Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for VERNON-22
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 041200
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 04/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-VERNON) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3 S / 79.7 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/05 AT 00 UTC:
30.6 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/05 AT 12 UTC:
31.7 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THIS WARNING IS THE LAST ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO THE WARNING
FQIO20 FOR MORE INFORMATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040559
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 04/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-VERNON) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2 S / 80.0 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/04 AT 18 UTC:
30.1 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 95 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
31.1 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 040014
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 04/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-VERNON) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0 S / 80.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 TO LOCALLY 500 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/04 AT 12 UTC:
29.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 90 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/05 AT 00 UTC:
30.9 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 90 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 031818
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 03/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-VERNON) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9 S / 81.0 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 LOCALLY 500 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 310 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/04 AT 06 UTC:
28.0 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 85 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/04 AT 18 UTC:
30.0 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 90 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031216
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/7/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.6 S / 81.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 555 SO: 405 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/03/2022 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SO: 305 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 175

24H: 04/03/2022 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SO: 325 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 175

36H: 05/03/2022 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 425 SO: 345 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 165

48H: 05/03/2022 12 UTC: 31.7 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SO: 350 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 0

60H: 06/03/2022 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 425 SO: 305 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 165

72H: 06/03/2022 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 390 SO: 325 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 165

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/03/2022 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE INFRAROUGE
ET LA PASSE GMI DE 0920Z ONT MONTRE LA POURSUITE DE LA BAISSE DE LA
CONVECTION ET LE RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX PRES DU CENTRE DE
VERNON, PENDANT QUE LE PANACHE DE CIRRUS AU SUD DU SYSTEME S'EST UN
PEU ETENDU. CES OBSERVATIONS ILLUSTRENT LES PREMIERS SIGNES DE LA
TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE (EAUX DEVENANT MOINS CHAUDES ET HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT). NEANMOINS, LE SYSTEME A MONTRE UN BEL ENROULEMENT
NUAGEUX S'ORGANISANT AUTOUR D'UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL EN IMAGERIE
VISIBLE. PAR INERTIE, ET EN L'ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNEES OBJECTIVES,
L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 50 KT, MAIS RESTE ASSORTIE D'UNE
INCERTITUDE CONSEQUENTE.

VERNON CONTINUE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST,
GUIDE PAR LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'EST DU
SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU
SUD, QUI GLISSE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST ET VIENDRA INTERCEPTER
VERNON. LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTERA DONC GRADUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD
PUIS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER
LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES EN FIN DE SEMAINE, TOUT EN RESTANT LOIN
DES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME SOUFFRE ACTUELLEMENT D'UN
CISAILLEMENT MODERE A ASSEZ FORT DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPOSPHERE,
CONTREBALANCANT LA BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AU SUD DU SYSTEME EN
MARGE D'UNE BRANCHE DU JET SUBTROPICAL. DE PLUS, LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT FRANCHEMENT BAISSER A PARTIR DE CE SOIR ET VENDREDI
AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES. CELA DEVRAIT
FAIRE RAPIDEMENT EVOLUER VERNON VERS UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL A
PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET DEMAIN, MAIS L'INTERACTION AVEC UN
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT MAINTENIR UNE BONNE INTENSITE JUSQU'A
SAMEDI PAR DES MECANISMES BAROCLINES. VERNON DEVRAIT NEANMOINS
S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE EN GAGNANT
LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/7/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 81.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 555 SW: 405 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SW: 305 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 175

24H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SW: 325 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 175

36H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 425 SW: 345 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 165

48H: 2022/03/05 12 UTC: 31.7 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/06 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 425 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 165

72H: 2022/03/06 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 390 SW: 325 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 165

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/07 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0920Z GMI
PASS HAVE SHOWN DECREASING CONVECTION AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE
CENTER OF VERNON, WHILE THE CIRRUS PLUME TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
HAS EXPANDED A BIT. THESE OBSERVATIONS POSSIBLY ILLUSTRATE THE FIRST
SIGNS OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (SST BECOMING LESS WARM AND
INCREASING EFFECTS OF WIND SHEAR). NEVERTHELESS, THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN
A NICE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND AN EYE STRUCTURE IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. DUE TO INERTIA, AND IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER OBJECTIVE DATA,
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LEFT AT 50 KT, BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY.

VERNON CONTINUES ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, GUIDED ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS GRADUALLY
SLIDING EASTWARD AND WILL SOON INTERCEPT VERNON. THE TRACK WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
LEADING VERNON TO REACH EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES BY THE WEEK-END,
WHILE REMAINING FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR,
OFFSETTING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON
THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. MOREOVER, OCEANIC POTENTIAL
SHOULD FRANKLY DECREASE FROM THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SYSTEM OVER COLDER WATERS. THIS SHOULD MAKE VERNON RAPIDLY
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BEFORE TOMORROW, BUT THE INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN GOOD INTENSITY UNTIL SATURDAY BY
BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS. LATER ON, VERNON SHOULD WEAKEN MORE FRANKLY AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BY REACHING THE MID-LATITUDES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 031206
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 03/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 81.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/04 AT 00 UTC:
27.0 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 95 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/04 AT 12 UTC:
28.9 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 95 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030626
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/7/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.2 S / 81.4 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 595 SO: 465 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/03/2022 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 565 SO: 445 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 75

24H: 04/03/2022 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 585 SO: 455 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SO: 285 NO: 165

36H: 04/03/2022 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 595 SO: 470 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SO: 295 NO: 165

48H: 05/03/2022 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 610 SO: 480 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 405 SO: 315 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 75

60H: 05/03/2022 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 620 SO: 500 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 435 SO: 335 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 75

72H: 06/03/2022 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 640 SO: 510 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SO: 350 NO: 165

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/03/2022 06 UTC: 36.1 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 665 SO: 535 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 490 SO: 390 NO: 165

120H: 08/03/2022 06 UTC: 38.4 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 695 SO: 565 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 535 SO: 415 NO: 165

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

DE NOUVELLES DONNEES OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE DE LA NUIT DERNIERE (SMAP
0022Z, SMOS PARTIELLE A 0103Z) ONT MONTRE QUE LES VENTS MAXI DE
VERNON SONT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT PLUS FORTS QUE PRECEDEMMENT ESTIMES
(JUSQU'A 63 KT SUR LA SMAP). LES PASSES ASCAT D'HIER SOIR INDIQUAIENT
DES VENTS DE 45/50 KT, CE QUI, EN TENANT COMPTE DE LA SOUS-ESTIMATION
DANS CES GAMMES DE VENT, PEUT AUSSI CORRESPONDRE A DES VENTS REELS
D'AU MOINS 55 KT. LA BEST TRACK A DONC ETE REAJUSTEE A POSTERIORI
POUR LES ECHEANCES DU 02 MARS A 18UTC (50 KT) ET DU 03 MARS A 00UTC
(55 KT). D'AUTRES MODIFICATIONS SERONT PROBABLEMENT A APPORTER SUR
DES ECHEANCES PLUS ANCIENNES EN POST-ANALYSE. AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE VERNON S'EST
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT DETERIOREE, AVEC UN NET RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX ET UNE STRUCTURE RESTANT CISAILLEE, LAISSANT APPARAITRE LE
CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. LE DT EST EN
BAISSE A 3.0 ET LE MET/PT DESCEND A 2.5, AVEC UN CI A 3.5 PAR INERTIE
(EN TENANT COMPTE D'UNE LEGERE SOUS-ESTIMATION AUX RESEAUX
PRECEDENTS). L'INTENSITE FINALE FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DE LA NUIT DERNIERE ET L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE
STRUCTURE OBSERVE DEPUIS 00UTC, D'OU UNE ESTIMATION A 50 KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VERNON CONTINUE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU SUD, QUI GLISSE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST ET
VIENDRA INTERCEPTER VERNON. LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTERA DONC
GRADUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS, AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES EN FIN
DE SEMAINE, TOUT EN EPARGNANT LES TERRES HABITEES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME SOUFFRE ACTUELLEMENT D'UN
CISAILLEMENT MODERE A ASSEZ FORT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE,
CONTREBALANCANT LA TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AU SUD DU SYSTEME
EN MARGE D'UNE BRANCHE DU JET SUBTROPICAL. SON DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ
RAPIDE AUJOURD'HUI DEVRAIT NEANMOINS LUI PERMETTRE DE MAINTENIR UNE
POCHE D'AIR CHAUD PRES DU CENTRE, MAIS LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
VENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ACCENTUER EN RAISON DE L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST ET QUI DEVRAIT INTERAGIR AVEC LE SYSTEME PAR
DES MECANISMES BAROCLINES. DE PLUS, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT
FAIRE DEFAUT A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES
EAUX PLUS FROIDES. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES CONDUIRONT AINSI
VERNON A AMORCER DES VENDREDI UNE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE AU DELA
DU 26EME PARALLA LE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030626
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/7/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 81.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 595 SW: 465 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 565 SW: 445 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 75

24H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 585 SW: 455 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 285 NW: 165

36H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 595 SW: 470 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 295 NW: 165

48H: 2022/03/05 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 610 SW: 480 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75

60H: 2022/03/05 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 620 SW: 500 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 435 SW: 335 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75

72H: 2022/03/06 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 640 SW: 510 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SW: 350 NW: 165

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/07 06 UTC: 36.1 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 665 SW: 535 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 490 SW: 390 NW: 165

120H: 2022/03/08 06 UTC: 38.4 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 695 SW: 565 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 535 SW: 415 NW: 165

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5

NEW OBJECTIVE INTENSITY DATA FROM LAST NIGHT (SMAP 0022Z, PARTIAL
SMOS AT 0103Z) SHOWED THAT VERNON'S MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED (UP TO 63 KT ON THE SMAP PASS).
YESTERDAY'S ASCAT PASSES INDICATED WINDS UP TO 45/50 KT, WHICH,
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNDERESTIMATION IN THESE WIND RANGES, MAY
ALSO CORRESPOND TO ACTUAL WINDS UP TO 55 KT AT LEAST. THE BEST TRACK
HAS THEREFORE BEEN READJUSTED FOR THE 02 MARCH 18UTC (50 KT) AND 03
MARCH 00UTC (55 KT). OTHER CHANGES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE MADE ON
FORMER DATES IN POST ANALYSIS. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, VERNON'S
CLOUD PATTERN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED, WITH A CLEAR WARMING OF
CLOUD TOPS AND A SHEARED PATTERN, EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. DT DROPS TO 3.0 AND MET/PT ARE DOWN TO
2.5, WITH A CI LAGGING AT 3.5 (ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A SLIGHT
UNDERESTIMATION ON THE PREVIOUS ANALYSES). FINAL INTENSITY IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF LAST NIGHT AND THE
OBSERVED STRUCTURE'S DETERIORATION SINCE 00UTC, HENCE AN ESTIMATE AT
50 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VERNON CONTINUES IN A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION,
GUIDED BY THE MID-LEVEL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD BEFORE INTERCEPTING VERNON. THE TRACK WILL
THUS GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, LEADING VERNON TO REACH THE EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING INHABITED LANDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL SHEAR, OFFSETTING THE VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON THE EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH. ITS RATHER FAST MOVEMENT TODAY SHOULD
NEVERTHELESS ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH WARM AIR NEAR THE CENTER,
BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD THEN INCREASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM BY
BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS. MOREOVER, OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME TOO
LOW FROM THIS EVENING WHILE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER COLDER WATERS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO START EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 030611
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 03/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 81.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 65
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/03 AT 18 UTC:
25.7 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/04 AT 06 UTC:
27.8 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 90 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030012
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 03/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.4 S / 82.2 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 650 SO: 555 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 350 SO: 220 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/03/2022 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 510 SO: 295 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SO: 175 NO: 150

24H: 04/03/2022 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SO: 345 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 150

36H: 04/03/2022 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 470 SO: 380 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 155

48H: 05/03/2022 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 435 SO: 370 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 150

60H: 05/03/2022 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SO: 390 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 155

72H: 06/03/2022 00 UTC: 32.2 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 465 SO: 360 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 195 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/03/2022 00 UTC: 35.1 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 335 SO: 380 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 130

120H: 08/03/2022 00 UTC: 36.8 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 270 NO: 155

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- ET CI=3.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DURANT LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, A CONTINUE A
MONTRER DES SIGNES DE CISAILLEMENT. DE PLUS, L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES
REVELE UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES LARGE ET ASSEZ MAL DEFINI (CF
1929Z ET 2001Z EN 37 GHZ) SIGNES DES DIFFICULTES QUE RENCONTRE LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE A S'ORGANISER. L'INTENSITE RESTE ANALYSEE A 45
KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DE PHILOSOPHIE POUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
VERNON CONTINUE SA LANCEE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST
DU SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS
AU SUD, QUI GLISSE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN COURS DE SEMAINE.
DANS CE CONTEXTE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE VERNON S'ORIENTE GRADUELLEMENT
VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, AMENANT
VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES EN FIN DE SEMAINE, TOUT
EN EPARGNANT LES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VERNON NE DEVRAIT PAS DISPOSER DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES OPTIMALES POUR S'INTENSIFIER. LE SYSTEME SOUFFRE
ACTUELLEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A ASSEZ FORT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, CONTREBALANCANT LA TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD DU SYSTEME EN MARGE D'UNE BRANCHE DU JET SUBTROPICAL. LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR ET S'ACCENTUER EN
RAISON DE L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST ET QUI DEVRAIT
INTERAGIR AVEC LE SYSTEME PAR DES MECANISMES BAROCLINES. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT FAIRE DEFAUT, AVEC
L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
CONDUIRONT AINSI VERNON A AMORCER DES VENDREDI UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE AU DELA DU 26A ME PARALLA LE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030012
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 82.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 650 SW: 555 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 350 SW: 220 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 510 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 150

24H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 150

36H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 470 SW: 380 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 155

48H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 435 SW: 370 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 150

60H: 2022/03/05 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SW: 390 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 155

72H: 2022/03/06 00 UTC: 32.2 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 465 SW: 360 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/07 00 UTC: 35.1 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 335 SW: 380 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 130

120H: 2022/03/08 00 UTC: 36.8 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 270 NW: 155

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- AND CI=3.5-

THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHEAR. MOREOVER, THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE AND
RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW LAYER CENTER (CF 1929Z AND 2001Z IN 37 GHZ)
SIGNS OF THE DIFFICULTIES ENCOUNTERED BY THE DEEP CONVECTION TO
ORGANIZE ITSELF. THE INTENSITY REMAINS ANALYZED AT 45 KT.

