 36.2N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 38.2N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 40.1N 40.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 41.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 43.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 41.0N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 010925 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

Corrected initial position

...WANDA TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 43.9W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 43.9 West. The storm is
moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the northeast is expected by tonight followed by a turn toward the
north on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
However, Wanda may become a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 010922 CCA
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0900 UTC MON NOV 01 2021

CORRECTED INITIAL POSITION

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 43.9W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 43.9W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.3N 43.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.9N 42.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.2N 41.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.2N 40.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 40.1N 40.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 43.0N 36.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 41.0N 33.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 43.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 010846
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

Wanda is now located to the west of the axis of the upper-level
trough that it is embedded in. As a result, significant northerly
vertical wind shear has developed over the storm, and between this
and continuing dry air entrainment the associated convection is
less organized than 24 h ago. Various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and based
on continuity from earlier ASCAT data the initial intensity is held
at 45 kt.

After the earlier southwestward motion, Wanda is now turning
southeastward with the initial motion of 125/6. The storm and the
upper-level trough should move northeastward later today and then
northward by 36-48 h as southerly flow between a large
mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic and a
ridge east of Wanda becomes the dominant steering mechanism. After
72 h, another mid-latitude ridge is expected to build between Wanda
and the western Atlantic trough, and as a result the cyclone is
expected to turn eastward and then southward. The latest track
guidance shows a more northward motion than the previous guidance
between 36-60 h, and a more southward motion after 96 h. The new
forecast track has been nudged in those directions.

The intensity guidance suggests little change in strength during
the next several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue
to affect the system. However, the current shear is expected to
decrease during the next 24-36 h, and this should help the system
to transition to a tropical cyclone. By 120 h, Wanda is expected
to become a post-tropical low as cooler sea surface temperatures
and an even dryer air mass cause the convection to dissipate. The
new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 34.5N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 34.3N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 34.9N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 02/1800Z 36.2N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 38.2N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 40.1N 40.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 41.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 43.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 41.0N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 010846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

...WANDA TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 39.9W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 39.9 West. The storm is
moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the northeast east is expected by tonight followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
However, Wanda may become a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 010845
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0900 UTC MON NOV 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 39.9W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 39.9W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.3N 43.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.9N 42.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.2N 41.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.2N 40.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 40.1N 40.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 43.0N 36.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 41.0N 33.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 39.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 010236
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

Dry air continues to wrap into the circulation of Wanda, and
consequently, the system is only producing small fragmented
bands of deep convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago
showed maximum winds of about 45 kt in the northwestern quadrant
of the storm, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that
value. This intensity estimate is also in line with the satellite
classification from TAFB.

After moving east-southeastward for much of the day, Wanda has
abruptly turned southwestward with the latest initial motion
estimated to be 215/7 kt. This erratic motion is related to the
upper-level low that Wanda is co-located with. The storm is likely
to turn back toward the east-southeast or east on Monday and then
track to the northeast on Tuesday as the storm moves in the flow
between the associated trough and a building ridge to its east. By
Thursday and Friday, however, the models show another ridge building
to the north and west of Wanda, and that should slow its northward
progress and will likely cause the storm to turn eastward or
southeastward again by the end of the forecast period. The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted southward at days 4 and 5, trending
toward the latest models.

Wanda is likely to remain fairly steady in strength during the next
several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue to affect
the system. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Even though the
storm's intensity is not expected to change much, it will likely
transition to a tropical cyclone during the next day or so as it
continues to separate from the nearby fronts and upper low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 35.6N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 35.1N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 35.1N 42.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 02/1200Z 36.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 37.4N 40.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 39.2N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 40.9N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 43.1N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 43.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 010235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

...WANDA HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES ERRATICALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 44.1W
ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 44.1 West. The storm is
moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn back to
the east-southeast or east is expected on Monday, followed by a
turn to the north or northeast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 010235
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0300 UTC MON NOV 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 44.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 480SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 44.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 43.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.1N 43.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 35.1N 42.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.0N 41.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.4N 40.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 39.2N 40.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.9N 39.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 43.1N 37.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 43.0N 33.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 44.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 312042
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Sun Oct 31 2021

Wanda has struggled a bit this afternoon, as it appears that some
dry air has entrained into its circulation. Deep convection is now
mainly confined to a band wrapping around the eastern semicircle of
the cyclone. Remarkably, the 3 ASCAT overpasses today missed
the core of Wanda, however, the latest Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB, and the UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON remain consistent, and
indicate an initial advisory intensity of 45 kt.