NO CHANGE OF PHILOSOPHY FOR THE TRACK FORECAST: VERNON CONTINUES ITS
SOUTH-WESTERN MOTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS SLIDING
PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TRACK OF
VERNON IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VERNON TO REACH THE EXTRATROPICAL
LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE INHABITED LANDS
OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON SHOULD NOT HAVE OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE TO STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, OFFSETTING THE VERY GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON THE EDGE OF A
BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
CONTINUE AND INCREASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST, WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM BY BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS.
FROM THURSDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE LACKING, WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER WATERS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD
VERNON TO START AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL
ON FRIDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 030009
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 03/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 82.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/03 AT 12 UTC:
24.0 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 80 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/04 AT 00 UTC:
26.2 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021801
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 02/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 83.0 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 650 SO: 555 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 350 SO: 220 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/03/2022 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 520 SO: 295 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 165 NO: 150

24H: 03/03/2022 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 520 SO: 285 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 175 NO: 150

36H: 04/03/2022 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 510 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 215 NO: 140

48H: 04/03/2022 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 480 SO: 335 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 165

60H: 05/03/2022 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 465 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 155

72H: 05/03/2022 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SO: 345 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 150

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/03/2022 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SO: 345 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 130

120H: 07/03/2022 18 UTC: 37.5 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 220

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- ET CI=3.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST MAINTENANU DURANT LES 6 DERNIERES
HEURES, MONTRANT NEANMOINS DES SIGNES DE CISAILLEMENT. DE PLUS,
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES REVELE UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES LARGE ET
ASSEZ MAL DEFINI (CF IMAGERIE EN 37 GHZ) SIGNES DES DIFFICULTES QUE
RENCONTRE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A S'ORGANISER. L'INTENSITE RESTE
ANALYSEE A 45 KT, CONFIRMEE PAR LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT (1645UTC).

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DE PHILOSOPHIE POUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
VERNON CONTINUE SA LANCEE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST
DU SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS
AU SUD, QUI GLISSE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN COURS DE SEMAINE.
DANS CE CONTEXTE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE VERNON S'ORIENTE GRADUELLEMENT
VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, AMENANT
VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES EN FIN DE SEMAINE, TOUT
EN EPARGNANT LES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VERNON NE DEVRAIT PAS DISPOSER DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES OPTIMALES POUR S'INTENSIFIER. LE SYSTEME SOUFFRE
ACTUELLEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A ASSEZ FORT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, CONTREBALANCANT LA TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD DU SYSTEME EN MARGE D'UNE BRANCHE DU JET SUBTROPICAL. LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR ET S'ACCENTUER EN
RAISON DE L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST ET QUI DEVRAIT
INTERAGIR AVEC LE SYSTEME PAR DES MECANISMES BAROCLINES. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT FAIRE DEFAUT, AVEC
L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
CONDUIRONT AINSI VERNON A AMORCER DES VENDREDI UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE AU DELA DU 26A ME PARALLA LE.

IL N'Y A PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021801
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 83.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 650 SW: 555 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 350 SW: 220 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 520 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 150

24H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 520 SW: 285 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 150

36H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 510 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 140

48H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 480 SW: 335 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 165

60H: 2022/03/05 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 465 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 155

72H: 2022/03/05 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 345 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 150

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/06 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SW: 345 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 130

120H: 2022/03/07 18 UTC: 37.5 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 220

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- AND CI=3.5-

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS,
SHOWING NEVERTHELESS SIGNS OF SHEARING. MOREOVER, THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW LAYER CENTER (CF
37 GHZ IMAGERY), WHICH IS A SIGN OF THE DIFFICULTIES ENCOUNTERED BY
THE DEEP CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ANALYZED AT 45 KT, CONFIRMED BY THE LAST ASCAT PASS (1645UTC).

NO CHANGE OF PHILOSOPHY FOR THE TRACK FORECAST: VERNON CONTINUES ITS
SOUTH-WESTERN MOTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS SLIDING
PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TRACK OF
VERNON IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VERNON TO REACH THE EXTRATROPICAL
LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE INHABITED LANDS
OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON SHOULD NOT HAVE OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE TO STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, OFFSETTING THE VERY GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON THE EDGE OF A
BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
CONTINUE AND INCREASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST, WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM BY BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS.
FROM THURSDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE LACKING, WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER WATERS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD
VERNON TO START AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL
ON FRIDAY.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 021800
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 83.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/03 AT 06 UTC:
22.6 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 80 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/03 AT 18 UTC:
24.9 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 80 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 021500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 83.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 83.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.9S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.9S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.4S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.2S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.9S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 83.2E.
02MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 973
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: REPLACED EXTRATROPICAL WITH
SUBTROPICAL IN EXENDED OUTLOOK.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021236
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 02/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 83.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 705 SO: 630 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 350 SO: 205 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 535 SO: 305 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 155 NO: 140

24H: 03/03/2022 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SO: 305 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SO: 150 NO: 140

36H: 04/03/2022 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 535 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 155 NO: 150

48H: 04/03/2022 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 470 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 130

60H: 05/03/2022 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 465 SO: 350 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 155

72H: 05/03/2022 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 195 NO: 155

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/03/2022 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 455 SO: 220 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SO: 150 NO: 155

120H: 07/03/2022 12 UTC: 37.4 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SO: 435 NO: 230

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- ET CI=3.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A MONTRE QUELQUES FLUCTUATIONS DEPUIS LE
DERNIER BULLETIN AVEC UNE TENDANCE A LA DEGRADATION JUSQU'A 09 UTC
(CENTRE PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSE) PUIS S'AMELIORER QUELQUE PEU DEPUIS
AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT SIGNIFICATIF DE L'ACTIVITE PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES MONTRE UN CENTRE DE
BASSES COUCHES LARGE ET ASSEZ MAL DEFINI (CF IMAGERIE EN 37 GHZ) AVEC
UN MANQUE D'ORGANISATION DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE. L'INTENSITE RESTE
ANALYSEE A 45 KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DE PHILOSOPHIE POUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
VERNON CONTINUE SA LANCEE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST
DU SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS
AU SUD, QUI GLISSE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN COURS DE SEMAINE.
DANS CE CONTEXTE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE VERNON S'ORIENTE GRADUELLEMENT
VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, AMENANT
VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES EN FIN DE SEMAINE, TOUT
EN EPARGNANT LES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VERNON NE DEVRAIT PAS DISPOSER DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES OPTIMALES POUR S'INTENSIFIER. LE SYSTEME SOUFFRE
ACTUELLEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A ASSEZ FORT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, CONTREBALANCANT LA TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD DU SYSTEME EN MARGE D'UNE BRANCHE DU JET SUBTROPICAL. LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR ET S'ACCENTUER EN
RAISON DE L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST ET QUI DEVRAIT
INTERAGIR AVEC LE SYSTEME PAR DES MECANISMES BAROCLINES. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT FAIRE DEFAUT, AVEC
L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
CONDUIRONT AINSI VERNON A AMORCER DES VENDREDI UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE AU DELA DU 26A ME PARALLA LE.

IL N'Y A PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 83.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 705 SW: 630 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 350 SW: 205 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 535 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 155 NW: 140

24H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SW: 305 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 140

36H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 535 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 155 NW: 150

48H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 470 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 130

60H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 465 SW: 350 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 155

72H: 2022/03/05 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 155

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/06 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 455 SW: 220 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 150 NW: 155

120H: 2022/03/07 12 UTC: 37.4 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SW: 435 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- AND CI=3.5-

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN SOME FLUCTUATIONS SINCE THE LAST BULLETIN
WITH A TENDENCY TO DEGRADE UNTIL 09 UTC (CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED)
THEN IMPROVING SOMEWHAT SINCE WITH A SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW LAYER CENTER (SEE 37 GHZ IMAGERY)
WITH A LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY
REMAINS ANALYZED AT 45 KT.

NO CHANGE OF PHILOSOPHY FOR THE TRACK FORECAST: VERNON CONTINUES ITS
SOUTH-WESTERN MOTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS SLIDING
PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TRACK OF
VERNON IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VERNON TO REACH THE EXTRATROPICAL
LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE INHABITED LANDS
OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON SHOULD NOT HAVE OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE TO STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, OFFSETTING THE VERY GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON THE EDGE OF A
BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
CONTINUE AND INCREASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST, WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM BY BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS.
FROM THURSDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE LACKING, WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER WATERS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD
VERNON TO START AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL
ON FRIDAY.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 021203
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 83.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300-350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 340 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 380 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/03 AT 00 UTC:
21.5 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/03 AT 12 UTC:
23.4 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 265 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 75 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020629
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 02/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.6 S / 83.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 705 SO: 630 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 350 SO: 205 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 555 SO: 350 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 150 NO: 150

24H: 03/03/2022 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 530 SO: 315 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SO: 120 NO: 130

36H: 03/03/2022 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 175 NO: 150

48H: 04/03/2022 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 530 SO: 325 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SO: 185 NO: 140

60H: 04/03/2022 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 500 SO: 370 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 195 NO: 155

72H: 05/03/2022 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 490 SO: 350 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 175 NO: 150

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/03/2022 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 155

120H: 07/03/2022 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 520 SO: 415 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- ET CI=3.5-

LES PASS ASCAT DE 03Z-04Z CE MATIN ONT ETE BIEN UTILES POUR PRECISER
LA POSITION DU CENTRE AINSI QUE L'INTENSITE ET LA STRUCTURE DE
VERNON. SI L'ENSEMBLE DES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES
TABLENT POUR UNE INTENSITE ACTUELLE ENTRE 40 ET 50 KT, LES DONNEES
ASCAT DONNENT DES VENTS MAX JUSQU'A 45-50 KT DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 45 KT. LE CENTRE DE
SURFACE APPARAIT EN BORDURE NORD DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE. CELLE-CI
EST ASSOCIEE A DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE RECHAUFFANT SUR LES DERNIERES
HEURES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DE PHILOSOPHIE POUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
VERNON CONTINUE SA LANCEE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST
DU SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS
AU SUD, QUI GLISSE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN COURS DE SEMAINE.
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS,
AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES SUBTROPICALES EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, TOUT EN EPARGNANT LES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VERNON NE DEVRAIT PAS DISPOSER DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES OPTIMALES POUR S'INTENSIFIER. LE SYSTEME SOUFFRE
ACTUELLEMENT D'UN CISAILLMENT MODERE A ASSEZ FORT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, CONTREBALANCANT LA TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD DU SYSTEME EN MARGE D'UNE BRANCHE DU JET SUBTROPICAL. CE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR ET S'ACCENTUER EN
RAISON DE L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG PAR L'OUEST ET QUI DEVRAIT INTERAGIR
AVEC LE SYSTEME AVEC DES MECANISMES BAROCLINES. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT FAIRE DEFAUT, AVEC L'ARRIVEE
SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
CONDUIRONT AINSI VERNON A AMORCER DES VENDREDI UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE AU DELA DU 26A ME PARALLA LE.

IL N'Y A PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 83.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 705 SW: 630 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 350 SW: 205 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 555 SW: 350 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 150 NW: 150

24H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 530 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SW: 120 NW: 130

36H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 150

48H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 530 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 140

60H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 500 SW: 370 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 155

72H: 2022/03/05 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 490 SW: 350 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 150

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/06 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 155

120H: 2022/03/07 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- AND CI=3.5-

THE ASCAT SWATHS FROM 03Z-04Z THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL TO
SPECIFY THE POSITION OF THE CENTER AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY AND THE
STRUCTURE OF VERNON. IF ALL SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KT, THE ASCAT DATA
GIVE MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 45-50 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 45 KT. THE SURFACE CENTER APPEARS AT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS RECENTLY.

NO CHANGE OF PHILOSOPHY FOR THE TRACK FORECAST: VERNON CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, STEERED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THIS TRACK WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VERNON TO REACH THE
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON SHOULD NOT HAVE OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM
MODERATE TO STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, OFFSETTING THE VERY GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG A BRANCH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE AND
INCREASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST, WHICH SHOULD
INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS. FROM THURSDAY,
THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE LACKING, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
COLDER WATERS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO
START AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 020611
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 83.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250-300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 340 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 380 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/02 AT 18 UTC:
20.1 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/03 AT 06 UTC:
21.9 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 70 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 220302011409
2022030200 14S VERNON 011 02 225 06 SATL 050
T000 176S 0847E 045 R034 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 190S 0835E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 207S 0823E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 230S 0809E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 251S 0799E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 291S 0785E 045 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 84.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 84.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.0S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.7S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.0S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.1S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 29.1S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 84.4E.
02MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 952
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1422022400 128S 968E 15
1422022406 130S 961E 25
1422022412 131S 958E 30
1422022418 133S 956E 30
1422022500 135S 952E 35
1422022506 139S 944E 45
1422022512 145S 933E 70
1422022512 145S 933E 70
1422022512 145S 933E 70
1422022518 147S 925E 80
1422022518 147S 925E 80
1422022600 148S 908E 100
1422022600 148S 908E 100
1422022600 148S 908E 100
1422022606 147S 891E 115
1422022606 147S 891E 115
1422022606 147S 891E 115
1422022612 142S 880E 100
1422022612 142S 880E 100
1422022612 142S 880E 100
1422022618 128S 876E 100
1422022618 128S 876E 100
1422022618 128S 876E 100
1422022700 123S 874E 90
1422022700 123S 874E 90
1422022700 123S 874E 90
1422022706 119S 877E 65
1422022706 119S 877E 65
1422022706 119S 877E 65
1422022712 124S 891E 55
1422022712 124S 891E 55
1422022718 134S 889E 45
1422022800 136S 883E 40
1422022806 138S 877E 45
1422022812 139S 875E 50
1422022812 139S 875E 50
1422022818 142S 874E 45
1422030100 147S 872E 45
1422030106 158S 864E 45
1422030112 168S 856E 45
1422030118 172S 851E 45
1422030200 176S 847E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020033
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 02/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 84.3 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 705 SO: 595 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 295 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 650 SO: 530 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 95

24H: 03/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 665 SO: 535 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SO: 295 NO: 95

36H: 03/03/2022 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 685 SO: 545 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SO: 305 NO: 95

48H: 04/03/2022 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 705 SO: 555 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SO: 315 NO: 95

60H: 04/03/2022 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 720 SO: 565 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 95

72H: 05/03/2022 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 740 SO: 575 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/03/2022 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 770 SO: 595 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 415 SO: 360 NO: 95

120H: 07/03/2022 00 UTC: 35.7 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 805 SO: 610 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 435 SO: 380 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3 ET CI=3.5-

DEPUIS LE DERNIER RA SEAU DE PREVISION, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE A EVOLUE SUBTILEMENT VERS UNE CONFIGURATION
EN BANDE INCURVEE. LA ZONE DE CONVECTION PRINCIPALE N'A PAS CESSE DE
FLUCTUER AU COURS DE LA NUIT, EN RAISON DE LA PERSISTANCE DU
CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST, QUI S'EST TOUTEFOIS LEGEREMENT
ATTENUE DEPUIS LE RESEAU DE 18Z, GRACE AU RAPPROCHEMENT DE VERNON DE
L'AXE DE LA DORSALE. L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE INFRA-ROUGE PRESENTE UN
OUTFLOW BIEN MARQUE SUR LE VERSANT SUD-EST DU SYSTEME AINSI QU'UN BEL
ARC DE CISAILLEMENT SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DE VERNON. EN L'ABSENCE
DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES ET DE DONNEES SCATTEROMETRIQUES RECENTES, LA
LOCALISATION PRECISE DU CENTRE RESTE TOUJOURS UN PEU DELICATE A
IDENTIFIER. TOUTEFOIS L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE SUGGA RE BIEN
UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES LOGE EN BORDURE NORD DU CDO. L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE A ETE LEGEREMENT AFFAIBLIE A 40 KT, ET REPOSE SUR UN
CONSENSUS ASSEZ SOLIDE ENTRE LES DIFFA RENTES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES
ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

ON GARDE LA MEME PHILOSOPHIE POUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. VERNON
CONTINUE SA LANCEE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST DU
SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU
SUD, QUI GLISSE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN COURS DE SEMAINE. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, AMENANT
VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES SUBTROPICALES EN FIN DE SEMAINE, TOUT
EN EPARGNANT LES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VERNON NE DEVRAIT PAS DISPOSER DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES OPTIMALES POUR S'INTENSIFIER. EN EFFET, LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ACTUELLEMENT MODERE DEVRAIT NON
SEULEMENT SE MAINTENIR MAIS EGALEMENT AUGMENTER A NOUVEAU DES DEMAIN,
EN RAISON DE L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG PAR L'OUEST ET QUI DEVRAIT
INTERAGIR AVEC LE SYSTEME. CE CISAILLEMENT PARTICIPERA DANS UN SECOND
TEMPS A L'INJECTION D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU SYSTEME PAR LE NORD,
FINISSANT D'AFFAIBLIR DURABLEMENT VERNON. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, AU COURS
DE SON DEPLACEMENT GLOBAL VERS LE SUD-OUEST, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DEVRAIT EGALEMENT FAIRE DEFAUT, AVEC L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS
FROIDES. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES CONDUIRONT AINSI VERNON A
AMORCER DES VENDREDI UNE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE AU DELA DU 26A ME
PARALLA LE.

IL N'Y A PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 84.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 705 SW: 595 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 650 SW: 530 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 95

24H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 665 SW: 535 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 95

36H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 685 SW: 545 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 95

48H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 705 SW: 555 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SW: 315 NW: 95

60H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 720 SW: 565 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 95

72H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 740 SW: 575 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/06 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 770 SW: 595 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 415 SW: 360 NW: 95

120H: 2022/03/07 00 UTC: 35.7 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 805 SW: 610 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 435 SW: 380 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3 AND CI=3.5-

SINCE THE LAST FORECAST NETWORK, THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN HAS
EVOLVED SMOOTHLY INTO A CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE MAIN CONVECTION AREA
HAS NOT STOPPED FLUCTUATING OVER THE NIGHT, DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED SINCE THE 18 UTC NETWORK, THANKS TO THE DRIFT OF
VERNON, TO THE RIDGE AXIS. CLASSICAL INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW A
WELL-MARKED OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND A NICE
ARC SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF VERNON. GIVEN THE LACK OF
MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETRIC DATA, THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER (LLC) IS STILL A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY.
HOWEVER, CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LLC LOCATED AT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CDO. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED AT 40 KT, AND IS BASED ON A RATHER STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AVAILABLE.

WE KEEP THE SAME PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FORECAST TRACK. VERNON KEEPS
GOING ITS SOUTH-WESTERN TRAJECTORY, GUIDED BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VERNON TO REACH THE
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON SHOULD NOT HAVE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. INDEED, THE CURRENTLY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD NOT ONLY BE MAINTAINED BUT ALSO INCREASE AGAIN FROM
TOMORROW, BECAUSE OF THE ARRIVAL OF A UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND
WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
PARTICIPATE IN A SECOND TIME IN THE INJECTION OF DRY AIR ABOVE VERNON
HEART FROM THE NORTH, FINISHING TO WEAKEN DURABLY. FROM THURSDAY,
DURING ITS GLOBAL MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST, THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE LACKING, WITH THE ARRIVAL ON COLDER WATERS.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO START AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE INHABITED LANDS.

TRANSLATED WITH WWW.DEEPL.COM/TRANSLATOR (FREE VERSION)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 020009
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 84.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
430 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 320 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 380 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/02 AT 12 UTC:
19.3 S / 83.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 350 NM SW: 285 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/03 AT 00 UTC:
20.9 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 360 NM SW: 290 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 011827
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 01/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 85.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 295 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 185 NO: 130

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/03/2022 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SO: 270 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 150

24H: 02/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SO: 240 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 150 NO: 165

36H: 03/03/2022 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150

48H: 03/03/2022 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SO: 270 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 150 NO: 150

60H: 04/03/2022 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 155

72H: 04/03/2022 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SO: 285 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 150

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/03/2022 18 UTC: 31.6 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 150

120H: 06/03/2022 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX
AU SEIN DU CDO A LEGEREMENT FLUCTUE MAIS L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
MAINTENUE, AVEC ENCORE UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE SOUTENUE. SELON LES
DERNIERES ANALYSES DU CIMSS, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE VERNON
SUBIT TOUJOURS A L'HEURE ACTUELLE UN FORT CISAILLEMENT D'EST A
NORD-EST EN ALTITUDE. CE FACTEUR LIMITE SANS AUCUN DOUTE LE POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. AU VU DE L'EVOLUTION DE LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE AU COURS DE CET APRES-MIDI, ET COMPTE TENU DES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, L'INTENSITE RESTE
FIXEE A 45 KT EN LIMITE HAUTE DES DONNEES DU SATCON/ADT, CE QUI
POURRAIT A TRE UN PEU CONSERVATIF. LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EST
SITUA EN BORDURE NORD DU CDO COMME LE SUGGERAIT LA DERNIERE IMAGE
MICRO-ONDE DISPONIBLE (SSMIS DE 1045Z). EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNA ES
SCATTEROMETRIQUES DE QUALITE ET D'IMAGES MICRO-ONDE PLUS RA CENTES,
LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE EST UN PEU PLUS DIFFICILE A IDENTIFIER.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. VERNON
EMPRUNTE PROGRESSIVEMENT UNE DIRECTION SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST DU
SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU
SUD, QUI A TENDANCE A GLISSER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN COURS DE
SEMAINE. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS, AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES SUBTROPICALES EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, TOUT EN EPARGNANT LES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VERNON NE DEVRAIT PAS DISPOSER DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES OPTIMALES POUR S'INTENSIFIER. EN EFFET, LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ACTUELLEMENT MODERE A FORT DEVRAIT NON
SEULEMENT SE MAINTENIR MAIS EGALEMENT AUGMENTER A NOUVEAU DES DEMAIN,
EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG SITUE A PROXIMITE OUEST DE VERNON. CE
CISAILLEMENT PARTICIPERA DIRECTEMENT A L'INJECTION D'AIR SEC AU COEUR
DU SYSTEME PAR LE NORD, FINISSANT D'AFFAIBLIR DURABLEMENT VERNON. A
PARTIR DE JEUDI, AU COURS DE SON DEPLACEMENT GLOBAL VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT FAIRE DEFAUT,
AVEC L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES. LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES CONDUIRONT AINSI VERNON A AMORCER DES VENDREDI UNE
TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE AU DELA DU 26A ME PARALLA LE.

IL N'Y A PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 011827
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 85.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/02 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SW: 270 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 150

24H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SW: 240 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 165

36H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 150

48H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 150

60H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 155

72H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SW: 285 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 150

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/05 18 UTC: 31.6 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 150

120H: 2022/03/06 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE TEMPERATURE OF THE CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE
CDO HAS FLUCTUATED SLIGHTLY BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED,
WITH STILL SUSTAINED ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
CIMSS ANALYSIS, THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM VERNON IS STILL
UNDERGOING STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THIS
FACTOR UNDOUBTEDLY LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THIS
AFTERNOON, AND IN VIEW OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY REMAINS FIXED AT 45 KT AT THE HIGH LIMIT OF
THE SATCON/ADT DATA, WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CDO AS SUGGESTED
BY THE LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGE (1045Z SSMIS). GIVEN THE LACK
OF GOOD SCATTEROMETRIC DATA AND MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES, THE
LOCATION OF THE LLC IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST. VERNON IS
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING IN A SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION, GUIDED BY THE
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING
EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH TENDS TO SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE
WEEK. THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING
VERNON TO REACH THE SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK,
WHILE AVOIDING THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON SHOULD NOT HAVE OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. INDEED, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOULD NOT ONLY MAINTAIN BUT ALSO INCREASE AGAIN
FROM TOMORROW, ON THE EDGE OF A TALWEG LOCATED WEST OF VERNON. THIS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PARTICIPATE DIRECTLY TO THE INJECTION OF DRY
AIR IN THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH, FINISHING TO WEAKEN
VERNON DURABLY. FROM THURSDAY, DURING ITS GLOBAL MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE LACKING, WITH THE
ARRIVAL ON COLDER WATERS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD
VERNON TO START AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE 26TH PARALLEL
ON FRIDAY.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 011823 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 85.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
380 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/02 AT 06 UTC:
18.7 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 80 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/02 AT 18 UTC:
20.2 S / 82.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 90 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 011812
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 85.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/02 AT 06 UTC:
18.7 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 80 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/02 AT 18 UTC:
20.2 S / 82.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 90 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 011243
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 01/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 85.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 295 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/03/2022 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 380 SO: 280 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 140

24H: 02/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 400 SO: 295 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 140

36H: 03/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SO: 220 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 110 NO: 140

48H: 03/03/2022 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SO: 230 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 140

60H: 04/03/2022 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SO: 220 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 120 NO: 140

72H: 04/03/2022 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 140

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/03/2022 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 140

120H: 06/03/2022 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 325 SO: 215 NO: 250

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
VERNON S'EST AMELIOREE, RENFORCEMENT DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
(ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE PLUS FREQUENTE) AU SEIN D'UN CDO PLUS LARGE ET
PLUS COMPACT.
LES DERNIERES PASSES MICRO-ONDE DE 0753UTC ET 0929UTC ONT PERMIS DE
RELOCALISER LE CENTRE PLUS A L'OUEST PAR RAPPORT AU RESEAU DE 06UTC.
CECI PLACE DONC ENCORE LE CENTRE SOUS LA CONVECTION EN BORDURE NORD.
BIEN QUE EN LEGERE BAISSE, LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD SEMBLE ENCORE BIEN
GENER L'EVOLUTION DE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. CELUI-CI A ETE DECLASSE
TEMPETE MODERE AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 45KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. VERNON
EMPRUNTE PROGRESSIVEMENT UNE DIRECTION SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST DU
SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU
SUD, QUI A TENDANCE A GLISSER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN COURS DE
SEMAINE. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS, AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES SUBTROPICALES EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, TOUT EN EPARGNANT LES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE : LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE BIEN
MITIGE : LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ACTUELLEMENT MODERE,
POURRAIT AUGMENTER A NOUVEAU DES DEMAIN. LES AUTRES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MARQUEE EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE, BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, ET BON POTENTIEL HUMIDITE EN
ALTITUDE), RESTENT NEUTRES A MARGINALEMENT FAVORABLES JUSQU'A DEMAIN.
ENSUITE, AU COURS DE SON DEPLACEMENT GLOBAL VERS LE SUD-OUEST, VERNON
DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DES CONDITIONS DE MOINS EN MOINS FAVORABLES, EN
PLUS DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE, PARTICIPANT A SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF, PUIS A SA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE (
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN ALTITUDE, PUIS EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE,
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DIMINUANT DRASTIQUEMENT VENDREDI)

PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 011243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 85.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 140

24H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 400 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 140

36H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 110 NW: 140

48H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 140

60H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 120 NW: 140

72H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/05 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 140