The storm made a rather abrupt halt in its eastward motion this
morning, and for much of the day has been drifting westward, with an
initial motion of 90/1 kt. Wanda is expected to make a slow, nearly
180 degree turn to the south, east, then northeast through Tuesday
as it pivots around a mid-tropospheric trough. A faster northeast to
north motion is expected through Wednesday as ridging builds to the
east of the cyclone. The model guidance is in reasonable agreement
on this scenario, and there were only minor tweaks to this portion
of the NHC track forecast. Thereafter, the guidance has made quite a
startling change from the previous runs, and is now indicating that
a blocking ridge may build to the north of Wanda by late this week.
This is a major shift in the guidance from previous runs that showed
the cyclone accelerating northeastward into the mid-latitudes. The
latest NHC track forecast tries to adjust for this change by
indicating a slower forward speed and less poleward motion late in
the 5-day forecast period, but this remains well north and east of
the bulk of the guidance. There is also a large amount of spread now
in the guidance beyond 72 h, and therefore, that portion of the
track forecast is of low confidence.

The upper-trough supporting the subtropical nature of Wanda is
forecast to lift out to the northeast by Monday. In addition, over
the past day or so, with each passing advisory cycle the cyclone has
taken on a little more of the appearance of a tropical cyclone
versus a subtropical cyclone. Model guidance is in good agreement on
this transition occurring soon, as per the latest FSU phase space
forecasts. Therefore, Wanda is expected to transition to a tropical
cyclone by Monday. The recent ingestion of dry air may have ended
the chance for further strengthening of the storm, and the latest
NHC intensity forecast shows no change in strength over the next few
days. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes murky as there
is now a high level of uncertainty as to where Wanda may be headed
later this week. The previous NHC forecast had the cyclone moving
over much cooler waters late this week. However, the latest shift in
the track guidance suggests the cyclone could remain over the
current 24 degrees C waters throughout the next 5 days. Regardless
of the differing tracks and resulting sea surface temperatures
below, the cold pool of air in the upper troposphere that has been
giving Wanda a chance to maintain its deep convection will begin to
vanish by midweek, therefore, weakening is indicated in the
official NHC intensity forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast
was decreased slightly from the previous one, and is close to the
various intensity consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 36.3N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 35.7N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 35.2N 42.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 02/0600Z 35.6N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 36.8N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 38.6N 39.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 40.7N 39.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 44.1N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 45.4N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 312038
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WANDA CREEPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS...
...MAY TRANSFORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 43.2W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 43.2 West. The storm is
drifting toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow southward
motion is expected tonight, followed by an eastward motion on
Monday, then a turn to the northeast or north on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 312038
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
2100 UTC SUN OCT 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 43.2W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 540SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 43.2W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 43.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.7N 43.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.2N 42.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 35.6N 41.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.8N 40.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.6N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 40.7N 39.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 44.1N 37.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 45.4N 32.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 43.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 311453
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Sun Oct 31 2021

Wanda is gradually taking on characteristics of a symmetric
warm-core cyclone, with bands of organized convection now located
across both the northern and southeastern portions of the
circulation. The 500-mb heights are slowing rising, while some
cirrus outflow is becoming evident to the north of the cyclone.
Although Wanda is still considered a subtropical storm due to the
presence of the surrounding baroclinic circulation and
upper-trough, the baroclinic circulation has been getting more
detached from the storm over time. Even though the convective
structure continues to evolve, this convection has not been able to
become more concentrated near the system's core since last night.
Therefore, the initial advisory intensity remains 45 kt, which is
consistent with the latest average of the satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON.

The storm has slowed its forward motion and is now moving at 100/07
kt. A turn to the southeast is expected today as Wanda wobbles
within the upper-level tropospheric trough that it is embedded
within. The upper-trough is forecast to lift out on Monday,
leaving Wanda within the weak steering flow near a cutoff mid-level
trough. By Tuesday, a ridge is forecast to build to the east of
the cyclone, resulting in a turn to the northeast or north, along
with an increase in forward speed. By late this week, Wanda should
accelerate northeastward within the southwesterly mid-latitude flow.
The model guidance is in good agreement on this track scenario, and
the latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one.

Despite being over sea surface temperatures below the ideal warmth
to support a classic tropical cyclone, the colder-than-typical upper
tropospheric temperatures over Wanda should continue to help support
deep convection for the next few days. Therefore, some slight
strengthening is possible during that time. As mentioned above, the
upper-trough is expected to leave Wanda behind by Monday, which
should allow the cyclone to complete a tropical transition by that
time. Various global model solutions within the Florida State
University cyclone phase evolution forecasts agree with this
scenario taking place over the next 24 h. After 72 h, decreasing
water temperatures in the path of Wanda should cause the cyclone to
weaken and become post-tropical by the end of the 5-day forecast
period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous one, with the only change being the tropical phase of
Wanda beginning Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 36.4N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 35.9N 42.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 34.9N 42.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 02/0000Z 34.8N 41.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 35.6N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 37.4N 39.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 39.4N 38.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 43.4N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 47.2N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 311452
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WANDA SLOWING DOWN...
...MAY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 43.2W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 43.2 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the
southeast is expected today, followed by an eastward motion on
Monday, then a turn to the northeast or north on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and
Wanda could transition to a tropical cyclone by Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 311452
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
1500 UTC SUN OCT 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 43.2W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 540SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 43.2W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 43.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 35.9N 42.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.9N 42.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 34.8N 41.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 35.6N 40.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.4N 39.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 39.4N 38.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 43.4N 37.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 47.2N 30.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 43.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 310845
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WANDA MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 43.9W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 43.9 West. The storm is
moving toward the east-southeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) A turn
toward the southeast at a slower forward speed is expected later
today. A turn to the northeast or north is forecast to occur on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 310841
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Sun Oct 31 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with
Wanda has become better organized since the last advisory, with a
convective band now wrapping more than halfway around the center.
However, the cyclone remains embedded in a deep-layer baroclinic
circulation, and based on this structure, the system is still a
subtropical storm. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 40-50
kt range, and the intensity is set at a possibly conservative 45 kt.