120H: 2022/03/06 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 250

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF VERNON HAS
IMPROVED, REINFORCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (MORE FREQUENT
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY) WITHIN A WIDER AND MORE COMPACT CDO.
THE LAST MICROWAVE PASSES OF 0753UTC AND 0929UTC HAVE RELOCATED THE
CENTER FURTHER WEST WITH RESPECT TO THE 06UTC ARRAY.
THIS STILL PLACES THE CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASING, THE NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT STILL SEEMS TO
BE GENERATING THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ONE
HAS BEEN DECLARED MODERATE STORM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST. VERNON IS
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING IN A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH,
WHICH IS TENDING TO SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARDS DURING THE WEEK.
THIS TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING
VERNON TO GAIN THE SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK,
WHILE SPARING THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY : THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION SEEMS QUITE
MIXED : THE CURRENTLY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE
AGAIN FROM TOMORROW. THE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (MARKED UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE MARGIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL HUMIDITY POTENTIAL), REMAIN NEUTRAL
TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UNTIL TOMORROW.
THEN, DURING ITS GLOBAL MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST, VERNON
SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER AIR CONSTRAINT, PARTICIPATING IN ITS
PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING, THEN IN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN ALTITUDE, THEN IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, OCEANIC
POTENTIAL DECREASING DRASTICALLY ON FRIDAY)

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 011202
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 85.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/02 AT 00 UTC:
18.2 S / 84.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/02 AT 12 UTC:
19.4 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
CENTER RELOCATED FURTHER WEST FROM THE POSITION OF 06UTC.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 010612
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 86.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/01 AT 18 UTC:
18.1 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/02 AT 06 UTC:
19.1 S / 83.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010057
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 01/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 87.1 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 295 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 185 NO: 130

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/03/2022 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 465 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 35

24H: 02/03/2022 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 530 SO: 315 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 02/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 480 SO: 305 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

48H: 03/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 465 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 03/03/2022 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 465 SO: 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

72H: 04/03/2022 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 240 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/03/2022 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SO: 270 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 150

120H: 06/03/2022 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SO: 295 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 150

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
VERNON S'EST DE NOUVEAU REFROIDIE LAISSANT UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
PLUS MARQUEE QUE PRECEDEMMENT AVEC UN CENTRE RESTANT UN PEU PLUS SOUS
CETTE ZONE. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE DE 1939UTC A PERMIS UNE MEILLEURE
LOCALISATION DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES LE PLACANT DANS LA PARTIE
NORD-EST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE, EN ACCORD AVEC LA ZONE D'UN FORT
GRADIENT DE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT (GLOBALEMENT DE NORD) ANALYSEE PAR
LE CIMSS. LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE VERNON RESTE DONC DANS UN
CONTEXTE STATIONNAIRE EN INTENSITE AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE
DE 45KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. VERNON
EMPRUNTE PROGRESSIVEMENT UNE DIRECTION SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST DU
SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU
SUD, QUI A TENDANCE A GLISSER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN COURS DE
SEMAINE. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS, AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES SUBTROPICALES EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, TOUT EN EPARGNANT LES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN. LA TENDANCE
DE CERTAINES GUIDANCES A PROPOSER UNE TRAJECTOIRE DECALEE UN PEU PLUS
VERS L'OUEST SEMBLENT S'ESTOMPER. CELA JUSTIFIE LE MAINTIEN DE LA
PREVISION PRECEDENTE DU CMRS AVEC TOUTEFOIS UN LEGER RALENTISSEMENT,
NOTAMMENT EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES D'INTENSITE : APRES UN PHASE STATIONNAIRE
EN INTENSITE, VERNON VA ENTAME UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION TIMIDE
SOUS L'EFFET CONTREBALANCE DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE
D'ALTITUDE MODEREE A FORTE (D'APRES LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS) ET D'UN
ENSEMBLE DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SATISFAISANTES (DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE MARQUEE EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, BON POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, ET BON POTENTIEL HUMIDITE EN ALTITUDE). AU COURS DE SON
DEPLACEMENT GLOBAL VERS LE SUD-OUEST, VERNON DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU
ATTEINDRE TEMPORAIREMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE, AVANT QU'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE A DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CONTRIBUE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE JEUDI. DE PLUS, DES
VENDREDI, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT DIMINUER DRASTIQUEMENT AVEC
L'ARRIVEE DE VERNON SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES; LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES CONDUIRONT AINSI VERNON A AMORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT
UNE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010057
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 87.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 465 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 530 SW: 315 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 480 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 465 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 465 SW: 250 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

72H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 240 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SW: 270 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 150

120H: 2022/03/06 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE VERNON CLOUD PATTERN HAS COOLED DOWN
AGAIN LEAVING A MORE MARKED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN BEFORE WITH A
CENTER REMAINING A BIT MORE UNDER THIS AREA. THE 1939UTC MICROWAVE
PASS ALLOWED A BETTER LOCALIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PLACING IT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE AREA OF A STRONG WIND SHEAR GRADIENT (GLOBALLY FROM NORTH)
ANALYZED BY THE CIMSS. THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM VERNON REMAINS IN
A STATIONARY CONTEXT IN INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 45KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK. VERNON GRADUALLY TAKES A
SOUTH-WESTERN DIRECTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE THAT ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS TENDING TO
SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THIS TRACK WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VENRON TO REACH THE
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN. THE TENDENCY OF SOME GUIDELINES TO
PROPOSE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK SEEMS TO BE FADING. THIS
JUSTIFIES MAINTAINING THE PREVIOUS RSMC FORECAST WITH, HOWEVER, A
SLIGHT SLOWDOWN, ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE RANGE.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY: AFTER A STATIONARY PHASE IN
INTENSITY, VERNON WILL BEGIN A PHASE OF TIMID INTENSIFICATION UNDER
THE COUNTERBALANCING EFFECT OF THE PERSISTENCE OF A MODERATE TO
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT (ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSES) AND OF A
SET OF SATISFACTORY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (MARKED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AT THE MARGIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL). DURING ITS
GLOBAL SOUTH-WESTERN MOVEMENT, VERNON SHOULD AGAIN TEMPORARILY REACH
THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BEFORE A
NORTH-WESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE CONTRIBUTES TO THE REGULAR WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
FROM THURSDAY. MOREOVER, FROM FRIDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD
DECREASE DRASTICALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF VERNON ON COLDER WATERS; THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO BEGIN A PROGRESSIVE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 010002
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 87.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/01 AT 12 UTC:
17.0 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/02 AT 00 UTC:
18.6 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281810
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.8 S / 87.0 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 295 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 185 NO: 130

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 110

24H: 01/03/2022 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 75

36H: 02/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 480 SO: 260 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75

48H: 02/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 490 SO: 240 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75

60H: 03/03/2022 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 455 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75

72H: 03/03/2022 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 445 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/03/2022 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 140

120H: 05/03/2022 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
RECHAUFFEE ET LE CENTRE SEMBLE S'ETRE REPLACE SOUS L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE LA PLUS MARQUEE. CETTE LOCALISATION EST CEPENDANT PEU
PRECISE, LES DERNIERES DONNEES ASCAT DE 1629UTC EN BORD DE FAUCHEE ET
LA PASSE SSMI DE 1244UTC SONT PEU INFORMATIVES SUR LA LOCALISATION.
LA CONFIGURATION EN CDO SE MAINTIENT MALGRE LA PRESENCE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT D'EST-NORD-EST ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS. DANS CES
CONDITIONS, VERNON MAINTIENT SON INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 45KT PRESENTANT
AINSI UNE PHASE STATIONNAIRE QUI POURRAIT DURER UN PEU MOINS DE 24H.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. VERNON
EMPRUNTE UNE DIRECTION SUD-SUD-OUEST VOIRE SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST
DU SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS
AU SUD, QUI A TENDANCE A GLISSER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN COURS
DE SEMAINE. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS, AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES SUBTROPICALES EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, TOUT EN EPARGNANT LES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN. CERTAINES
GUIDANCES PROPOSENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE DECALEE UN PEU PLUS VERS L'OUEST
AU FIL DES RESEAUX, TRADUISANT UNE CHRONOLOGIE UN PEU DIFFERENTE DE
LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE PLUS AU SUD ET DECALAGE DES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS SE SITUANT A L'EST. CETTE TENDANCE N'EST PAS POUR LE
MOMENT SUIVIE PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION, QUI RESTE PROCHE D'UN
CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VERNON CONTINUE UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION
TIMIDE SOUS L'EFFET CONTREBALANCE DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE
D'ALTITUDE MODEREE A FORTE DE SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST (D'APRES LES
ANALYSES DU CIMSS) ET D'UN ENSEMBLE DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
SATISFAISANTES (DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MARQUEE EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE, BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, ET BON POTENTIEL HUMIDITE EN
ALTITUDE). AU COURS DE SON DEPLACEMENT GLOBAL VERS LE SUD-OUEST,
VERNON DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU ATTEINDRE TEMPORAIREMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVANT QU'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST
ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CONTRIBUE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE JEUDI. DE PLUS, DES
VENDREDI, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT DIMINUER DRASTIQUEMENT AVEC
L'ARRIVEE DE VERNON SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES; LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES CONDUIRONT AINSI VERNON A AMORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT
UNE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281810
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 87.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/01 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 110

24H: 2022/03/01 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 75

36H: 2022/03/02 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 480 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 490 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

60H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 455 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

72H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 445 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 140

120H: 2022/03/05 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE VERNON CLOUD PATTERN HAS WARMED UP AND
THE CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE MOVED BACK UNDER THE MOST MARKED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS LOCATION IS HOWEVER NOT VERY PRECISE, THE LAST ASCAT
SWATH OF 1629UTC AT THE EDGE OF THE SWATH AND THE SSMI PASS OF
1244UTC ARE NOT VERY INFORMATIVE ABOUT THE LOCATION. THE CDO
CONFIGURATION IS MAINTAINED DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN EAST-NORTHEAST
SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE CIMSS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, VERNON MAINTAINS
ITS ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 45KT, THUS PRESENTING A STATIONARY PHASE
THAT COULD LAST A LITTLE LESS THAN 24 HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK. VERNON IS MOVING IN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION, GUIDED BY THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE THAT ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH,
WHICH IS TENDING TO SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK.
THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING VENRON TO
REACH THE SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING
THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN. SOME GUIDELINES PROPOSE A TRACK
SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST DURING THE PERIOD OF THE
ANALISYS TIMES, REFLECTING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT CHRONOLOGY OF THE
DYNAMICS OF ALTITUDE MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT OF THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED TO THE EAST. THIS TENDENCY IS NOT FOLLOWED FOR
THE MOMENT BY THE RSMC OF THE REUNION, WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO A
GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDELINES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON CONTINUES A TIMID INTENSIFICATION PHASE
UNDER THE COUNTERBALANCING EFFECT OF THE PERSISTENCE OF A MODERATE TO
STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT (ACCORDING TO CIMSS
ANALYSES) AND OF A SET OF SATISFACTORY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MARKED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE MARGIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
POTENTIAL). DURING ITS GLOBAL SOUTH-WESTERN MOVEMENT, VERNON SHOULD
AGAIN TEMPORARILY REACH THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, BEFORE A NORTH-WESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSIONS
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE CONTRIBUTES TO THE REGULAR
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FROM THURSDAY. MOREOVER, FROM FRIDAY, THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE DRASTICALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
VERNON ON COLDER WATERS; THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD
VERNON TO BEGIN A PROGRESSIVE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 281801
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 87.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.3 S / 85.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/01 AT 18 UTC:
17.9 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281300
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 87.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 295 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 185 NO: 130

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 400 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 100

24H: 01/03/2022 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 480 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 140

36H: 02/03/2022 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 530 SO: 325 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

48H: 02/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 490 SO: 325 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 85

60H: 03/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 465 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 85

72H: 03/03/2022 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 425 SO: 280 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/03/2022 12 UTC: 27.9 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SO: 260 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 175

120H: 05/03/2022 12 UTC: 31.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, SOUS L'EFFET PERSISTANT DU FORT
CISAILLEMENT D'EST A NORD-EST DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE VERNON EST RESTEE CISAILLEE, BIEN QUE LA
STRUCTURE AIT ADOPTE TEMPORAIREMENT UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE PEU
APRES 06Z. LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES PEINE A RENTRER COMPLETEMENT
AU SEIN DU CDO ET RESTE SITUE EN BORDURE SUD-EST DE CELUI-CI.
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AU SEIN DE CE CDO A LEGEREMENT FLUCTUA EN
DEBUT D'APRES-MIDI, MAIS LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SONT RESTES FROIDS AVEC
UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE IMPORTANTE QUI DENOTE UNE ORGANISATION QUI
TENTE DE SE METTRE EN PLACE. L'APRECIATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE DE
VERNON, N'A PAS ETE RENDUE POSSIBLE EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES
MICRO-ONDE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE A ETE LEGEREMENT REHAUSSEE
COMPTE DU GAIN D'ORGANISATION GLOBALE OBSERVE ET DE LA PRISE EN
COMPTE DES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.


PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. VERNON
EMPRUNTE UNE DIRECTION A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST DU
SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU
SUD, QUI A TENDANCE A GLISSER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN COURS DE
SEMAINE. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS, AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES SUBTROPICALES EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, TOUT EN EPARGNANT LES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

IL Y A UN BON DEGRE DE CONFIANCE SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE MEME SI ON
NOTE TOUJOURS UNE DISPERSION IMPORTANTE EST-OUEST ET DES DIVERGENCES
EN TERMES DE TIMING DES MODELES NUMERIQUES (GFS RESTANT TOUJOURS PLUS
RAPIDE QUE LE MODA LE EUROPEEN). LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU CMRS EST
PROCHE DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VERNON A DEBUTE UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION
GRACE A DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SATISFAISANTES (DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE MARQUEE EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, BON POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, ET BON POTENTIEL HUMIDITE EN ALTITUDE) CONTREBALANCEES
TOUTEFOIS PAR LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE MODA RA E A
FORTE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST. AU COURS DE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, VERNON POURRAIT A NOUVEAU RETROUVER TRES TEMPORAIREMENT LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVANT QU'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENNE REDHIBITOIRE POUR LA POURSUITE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION, A PARTIR DE JEUDI. DE PLUS, DES VENDREDI, LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT DIMINUER DRASTIQUEMENT AVEC L'ARRIVEE DE
VERNON SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES; LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
CONDUIRONT AINSI VERNON A AMORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE.

PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 87.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 400 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 100

24H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 480 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 140

36H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 530 SW: 325 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 490 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85

60H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 465 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85

72H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 425 SW: 280 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 27.9 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SW: 260 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 175

120H: 2022/03/05 12 UTC: 31.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, UNDER THE STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR, THE VERNON CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED SHEARED, ALTHOUGH THE
STRUCTURE HAS TEMPORARILY ADOPTED A CURVED BAND PATTERN SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STRUGGLING TO FULLY ENTER THE CDO AND
REMAINS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF IT. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS CDO HAS SLIGHTLY FLUCTUATED IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE REMAINED COLD WITH AN IMPORTANT
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY WHICH INDICATES AN ORGANIZATION THAT IS TRYING TO
SET UP. THE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE WAS NOT POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF MICROWAVE DATA. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY INCREASED GIVEN THE OBSERVED GAIN IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION
AND THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.


LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY. VERNON IS HEADING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH TENDS TO
SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THIS TRACK WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TAKING VERNON INTO THE SUBTROPICS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE AVOIDING THE INHABITED AREAS OF THE BASIN.

THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK, EVEN IF THERE IS STILL A
SIGNIFICANT EAST-WEST DISPERSION AND DISCREPANCIES IN TERMS OF ALONG
TRACK (GFS IS STILL FASTER THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL). THE OFFICIAL
CMRS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VERNON HAS STARTED AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE
THANKS TO CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ( STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AT THE MARGIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL) OFFSET BY THE
PERSISTENCE OF A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
CONSTRAINT. DURING ITS SOUTH-WESTERLY MOVEMENT, VERNON COULD AGAIN
VERY TEMPORARILY REACH THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, BEFORE A NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS ALOFT BECOMES INHIBITING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
INTENSIFICATION, FROM THURSDAY. MOREOVER, FROM FRIDAY, THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE DRASTICALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF VERNON ON
COLDER WATERS; THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO
START PROGRESSIVELY AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 281201
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 87.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 270 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/01 AT 00 UTC:
15.6 S / 86.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/01 AT 12 UTC:
17.0 S / 85.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280628
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.8 S / 87.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 295 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 185 NO: 130

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2022 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 350 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 85

24H: 01/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 435 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 100

36H: 01/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 500 SO: 315 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

48H: 02/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 480 SO: 285 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 85

60H: 02/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 465 SO: 230 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

72H: 03/03/2022 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 455 SO: 270 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/03/2022 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 455 SO: 230 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 140

120H: 05/03/2022 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

DEPUIS LE DERNIER RESEAU DE PREVISION, L'INTERACTION ENTRE LA TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODA REE VERNON ET LE SYSTEME 8 S'EST ACHEVEE, COMME LE
MONTRENT LES DERNIA RES ANIMATIONS SATELLITAIRES. LA CONVECTION S'EST
PROGRESSIVEMENT ORGANISEE AU COURS DE CES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC
UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES SITUE NON LOIN DE LA BORDURE SUD-EST DE
L'ACTIVITE PRINCIPALE. CE DECALAGE EST DU A LA PRESENCE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT MODERE A FORT DE SECTEUR EST A NORD-EST, DE L'ORDRE DE
20/25 KT SELON LES DONNEES DU CIMSS. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT
EGALEMENT REFROIDIS ET ON REMARQUE SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES
VISIBLES UNE COURBURE DES NUAGES DE BASSES COUCHES QUI S'EST
NETTEMENT ACCENTUA E SUR LA DERNIERE HEURE, ASSOCIEE A UNE ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE SECONDAIRE INTENSE, SE RELIANT PROGRESSIVEMENT AU CDO.
L'ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE, AINSI QUE LA REACTUALISATION DES
EXTENSIONS DE VENT ONT PU ETRE REALISEES GRACE A LA PASSE TOTALE DE
L'ASCAT-B DE 0330Z, QUI PRESENTE DU 40 KT AU SEIN DU QUADRANT
NORD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. CETTE ESTIMATION EST EGALEMENT
CORROBOREE PAR LA DERNIERE DONNEE SMAP DE 0009Z QUI PRESENTE
EGALEMENT DU 42KT. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDE RECENTES, LA
STRUCTURE INTERNE DE VERNON, N'A PU ETRE ESTIMEE, MAIS AU VU DES
AMELIORATIONS VISIBLES SUR L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE, IL EST FORT A PARIER
QUE LE SYSTEME A BEL ET BIEN ENTAME SA PHASE DE CONSOLIDATION /
D'INTENSIFICATION.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, L'EFFET FUJIWARA AYANT PRIS FIN, VERNON
DEVRAIT PRENDRE DESORMAIS UNE DIRECTION PLUS FRANCHE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE AU SEIN DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU SUD, QUI A TENDANCE A GLISSER
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN COURS DE SEMAINE. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE
MAINTIENDRA AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER LES
LATITUDES SUBTROPICALES EN FIN DE SEMAINE, TOUT EN EPARGNANT LES
TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

IL Y A UN BON DEGRE DE CONFIANCE SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE MEME SI ON
NOTE TOUJOURS UNE DISPERSION IMPORTANTE EST-OUEST ET DES DIVERGENCES
EN TERMES DE TIMING DES MODELES NUMERIQUES (GFS RESTANT TOUJOURS PLUS
RAPIDE). LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU CMRS EST PROCHE DU CONSENSUS
GLOBAL DES MODELES.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, APRES DES DEBUTS CHAOTIQUES LIE A L'EFFET
FUJIWARA, VERNON VA DEBUTER UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION, AVEC DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES QUI SERONT UN PEU PLUS FAVORABLES MALGRE
LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'EST. AU COURS DE SON TRANSIT VERS
LE SUD-OUEST, VERNON POURRAIT A NOUVEAU RETROUVER TRES TEMPORAIREMENT
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVANT QU'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENNE REDHIBITOIRE POUR UNE POURSUITE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE JEUDI. DEPLUS, DES VENDREDI, LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT ETRE INSUFFISANT AVEC DES EAUX
INSUFFISAMMENT CHAUDES; LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES CONDUIRONT
AINSI VERNON A AMORCER UNE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 87.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/28 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 350 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/01 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 435 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 100

36H: 2022/03/01 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 500 SW: 315 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/02 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 480 SW: 285 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85

60H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 465 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 455 SW: 270 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 455 SW: 230 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 140

120H: 2022/03/05 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

SINCE THE LAST FORECAST, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM VERNON AND THE SYSTEM 8 HAS BEEN COMPLETED, AS SHOWN
IN THE LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. THE CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSIVELY
ORGANIZED ITSELF DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER
LOCATED NOT FAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY. THIS
SHIFT IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR, OF THE ORDER OF 20/25 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS
DATA. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO COOLED DOWN AND WE CAN SEE ON THE LAST
VISIBLE IMAGES A CURVATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS CLEARLY
INCREASED DURING THE LAST HOUR, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE SECONDARY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, PROGRESSIVELY LINKING TO THE CDO. THE ESTIMATION
OF THE INTENSITY, AS WELL AS THE UPDATE OF THE WIND EXTENSIONS COULD
BE DONE THANKS TO THE TOTAL PASS OF THE 0330Z ASCAT-B, WHICH DEPICTS
40 KT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS ESTIMATE
IS ALSO CORROBORATED BY THE LATEST 0009Z SMAP DATA WHICH ALSO SHOWS
42KT. IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA, THE VERNON INTERNAL
STRUCTURE COULD NOT BE ESTIMATED, BUT CONSIDERING THE IMPROVEMENTS
VISIBLE ON THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
INDEED STARTED ITS CONSOLIDATION / INTENSIFICATION PHASE.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE FUJIWARA EFFECT HAVING ENDED, VERNON
SHOULD NOW TAKE A CLEARER DIRECTION SOUTH-WESTWARDS, GUIDED BY THE
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS ALOFT WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH
TENDS TO SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARDS DURING THE WEEK. THIS TRACK
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TAKING VERNON INTO THE
SUBTROPICS LATITUDES BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE SPARING THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK, EVEN IF THERE IS STILL A
SIGNIFICANT EAST-WEST DISPERSION AND DISCREPANCIES IN TERMS OF TIMING
OF NUMERICAL MODELS (GFS STILL BEING FASTER). THE OFFICIAL CMRS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AFTER CHAOTIC BEGINNINGS DUE TO THE FUJIWARA
EFFECT, VERNON WILL START AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE, WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE A BIT MORE CONDUCIVE DESPITE
THE PERSISTENCE OF AN EASTERLY CONSTRAINT. DURING ITS SOUTH-WESTWARDS
SHIFT, VERNON COULD AGAIN VERY TEMPORARILY REGAIN THE STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BEFORE A NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
BECOMES CRITICAL FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE INTENSIFICATION FROM
THURSDAY. MOREOVER, FROM FRIDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT WITH INSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS; THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL THUS LEAD VERNON TO START AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 280606
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 87.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/28 AT 18 UTC:
15.1 S / 86.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.7 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280033
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 87.6 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2022 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

24H: 01/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SO: 305 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 75

36H: 01/03/2022 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 445 SO: 390 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

48H: 02/03/2022 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 535 SO: 400 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 02/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 445 SO: 360 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 03/03/2022 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SO: 270 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 250 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/03/2022 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SO: 285 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 285 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 05/03/2022 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LES CIRCULATIONS INTERNES DE
VERNON ET DU SYSTEME 8 ONT COMMENCE A FUSIONNER COMME LE MONTRE LA
PASSE SSMIS DE 2222Z. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A REPRIS PROCHE DU CENTRE
MAIS PEINE ENCORE A MONTRER DES SIGNES DE COURBURES. L'INTENSITE EST
ABAISSEE A 35KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET
OBJECTIVES.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, AVEC LA PROBABLE FIN DE L'EFFET FUJIWARA
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, VERNON DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ACCELERER
VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST GUIDE PAR LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE
PERSISTANTE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU SUD. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA LES JOURS SUIVANTS AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER
LES LATITUDES SUBTROPICALES TOUT EN RESTANT BIEN A L'ECART DES TERRES
HABITEES DU BASSIN. IL Y A UN BON DEGRE DE CONFIANCE SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE MEME SI ON NOTE UNE DISPERSION EST-OUEST ET DES
DIVERGENCES EN TERME DE TIMING (GFS PLUS RAPIDE). LA PREVISION
OFFICIELLE EST PROCHE DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LA AUSSI AVEC LA FIN DE L'EFFET FUJIWARA,
VERNON DEVRAIT RECOMMENCER A S'INTENSIFIER. EN EFFET LES CONDITIONS
REDEVIENNENT PROGRESSIVEMENT PLUS FAVORABLES (MOINS DE CISAILLEMENT)
ET UN NOUVEAU PIC D'INTENSITE EST ATTENDU VRAISEMBLABLEMENT MARDI OU
MERCREDI AVANT QU'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE A DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENNENT LIMITANT POUR
UNE POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LORSQUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA AU SUD DU TROPIQUES SUR DES EAUX
INSUFFISAMMENT CHAUDES, LES CONDITIONS DEVIENDRONT FAVORABLES POUR
AMORCER LA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 87.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/28 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 75

36H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 445 SW: 390 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

48H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 535 SW: 400 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 445 SW: 360 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 285 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE INNER CIRCULATIONS OF VERNON AND
SYSTEM HAVE STARTED TO MERGE AS SHOWN BY 2222Z SSMIS PASS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY RESUMED CLOSE TO THE CENTER BUT THERE IS STILL NOT MANY
SIGNS OF CURVATURE. INTENSITY IS DOWNGRADED TO 35KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, WITH THE LIKELTY END OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT
SHORTLY, VERNON SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRIVEN BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN MID-TROPOSPHERE
WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS TRACK WILL MAINTAIN
DURING THE FOLLOWING DAYS LEADING VERNON TO GAIN THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WHILE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE
BASIN. THERE IS A GOOD DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST EVEN IF
WE NOTE AN EAST-WEST SPREAD, ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DIVERGENCES IN
TERMS OF TIMING (GFS IS FASTER). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A
GLOBAL CONSENSUS.

FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST TOO, THE END OF THE FUJIWARA SHOULD MEAN
THAT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD START OVER. INDEED GRADUALLY
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE (LESS
SHEAR) AND A NEW PEAK IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
THEN THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS IN
MID-TROPOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO PREVENT FROM ANY FURTHER DEEPENING
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. LATER THIS WEEK, WHEN THE SYSTEM EVOLVES SOUTH OF
THE TROPICS OVER INSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 280022
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 87.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/28 AT 12 UTC:
14.4 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/01 AT 00 UTC:
15.7 S / 86.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271909
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1 S / 89.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2022 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 87.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 100

24H: 28/02/2022 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 100

36H: 01/03/2022 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 01/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 02/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SO: 250 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 02/03/2022 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SO: 230 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2022 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SO: 230 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 85

120H: 04/03/2022 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE DE LA CIRCULATION DE
VERNON EST RESTEE EN GRANDE PARTIE EXPOSEE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE NE SE RENFORCANT A NOUVEAU QUE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES.
LE SYSTME PATIT TOUJOURS DE L'EFFET CONJUGUE DU CISAILLEMENT D'EST A
NORD-EST (20KT D'APRES LE CIMSS) ET DE L'INTERACTION (FUJIWARA) AVEC
LE SYSTEME 8. LES PASSES ASCAT DE CE SOIR MONTRENT CEPENDANT QUE LES
VENTS DEPASSENT LES 35KT ENCORE SUR UNE LARGE PORTION DE LA
CIRCULATION. L'INTENSITE EST DONC AJUSTEE A 40KT.