The initial motion is a little slower toward the east-southeast at
105/14 kt. As mentioned in the previous advisory, a slower
east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during the next day
or so as Wanda moves with the deep-layer trough that it is embedded
within. After that time, the trough is expected to cut off, and
Wanda will likely meander on Monday before turning sharply northward
or northeastward by the middle of next week when the system moves in
the flow between the cut off low and a building ridge. By the end
of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn
northeastward in southwesterly mid-latitude flow. The new track
guidance is similar to the previous guidance, but is a little slower
after 72 h. Thus, the new forecast track is similar to the previous
track and also slower in the later periods.

Given the increasing organization, it is likely that Wanda will
strengthen some during the next 24 h. After that, the intensity
guidance suggests little change in strength through 48 h as the
cyclone moves over sea surface temperatures of 24 C. Beyond 48 h,
gradual weakening is expected as Wanda moves over colder waters,
with the system expected to become post-tropical due to a lack of
convection by 120 h. It should be noted that the GFS and UKMET
suggest the possibility that Wanda could transition into a tropical
storm by 48 h. However, due to the expectation that the cyclone
will continue to remain embedded in a cold upper-level trough, the
intensity forecast will not explicitly call for tropical transition
at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 36.5N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 36.2N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 35.3N 42.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 34.6N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 34.8N 40.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 36.2N 39.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 38.3N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 43.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 47.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 310840
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WANDA MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC..


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 43.9W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 43.9 West. The storm is
moving toward the east-southeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) A turn
toward the southeast at a slower forward speed is expected later
today. A turn to the northeast or north is forecast to occur on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 310840
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0900 UTC SUN OCT 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 43.9W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 540SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 43.9W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 36.2N 43.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.3N 42.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.6N 42.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.8N 40.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.2N 39.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.3N 39.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 43.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 47.0N 32.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 43.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 310233
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 30 2021

The non-tropical low that NHC has been monitoring for subtropical
transition over the central Atlantic appears to have completed the
process this evening. Satellite images indicate that there are no
longer fronts attached to the low, and showers and thunderstorms
have become concentrated near the center. The low has some tropical
characteristics (small radius of maximum wind and concentrated
convection) and some subtropical characteristics (co-located with an
upper-level trough and nearby fronts). The system is designated as
a subtropical storm for now since there appears to be more support
for that status. The initial intensity is estimated to be 45 kt
based on recent ASCAT data, which makes the cyclone Subtropical
Storm Wanda.

The storm has been moving east-southeastward at 18 kt. A slower
east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during the next day
or so as Wanda moves with the deep-layer trough that it is embedded
within. After that time, the trough is expected to cut off, and
Wanda will likely meander on Monday before turning sharply northward
or northeastward by the middle of next week when the system moves
in the flow between the low and a building ridge. Most of the
models agree on the general evolution, but there are notable speed
differences. The NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus
aids.

Wanda will likely maintain its strength during the next several
days. Although the system will remain over relatively cool waters
of about 23-24 C during the next couple of days, cold air aloft
should aid in the continued development of deep convection and could
allow the system to strengthen slightly during that time period.
Beyond that time, Wanda should begin to move over cooler waters and
that will likely end its opportunity to gain strength and lead to
post-tropical transition by the end of the forecast period. The
models are in good agreement on keeping Wanda steady state, and the
NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 36.2N 45.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 35.8N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 35.3N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 34.3N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 33.8N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 34.5N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 36.4N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 41.4N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 46.2N 35.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 310232
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0300 UTC SUN OCT 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 45.4W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 480SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 45.4W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 46.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.8N 43.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 35.3N 43.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.3N 43.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 33.8N 42.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 34.5N 40.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.4N 39.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 41.4N 39.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 46.2N 35.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 45.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 310232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 30 2021

...SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 45.4W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was
located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 45.4 West. The storm is
moving toward the southeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a slower
southeast to east-southeast motion is expected during the
next day or two. A turn to the northeast or north is forecast to
occur on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>