AU VU DES DERNIERES OBSERVATIONS, IL SEMBLE QUE LE SYSTEME 8 SOIT EN
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF AVANT SA DISPARITION AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION DE VERNON. CE SCENARIO EST DONC TOUJOURS LARGEMENT
PRIVILEGIE.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION RESTE SOUMISE A L'EFFET
FUJIWHARA AVEC LE SYSTEME 08 AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H. PAR LA
SUITE, VERNON EST GUIDE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST PAR LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST DU
SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE PERSISTANTE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA LES JOURS
SUIVANTS AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES SUBTROPICALES TOUT EN
RESTANT BIEN A L'ECART DES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN. IL Y A UN BON
DEGRE DE CONFIANCE SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE MEME SI ON NOTE UNE
DISPERSION EST-OUEST ET DES DIVERGENCES EN TERME DE TIMING (GFS PLUS
RAPIDE). LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE EST PROCHE DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES
MODELES.

A COURTE ECHEANCE, L'INTERACTION AVEC LE SYSTEME 8, LE CISAILLEMENT
ET LE FAIBLE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DU AU REFROISSEMENT SOUS JACENT
DEVRAIENT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DE VERNON. DEMAIN LES CONDITIONS
REDEVIENNENT PROGRESSIVEMENT PLUS FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION ET
UN NOUVEAU PIC D'INTENSITE EST ATTENDU VRAISEMBLABLEMENT MARDI OU
MERCREDI AVANT QU'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE A DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENNENT LIMITANTS POUR
UNE POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LORSQUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA AU SUD DU TROPIQUES SUR DES EAUX
INSUFFISAMMENT CHAUDES, LES CONDITIONS DEVIENDRONT FAVORABLES POUR
AMORCER LA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271909
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 89.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/28 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 87.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 100

24H: 2022/02/28 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100

36H: 2022/03/01 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/03/01 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/02 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 250 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 230 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 230 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85

120H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, VERNON LOW LEVELCIRCULATION REMAINED
LARGELY EXPOSED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ONLY ON
THE LATEST IMAGES. THE SYSTEM IS STILL SUFFERING FROM THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR (20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS) AND
THE INTERACTION (FUJIWARA) WITH SYSTEM 8. THIS EVENING ASCAT PASSES
SHOW HOWEVER THAT THE WINDS ARE STILL ABOVE 35KT ON A LARGE PART OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED AT 40KT.

GIVEN THE LAST OBSERVATIONS, IT SEEMS THAT THE SYSTEM 8 IS IN ITS
FINAL WEAKENING PHASE BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY VERNON CIRCULATION.
THIS SCENARIO IS CONSEQUENTLY LARGELY FAVOURED.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FORECAST REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE FUJIWHARA
EFFECT WITH THE 08 SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
VERNON IS GUIDED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS IN MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS TRACK WILL MAINTAIN DURING THE FOLLOWING DAYS LEADING
VERNON TO GAIN THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM
THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN. THERE IS A GOOD DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST EVEN IF WE NOTE AN EAST-WEST SPREAD,
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DIVERGENCES IN TERMS OF TIMING (GFS IS FASTER).
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A GLOBAL CONSENSUS.

AT SHORT RAGE, THE INTERACTION WITH SYSTEM 8, SHEAR AND THE WEAK
OCEANIC POTENTIAL BECAUSE OF THE SELF INDUCED COOLING OF UNDERNEATH
WATERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT VERNON INTENSITY. BUT GRADUALLY FROM
TOMORROW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION AND A NEW PEAK IN THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. THEN THE NORTH-WESTERLY ERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR IN MID-TROPOSPHERE ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT FROM
A CONTINUATION OF THE DEEPENING. LATER THIS WEEK, WHEN THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES SOUTH OF THE TROPICS OVER INSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE TO BEGIN THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271829
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 89.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/28 AT 06 UTC:
14.4 S / 87.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/28 AT 18 UTC:
15.5 S / 86.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271236
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/7/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.5 S / 88.9 E
(DOUZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2022 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 0 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 100

24H: 28/02/2022 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 86.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 01/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 155 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 85 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 01/03/2022 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 380 SO: 230 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 02/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 435 SO: 240 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 140 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 02/03/2022 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SO: 240 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2022 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SO: 195 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 95

120H: 04/03/2022 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 150

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

LA CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE DE VERNON S'EST ENCORE ACCENTUEE CET
APRES-MIDI AVEC UN CENTRE DEVENU PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSE. L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDES GPM ET AMSR2 CONFIRME LA DESTRUCTURATION SIGNIFICATIVE DU
COEUR INTERNE DU SYSTEME A LA FOIS EN 85 ET EN 37 GHZ (CIRCULATION
ENCORE BIEN SIGNEE MAIS EN PERTE DE DEFINITION). L'INTENSITE EST
ABAISSEE A 45 KT EN LIEN AVEC L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK ET UN
CRAN EN-DESSOUS DES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES (PLUTOT VERS 55 KT A 08-10Z).
ON NOTE QUE LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME EST MAL POSITIONNE SUR LES ANALYSES
ADT DU CIMSS.

VERNON EST TOUJOURS EN PLEINE INTERACTION BINAIRE AVEC LE SYSTEME 08
(EFFET FUJIWHARA). BIEN QUE CELUI-CI EST MOINS INTENSE, VERNON SUBIT
TRES SENSIBLEMENT LES CONSEQUENCES NEGATIVES DE LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET DE LA BAISSE DE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES CAUSES
PAR LA PROXIMITE DE LA DEPRESSION TROPICALE ... A TEL POINT QU'IL EST
PERMIS DE DOUTER DU SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE JUSQU'A MAINTENANT
D'ABSORPTION DE LA CIRCULATION DE LA DT 08 AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION
DE VERNON. SI D'ICI 24 A 30H, IL RESTERA UN POLE UNIQUE DE VORTCITE,
ON PEUT NOURRIR QUELQUES DOUTES SUR LE FAIT QUE CE SOIT CELUI DE
VERNON QUI PRENNE EFFECTIVEMENT LE DESSUS ...

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION RESTE SOUMISE A L'EFFET
FUJIWHARA AVEC LE SYSTEME 08 AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12 A 18H. PAR LA
SUITE, VERNON EST GUIDE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST PAR LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCENT A L'EST DU
SYSTEME ET UNE FAIBLESSE PERSISTANTE AU SEIN DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA LES JOURS
SUIVANTS AMENANT VERNON A GAGNER LES LATITUDES SUD TOUT EN RESTANT
BIEN A L'ECART DES TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN. IL Y A UN BON DEGRE DE
CONFIANCE SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE MEME SI ON NOTE UNE DISPERSION
EST-OUEST (GFS UN PEU PLUS A L'OUEST QUE IFS) DANS LE PANACHE DES
GUIDANCES, ASSOCIES A DE LEGERES DIVERGENCES EN TERME DE TIMING (GFS
TEND A ETRE PLUS RAPIDE). LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE EST PROCHE DU
CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE DELICATE DU FAIT DE L'INTERACTION
ENTRE LES DEUX SYSTEMES. LA HAUSSE DE CISAILLEMENT, LA BAISSE DE
CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ATTENUE
PEUVENT ENCORE AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H.
AU-DELA LES CONDITIONS REDEVIENNENT UN PEU PLUS FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION ET UN NOUVEAU PIC D'INTENSITE EST ATTENDU
VRAISEMBLABLEMENT MARDI AVANT QU'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD ASSOCIE A
DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENNENT LIMITANTS
POUR UNE POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. EN FIN
DE SEMAINE, LORSQUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA AU SUD DU TROPIQUES SUR DES
EAUX INSUFFISAMMENT CHAUDES, LES CONDITIONS DEVIENDRONT FAVORABLES
POUR AMORCER LA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/7/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 88.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/28 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 100

24H: 2022/02/28 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 86.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 380 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 435 SW: 240 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SW: 240 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 95

120H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

THE SHEARED CONFIGURATION OF VERNON HAS BEEN FURTHER ACCENTUATED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER. GPM AND AMSR2 MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE SIGNIFICANT DESTRUCTION OF THE INNER CORE OF THE
SYSTEM AT BOTH 85 AND 37 GHZ (CIRCULATION STILL WELL SIGNED BUT
LOSING DEFINITION). THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT IN CONNECTION
WITH THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF DVORAK AND A NOTCH BELOW THE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (RATHER TOWARDS 55 KT AT 08-10Z). WE NOTE THAT THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS POORLY POSITIONED ON THE CIMSS ADT ANALYSES.

VERNON IS STILL IN FULL BINARY INTERACTION WITH SYSTEM 08 (FUJIWHARA
EFFECT). ALTHOUGH THIS ONE IS LESS INTENSE, VERNON IS VERY
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES OF THE INCREASE
OF THE SHEAR AND THE DECREASE OF THE LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SO MUCH SO THAT IT IS
POSSIBLE TO DOUBT THE SCENARIO FAVORED UNTIL NOW OF ABSORPTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF DT 08 WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF VERNON. IF WITHIN 24
TO 30 HOURS, THERE WILL BE A UNIQUE VORTCITE POLE, WE CAN HAVE SOME
DOUBTS ON THE FACT THAT IT IS THE ONE OF VERNON WHICH WILL TAKE THE
UPPER HAND ...

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FORECAST REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE FUJIWHARA
EFFECT WITH THE 08 SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
VERNON IS GUIDED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WHICH ARE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
PERSISTENT WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
TRACK WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THE FOLLOWING DAYS LEADING VERNON TO
GAIN THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN. THERE IS A GOOD DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS TRACK EVEN IF WE NOTE AN EAST-WEST DISPERSION (GFS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAN IFS) IN THE GUIDANCE PLUME, ASSOCIATED WITH SLIGHT
DIVERGENCES IN TERMS OF TIMING (GFS TENDS TO BE FASTER). THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DELICATE BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE INCREASE IN SHEAR, THE DECREASE IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AN ATTENUATED OCEANIC POTENTIAL MAY STILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND A NEW PEAK OF
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE BECOME LIMITING FOR
A CONTINUATION OF THE INTENSIFICATION TREND FROM WEDNESDAY. AT THE
END OF THE WEEK, WHEN THE SYSTEM EVOLVES SOUTH OF THE TROPICS OVER
INSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE TO BEGIN
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271218
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 88.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/28 AT 00 UTC:
13.7 S / 88.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/28 AT 12 UTC:
14.4 S / 86.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270645
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/7/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.2 S / 87.7 E
(DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 2.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 50 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2022 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 35

24H: 28/02/2022 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 110

36H: 28/02/2022 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 01/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 380 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 01/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 465 SO: 315 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

72H: 02/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 435 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2022 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 405 SO: 260 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 95

120H: 04/03/2022 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 380 SO: 250 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE L'EFFET FUJIWARA, VERNON CONTINUE DE SOUFRIR DE
LA PROXIMITE DE LA DEPRESSION TROPICALE 08 SITUEE A MOIN DE 350 KM AU
SUD-EST. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES ENTRE 00Z ET 03Z MONTRE QUE LA
STRUCTURE INTERNE DE CE PETIT SYSTEME A ETE BIEN ERODEE (PERTE DE
L'OEIL EN 85 GHZ). L'INTENSITE DE 55 KT EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS
DES METHODES OBJECTIVES (ADT, AIDT ET SATCON) AINSI QU'UNE PASS SMOS
A 54 KT A 0021Z CE MATIN.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION RESTE SOUMISE A L'EFFET
FUJIWHARA AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. PAR LA SUITE, VERNON EST GUIDE
VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST PAR LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SITUE A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET LE TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU
SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA LES JOURS SUIVANTS AMENANT
VERNON A GAGNE LES LATITUDES SUD TOUT EN RESTANT BIEN A L'ECART DES
TERRES HABITEES DU BASSIN.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE DELICATE DU FAIT DE L'INTERACTION
ENTRE LES DEUX SYSTEMES. CELA VA INDUIRE UNE GENE MUTUELLE MAIS QUI
DEVRAIT ETRE MOINS MARQUEE POUR VERNON. LA HAUSSE DE CISAILLEMENT,
LA BAISSE DE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
ATTENUE PEUVENT ENCORE AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24H. AU-DELA LES CONDITIONS REDEVIENNENT UN PEU PLUS FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION ET UN NOUVEAU PIC D'INTENSITE EST ATTENDU EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE VRAISEMBABLEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.
LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO.

PAS D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS DE CE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/7/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 87.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/27 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/28 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 110

36H: 2022/02/28 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/01 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 380 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/03/01 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 465 SW: 315 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/02 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 435 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 405 SW: 260 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 95

120H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 380 SW: 250 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT, VERNON CONTINUES TO
SUFFER FROM THE PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08 LOCATED LESS THAN
350 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST. MICROWAVE IMAGERY BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z SHOWS
THAT THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM HAS BEEN WELL ERODED
(LOSS OF THE EYE IN 85 GHZ). THE 55 KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE METHODS (ADT, AIDT AND SATCON) AND A SMOS PASS
AT 54 KT AT 0021Z THIS MORNING.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE FORECAST REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE FUJIWHARA
EFFECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, VERNON IS GUIDED TOWARDS
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE MID LEVELS HIGHS LOCATED AT THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND PERSISTANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPIACL RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH. THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LEADING
VERNON TO GAIN THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM
THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN.

THE INTENSITY PREDICTION REMAINS DELICATE BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MUTUAL GENE BUT WHICH
SHOULD BE LESS MARKED FOR VERNON. THE INCREASE OF SHEAR, THE
DECREASE OF LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE AND AN ATTENUATED OCEANIC
POTENTIAL CAN STILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24H. BEYOND
THAT, CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION AND A NEW PEAK OF INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, PROBABLY AT THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270104
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/7/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 87.7 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2022 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 85 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 65 NO: 35

24H: 28/02/2022 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

36H: 28/02/2022 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 01/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 01/03/2022 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 415 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 02/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 325 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 175 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2022 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SO: 270 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 155 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 85

120H: 04/03/2022 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SO: 240 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 175

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5+

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE L'EFFET FUJIWARA, VERNON CONTINUE DE SOUFRIR DE
LA PROXIMITE DU SECOND SYSTEME SOUS L'EFFET ENTRE AUTRES DU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT. LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR,
PRESENTANT MAINTENANT UNE CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE
AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME EST DECLASSE EN CYCLONE
TROPICAL.
LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD S'ORIENTE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE
NORD-EST. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST REVUE A LA BAISSE
LAISSANT UNE ESTIMATION DE VENT DE L'ORDRE DE 70KT ET UNE FORTE
DISSYMETRIE DANS LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION EST DELICATE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H. L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD
FAIBLIT ET LAISSE UNE PLACE PREDOMINATE A UN EFFET FUJIWARA AVEC LE
SYSTEME LOCALISE MAINTENANT A L'EST DE VERNON. DU FAIT DE LA PRESENCE
DE CE SYSTEME, LA TRAJECTOIRE VA PRESENTER UNE BOUCLE VERS L'EST,
PUIS LE SUD, LE REPLACANT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST DANS LES 24H, PUIS OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA
PERSISTANCE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-EST DE
VERNON. PAR LA SUITE, VERNON EST GUIDE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST PAR LES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS D'ALTITUDE FORCISSANT SITUE A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET
LE TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA
AMENANT VERNON SUR LES 25S A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST TOUT AUSSI DIFFICILE DU FAIT DE
L'INTERACTION ENTRE LES DEUX SYSTEMES. CELA VA INDUIRE UNE GENE
MUTUELLE MAIS QUI SERA MOINS MARQUE POUR VERNON. LES DIFFERENTES
GUIDANCES SONT PLUTOT EN ACCORD SUR CE POINT. LE SYSTEME A L'EST SUR
LE BASSIN AUSTRALIEN VA SE RETROUVER DANS UNE ZONE DE CISAILLEMENT
S'ACCENTUANT ET UN MANQUE DE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES DANS LA
PARTIE OUEST. PAR OPPOSSION, LE CISAILLEMENT SUR VERNON EST AUSSI
PRESENT MAIS MOINS GENANT ALORS QUE L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES
SUR LA PARTIE EST EST QUASIMENT INEXISTANTE LIMITANT GRANDEMENT LE
MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE DE VERNON. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE
DE VERNON VA BAISSER AU COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES LAISSANT UN
CYCLONE TROPICAL (VOIRE MOINS) BIEN AFFAIBLI A LA FIN DE SON
INTERACTION ET DE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN BOUCLE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
EST POUR LE MOMENT PRESENT MAIS VA BIEN BAISSER LORS DE LA BOUCLE
CONTRIBUANT ENCORE A ATTENUER L'INTENSITE DE VERNON. A NOTER QUE LE
SECOND SYSTEME DEVRAIT REVENIR SUR NOTRE BASSIN AVEC DES VENTS DANS
LA PARTIE SUD POUVANT APPROCHER LES 35KT PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT ET DE
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. PAR LA SUITE, BIEN QUE
L'AIR SEC RESTE A BONNE DISTANCE DANS LA PARTIE NORD, LE CISAILLEMENT
DE VENT EST PLUS PRESENT SUR LA PARTIE SUD ET NE PERMET QU'UNE
REINTENSIFACATION MODEREE JUSQU'A MARDI. CONTINUANT SA DESCENTE VERS
LES LATITUDE SUD, LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ET L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC
PAR LE NORD VONT ENTAMER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME POUR LE
CONDUIRE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, CE SYSTEME RESTE LOIN DES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270104
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 87.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/27 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 65 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/28 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2022/02/28 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 415 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/02 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/03 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SW: 270 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85

120H: 2022/03/04 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SW: 240 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5+

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT, VERNON CONTINUES TO
SUFFER FROM THE PROXIMITY OF THE SECOND SYSTEM UNDER THE EFFECT OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AMONG OTHERS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, NOW
PRESENTING A CONFIGURATION IN CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MASS DURING THE
LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS DECLARED IN TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY IS PROGRESSIVELY ORIENTED TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS REVISED
DOWNWARDS LEAVING A WIND ESTIMATE OF AROUND 70KT AND A STRONG
DISSYMMETRY IN THE WIND EXTENSIONS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FORECAST IS DELICATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH IS
WEAKENING AND LEAVING A PREDOMINANT PLACE TO A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
THE SYSTEM LOCATED MORE NORTHEAST OF VERNON. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM, THE TRACK WILL PRESENT A LOOP TOWARDS THE EAST, THEN
SOUTH, PUTTING IT BACK ON A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK WITHIN 24
HOURS,THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF VERNON. THEREAFTER, VERNON IS GUIDED TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH ALTITUDE GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS TRACK WILL
CONTINUE BRINGING VERNON ON THE 25S ON THURSDAY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MUTUAL GENE BUT IT WILL
BE LESS MARKED FOR VERNON. THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES ARE RATHER IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
AUSTRALIAN BASIN WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONE OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A
LACK OF CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS IN THE WESTERN PART. IN CONTRAST,
THE SHEAR OVER VERNON IS ALSO PRESENT BUT LESS SEVERE WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL SUPPLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT LIMITING
GREATLY THE MAINTENANCE OF THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF VERNON WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS LEAVING A TROPICAL CYCLONE (OR EVEN LESS) WELL WEAKENED AT THE
END OF ITS INTERACTION AND ITS LOOPED TRACK. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS
PRESENT FOR THE MOMENT BUT WILL DECREASE WELL DURING THE LOOP
CONTRIBUTING AGAIN TO ATTENUATE THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. NOTE THAT
THE SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN TO OUR BASIN WITH WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN PART THAT CAN APPROACH 35KT BY GRADIENT EFFECT AND RAPID
MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT HOURS. THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR REMAINS
AT A GOOD DISTANCE IN THE NORTHERN PART, THE WIND SHEAR IS MORE
PRESENT ON THE SOUTHERN PART AND ALLOWS ONLY A MODERATE
REINTENSIFICATION UNTIL TUESDAY. CONTINUING ITS DESCENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES, THE WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE NORTH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO LEAD IT TO THE
STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 270015
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 87.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 12 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/27 AT 12 UTC:
13.2 S / 88.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

24H, VALID 2022/02/28 AT 00 UTC:
13.5 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 261500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 88.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 88.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.7S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.7S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.2S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.3S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.0S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.1S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.8S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 87.7E.
26FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1003 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270300Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE
UNDER REMARKS.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/7/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 35 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.9 S / 88.0 E
(DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2022 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SO: 195 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 85 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 27/02/2022 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 315 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 28/02/2022 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 28/02/2022 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 01/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 415 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 01/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SO: 345 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 175 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2022 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SO: 285 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 03/03/2022 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=5.0+

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE L'EFFET FUJIWARA, VERNON CONTINUE DE SOUFRIR DE
LA PROXIMITE DU SECOND SYSTEME SOUS L'EFFET ENTRE AUTRES DU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT. LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR,
PRESENTANT MAINTENANT UNE CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE
AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME EST DECLASSE EN CYCLONE
TROPICAL.
LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD S'ORIENTE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE
NORD-EST. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST REVUE A LA BAISSE
LAISSANT UNE ESTIMATION DE VENT DE L'ORDRE DE 80KT ET UNE FORTE
DISSYMETRIE DANS LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION EST DELICATE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 48H. L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD
FAIBLIT ET LAISSE UNE PLACE PREDOMINATE A UN EFFET FUJIWARA AVEC LE
SYSTEME LOCALISE MAINTENANT A L'EST DE VERNON. DU FAIT DE LA PRESENCE
DE CE SYSTEME, LA TRAJECTOIRE VA PRESENTER UNE BOUCLE VERS LE NORD,
PUIS L'EST, LE REPLACANT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST DANS LES 48H. LA SORTIE DE CETTE BOUCLE SEMBLE UN PEU
PLUS TARDIVE QUE PREVUE PRECEDEMMENT DU FAIT DE LA RESISTANCE UN PEU
PLUS MARQUEE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DE
VERNON. PAR LA SUITE, VERNON EST GUIDE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST PAR LES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS D'ALTITUDE FORCISSANT SITUE A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET
LE TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA
AMENANT VERNON VERS LES 25S A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST TOUT AUSSI DIFFICILE DU FAIT DE
L'INTERACTION ENTRE LES DEUX SYSTEMES. CELA VA INDUIRE UNE GENE
MUTUELLE MAIS QUI SERA MOINS MARQUE POUR VERNON. LES DIFFERENTES
GUIDANCES SONT PLUTOT EN ACCORD SUR CE POINT. LE SYSTEME A L'EST SUR
LE BASSIN AUSTRALIEN VA SE RETROUVER DANS UNE ZONE DE CISAILLEMENT
S'ACCENTUANT ET UN MANQUE DE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES DANS LA
PARTIE OUEST. PAR OPPOSSION, LE CISAILLEMENT SUR VERNON EST AUSSI
PRESENT MAIS MOINS GENANT ALORS QUE L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES
SUR LA PARTIE EST EST QUASIMENT INEXISTANTE LIMITANT GRANDEMENT LE
MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE DE VERNON. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE
DE VERNON VA BAISSER AU COURS DES 24/36 PROCHAINES HEURES LAISSANT UN
CYCLONE TROPICAL (VOIRE MOINS) BIEN AFFAIBLI A LA FIN DE SON
INTERACTION ET DE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN BOUCLE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
EST POUR LE MOMENT PRESENT MAIS VA BIEN BAISSER LORS DE LA BOUCLE
CONTRIBUANT ENCORE A ATTENUER L'INTENSITE DE VERNON. A NOTER QUE LE
SECOND SYSTEME DEVRAIT REVENIR SUR NOTRE BASSIN AVEC DES VENTS DANS
LA PARTIE SUD POUVANT APPROCHER LES 35KT PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT ET DE
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DANS LES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES. PAR LA SUITE, BIEN
QUE L'AIR SEC RESTE A BONNE DISTANCE DANS LA PARTIE NORD, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT EST PLUS PRESENT SUR LA PARTIE SUD ET NE PERMET
QU'UNE REINTENSIFACATION MODEREE JUSQU'A MARDI. CONTINUANT SA
DESCENTE VERS LES LATITUDE SUD, LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ET
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC PAR LE NORD VONT ENTAMER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME POUR LE CONDUIRE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE A
ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, CE SYSTEME RESTE LOIN DES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/7/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 88.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/27 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 85 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/27 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2022/02/28 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/02/28 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/03/01 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 415 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/01 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SW: 345 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/02 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SW: 285 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/03 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=5.0+

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT, VERNON CONTINUES TO
SUFFER FROM THE PROXIMITY OF THE SECOND SYSTEM UNDER THE EFFECT OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AMONG OTHERS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, NOW
PRESENTING A CONFIGURATION IN CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MASS DURING THE
LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS DECLARED IN TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY IS PROGRESSIVELY ORIENTED TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS REVISED
DOWNWARDS LEAVING A WIND ESTIMATE OF AROUND 80KT AND A STRONG
DISSYMMETRY IN THE WIND EXTENSIONS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FORECAST IS DELICATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH IS
WEAKENING AND LEAVING A PREDOMINANT PLACE TO A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
THE SYSTEM LOCATED MORE NORTHEAST OF VERNON. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM, THE TRACK WILL PRESENT A LOOP TOWARDS THE NORTH, THE
EAST, PUTTING IT BACK ON A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK WITHIN 48
HOURS. THE EXIT OF THIS LOOP SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BECAUSE OF THE MORE MARKED RESISTANCE OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH-WEST OF VERNON. THEREAFTER, VERNON IS
GUIDED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH ALTITUDE GEOPOTENTIALS
LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE BRINGING VERNON TOWARDS THE 25S ON THURSDAY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MUTUAL GENE BUT IT WILL
BE LESS MARKED FOR VERNON. THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES ARE RATHER IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
AUSTRALIAN BASIN WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONE OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A
LACK OF CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS IN THE WESTERN PART. IN CONTRAST,
THE SHEAR OVER VERNON IS ALSO PRESENT BUT LESS SEVERE WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL SUPPLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT LIMITING
GREATLY THE MAINTENANCE OF THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF VERNON WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT
24/36 HOURS LEAVING A TROPICAL CYCLONE (OR EVEN LESS) WELL WEAKENED
AT THE END OF ITS INTERACTION AND ITS LOOPED TRACK. THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR THE MOMENT BUT WILL DECREASE WELL DURING THE
LOOP CONTRIBUTING AGAIN TO ATTENUATE THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. NOTE
THAT THE SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN TO OUR BASIN WITH WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN PART THAT CAN APPROACH 35KT BY GRADIENT EFFECT AND RAPID
MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR
REMAINS AT A GOOD DISTANCE IN THE NORTHERN PART, THE WIND SHEAR IS
MORE PRESENT ON THE SOUTHERN PART AND ALLOWS ONLY A MODERATE
REINTENSIFICATION UNTIL TUESDAY. CONTINUING ITS DESCENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES, THE WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE NORTH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO LEAD IT TO THE
STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 261819 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 88.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 12 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/27 AT 06 UTC:
13.1 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/27 AT 18 UTC:
13.6 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 261809
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 88.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 12 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/27 AT 06 UTC:
13.1 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/27 AT 18 UTC:
13.6 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 220226123311
2022022612 14S VERNON 004 02 295 12 SATL 050
T000 142S 0880E 100 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 137S 0869E 105 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 137S 0862E 115 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 142S 0857E 120 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 153S 0853E 115 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 180S 0845E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 211S 0827E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 248S 0802E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 88.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 88.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.7S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.7S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.2S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.3S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.0S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.1S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.8S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 87.7E.
26FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
10037 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270300Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA)
1422022400 128S 968E 15
1422022406 130S 961E 25
1422022412 131S 958E 30
1422022418 133S 956E 30
1422022500 135S 952E 35
1422022506 139S 944E 45
1422022512 145S 933E 70
1422022512 145S 933E 70
1422022512 145S 933E 70
1422022518 147S 925E 80
1422022518 147S 925E 80
1422022600 148S 908E 100
1422022600 148S 908E 100
1422022600 148S 908E 100
1422022606 147S 891E 115
1422022606 147S 891E 115
1422022606 147S 891E 115
1422022612 142S 880E 100
1422022612 142S 880E 100
1422022612 142S 880E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 88.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 88.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.7S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.7S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.2S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.3S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.0S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.1S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.8S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 87.7E.
26FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
10037 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270300Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261224
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/7/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 88.0 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 956 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2022 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 27/02/2022 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 335 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 28/02/2022 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 35

48H: 28/02/2022 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 01/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SO: 260 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 130 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 01/03/2022 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 480 SO: 305 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 155 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SO: 345 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65

120H: 03/03/2022 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SO: 260 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 90

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.5+

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE L'EFFET FUJIWARA, LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
VERNON PRESENTE UNE EVOLUTION DE SA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE
INITIALEMENT EN OEIL VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA
MASSE AU COURS DES DERNIERS INSTANTS, AVEC DES SIGNES DE
CISAILLEMENT. LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST S'ORIENTE
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE NORD-NORD-OUEST. DANS CES CONDITIONS,
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST REVUE A LA BAISSE LAISSANT UNE ESTIMATION DE
VENT DE L'ORDRE DE 95KT ET UNE FORTE DISSYMETRIE DANS LES EXTENSIONS
DE VENT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION EST DELICATE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 48H. L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD
FAIBLIT ET LAISSE UNE PLACE PREDOMINATE A UN EFFET FUJIWARA AVEC LE
SYSTEME LOCALISE PLUS AU NORD-EST DE VERNON. DU FAIT DE LA PRESENCE
DE CE SYSTEME, LA TRAJECTOIRE VA PRESENTER UNE BOUCLE VERS LE NORD LE
REPLACANT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST DANS LES
48H. LA SORTIE DE CETTE BOUCLE SEMBLE UN PEU PLUS TARDIVE QUE PREVUE
PRECEDEMMENT DU FAIT DE LA RESISTANCE UN PEU PLUS MARQUEE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DE VERNON. PAR LA SUITE,
VERNON EST GUIDE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST PAR LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
D'ALTITUDE FORCISSANT SITUE A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET LE TALWEG CIRCULANT
PLUS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA AMENANT VERNON VERS LES
25S A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST TOUT AUSSI DIFFICILE DU FAIT DE
L'INTERACTION ENTRE LES DEUX SYSTEMES. CELA VA INDUIRE UNE GENE
MUTUELLE MAIS QUI SERA MOINS MARQUE POUR VERNON. LES DIFFERENTES
GUIDANCES SONT PLUTOT EN ACCORD SUR CE POINT. LE SYSTEME AU NORD-EST
SUR LE BASSIN AUSTRALIEN VA SE RETROUVER DANS UNE ZONE DE
CISAILLEMENT S'ACCENTUANT ET UN MANQUE DE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES DANS LA PARTIE SUD. PAR OPPOSSION, LE CISAILLEMENT SUR VERNON
EST AUSSI PRESENT MAIS MOINS GENANT ALORS QUE L'ALIMENTATION DE
BASSES COUCHES SUR LA PARTIE NORD EST QUASIMENT INEXISTANTE LIMITANT
GRANDEMENT LE MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE DE VERNON. DANS CES CONDITIONS,
L'INTENSITE DE VERNON VA BAISSER AU COURS DES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES
LAISSANT UN CYCLONE TROPICAL (VOIRE MOINS) BIEN AFFAIBLI A LA FIN DE
SON INTERACTION ET DE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN BOUCLE. LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EST POUR LE MOMENT PRESENT MAIS VA BIEN BAISSER LORS DE LA
BOUCLE CONTRIBUANT ENCORE A ATTENUER L'INTENSITE DE VERNON. A NOTER
QUE LE SECOND SYSTEME DEVRAIT REVENIR SUR NOTRE BASSIN AVEC DES VENTS
DANS LA PARTIE SUD POUVANT APPROCHER LES 35KT PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT
ET DE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DANS LES 12-18 PROCHAINES HEURES. PAR LA
SUITE, BIEN QUE L'AIR SEC RESTE A BONNE DISTANCE DANS LA PARTIE NORD,
LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT EST PLUS PRESENT SUR LA PARTIE SUD ET NE
PERMET QU'UNE REINTENSIFACATION MODEREE JUSQU'A MARDI. CONTINUANT SA
DESCENTE VERS LES LATITUDE SUD, LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ET
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC PAR LE NORD VONT ENTAMER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME POUR LE CONDUIRE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE A
ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, CE SYSTEME RESTE LOIN DES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/7/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 88.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/27 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/27 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/02/28 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

48H: 2022/02/28 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/01 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 480 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/02 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SW: 345 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/03 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 90

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5+

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT, THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE VERNON SHOWS AN EVOLUTION OF ITS CLOUD CONFIGURATION
INITIALLY IN EYE TOWARDS A CONFIGURATION OF CDO PATTERN DURING THE
LAST MOMENTS, WITH SIGNS OF SHEARING. THE TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS
PROGRESSIVELY ORIENTED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN THESE CONDITIONS,
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS REVISED DOWNWARDS LEAVING A WIND ESTIMATE OF
ABOUT 95KT AND A STRONG DISSYMMETRY IN THE WIND EXTENSIONS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FORECAST IS DELICATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH IS
WEAKENING AND LEAVING A PREDOMINANT PLACE TO A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
THE SYSTEM LOCATED MORE NORTHEAST OF VERNON. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM, THE TRACK WILL PRESENT A LOOP TOWARDS THE NORTH PUTTING
IT BACK ON A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE EXIT OF
THIS LOOP SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
BECAUSE OF THE MORE MARKED RESISTANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE
SOUTH-WEST OF VERNON. THEREAFTER, VERNON IS GUIDED TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH ALTITUDE GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS TRACK WILL
CONTINUE BRINGING VERNON TOWARDS THE 25S ON THURSDAY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MUTUAL GENE BUT IT WILL
BE LESS MARKED FOR VERNON. THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES ARE RATHER IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
AUSTRALIAN BASIN WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONE OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A
LACK OF CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS IN THE SOUTHERN PART. IN CONTRAST,
THE SHEAR OVER VERNON IS ALSO PRESENT BUT LESS SEVERE WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL SUPPLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT LIMITING
GREATLY THE MAINTENANCE OF THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF VERNON WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS LEAVING A TROPICAL CYCLONE (OR EVEN LESS) WELL WEAKENED AT THE
END OF ITS INTERACTION AND ITS LOOPED TRACK. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS
PRESENT FOR THE MOMENT BUT WILL DECREASE WELL DURING THE LOOP
CONTRIBUTING AGAIN TO ATTENUATE THE INTENSITY OF VERNON. NOTE THAT
THE SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN TO OUR BASIN WITH WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN PART THAT CAN APPROACH 35KT BY GRADIENT EFFECT AND RAPID
MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR
REMAINS AT A GOOD DISTANCE IN THE NORTHERN PART, THE WIND SHEAR IS
MORE PRESENT ON THE SOUTHERN PART AND ALLOWS ONLY A MODERATE
REINTENSIFICATION UNTIL TUESDAY. CONTINUING ITS DESCENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES, THE WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE NORTH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO LEAD IT TO THE
STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 261201
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON) 956 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 88.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 12 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/27 AT 00 UTC:
12.5 S / 88.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/27 AT 12 UTC:
13.4 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260629
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/7/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7 S / 89.4 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2022 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 165 SO: 85 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 30

24H: 27/02/2022 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 335 SO: 150 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 85 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 30

36H: 27/02/2022 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SO: 30 NO: 30

48H: 28/02/2022 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 30

60H: 28/02/2022 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SO: 215 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 110 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

72H: 01/03/2022 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 480 SO: 315 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 185 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 03/03/2022 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SO: 270 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 90

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

INITIALEMENT SUIVI PAR LE CENTRE DE PERTH, LE CYCLONE TROPICAL VERNON
(NOM DE BAPTEME ISSU DU BASSIN AUSTRALIEN) EST RENTRE SUR LE BASSIN
DU SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN UN PEU AVANT 0400UTC. A 00UTC, LE
CENTRE DE PERTH LE LOCALISE VERS 14.8S/90.9E AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK
DE 6.0 SOIT DES VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE 100KT. AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A PEU EVOLUE LAISSANT UNE
ANALYSE DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 6 HEURES DE 6.0+ SOIT DES VENTS MOYENS DE
L'ORDRE 105KT. LA TAILLE DE L'OEIL PERMET D'ESTIMER DES RAYONS DE
VENT MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 6MN (SOIT PRES DE 12KM) DEFINISSANT UN
SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE. ON NOTERA LA PRESENCE D'UNE DEPRESSION
TROPICALE AU NORD (QUI PAR EFFET DE FUJIWARA A BASCULE SUR LE BASSIN
AUSTRALIEN PEU DE TEMPS APRES 03UTC) ET PRESENTANT DES VENTS DE 35KT
DANS LA PARTIE NORD ET PLUS SENSIBLEMENT 40KT DANS LE QUADRANT
NORD-EST D'APRES LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0258UTC. CE DEUXIEME SYSTEME NE
SERA PAS SUIVI PAR DES BULLETINS SPECIFIQUES EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA
REUNION.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
SITUEE BIEN AU SUD FAIBLIT ET LAISSE UNE PLACE GRANDISSANTE A UN
EFFET FUJIWARA AVEC LE SYSTEME LOCALISE PLUS AU NORD DE VERNON. DU
FAIT DE LA PRESENCE DE CE SYSTEME , LA TRAJECTOIRE VA PRESENTER UNE
BOUCLE VERS LE NORD LE REPLACANT SUR UNE TRAJETOIRE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST DANS LES 48H. PAR LA SUITE, VERNON EST GUIDE VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST PAR LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS D'ALTITUDE FORCISSANT SITUE
A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET LE TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA AMENANT VERNON VERS LES 25S A ECHEANCE DE
JEUDI.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, L'INTERACTION ENTRE LES DEUX SYSTEMES VA
INDUIRE UNE GENE MUTUELLE MAIS QUI SERA MOINS MARQUE POUR VERNON. LE
SYSTEME AU NORD QUI RENTRE SUR LE BASSIN AUSTRALIEN VA SE RETROUVE
DANS UNE ZONE DE CISAILLEMENT S'ACCENTUANT ET UN MANQUE DE
CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES DANS LA PARTIE SUD. PAR OPPOSSION, LE
CISAILLEMENT SUR VERNON EST AUSSI PRESENT MAIS MOINS GENANT ALORS QUE
L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES SUR LA PARTIE NORD EST QUASIMENT
INEXISTANTE LIMITANT GRANDEMENT LE MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE DE VERNON.
DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DE VERNON VA BAISSER AU COURS DES 48
PROCHAINES HEURES LAISSANT UN CLYCLONE TROPICAL (VOIRE MOINS) BIEN
AFFAIBLI A LA FIN DE SON INTERACTION ET DE SA TRAJECOIRE EN BOUCLE.
LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST POUR LE MOMENT PRESENT MAIS VA BIEN
BAISSER LORS DE LA BOUCLE CONTRIBUANT ENCORE A ATTENUER L'INTENSITE
DE VERNON. PAR LA SUITE, BIEN QUE L'AIR SEC RESTE A BONNE DISTANCE
DANS LA PARTIE NORD, LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT EST PLUS PRESENT SUR LA
PARTIE SUD ET NE PERMET QU'UNE REINTENSIFACATION MODEREE JUSQU'A
MARDI. CONTINUANT SA DESCENTE VERS LES LATITUDE SUD, LE CISAILLEMENT
DE VENT ET L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC PAR LE NORD VONT ENTAMER
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME POUR LE CONDUIRE AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, CE SYSTEME RESTE LOIN DES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 89.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/26 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 30

24H: 2022/02/27 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 335 SW: 150 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 30

36H: 2022/02/27 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2022/02/28 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2022/02/28 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 215 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

72H: 2022/03/01 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/02 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 480 SW: 315 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2022/03/03 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 90

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

INITIALLY TRACKED BY THE PERTH CENTER, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VERNON
(NAMED ACCORDING TO THE AUSTRALIAN BASIN) ENTERED THE SOUTH-WEST
INDIAN OCEAN BASIN A LITTLE BEFORE 0400UTC. AT 00UTC, THE PERTH
CENTER LOCATED IT AT 14.8S/90.9E WITH A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 6.0, THAT
IS TO SAY ESTIMATED AVERAGE WINDS OF ABOUT 100KT. DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE LEAVING A 6 HOUR AVERAGE
DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 6.0+ OR AVERAGE WINDS IN THE 105KT RANGE. THE SIZE
OF THE EYE ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS OF ABOUT 6MN (ABOUT
12KM) DEFINING A SMALL-SCALE SYSTEM. WE WILL NOTE THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NORTH (WHICH BY EFFECT OF FUJIWARA MOVED
ON THE AUSTRALIAN BASIN SHORTLY AFTER 03UTC) AND PRESENTING WINDS OF
35KT IN THE NORTHERN PART AND MORE APPRECIABLY 40KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT ACCORDING TO THE 0258UTC ASCAT SWATH. THIS SECOND SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE FOLLOWED BY SPECIFIC WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE RSMC OF THE
REUNION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTH IS WEAKENING AND LEAVING A GROWING PLACE TO A
FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH THE SYSTEM LOCATED MORE NORTH OF VERNON. DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, THE TRACK WILL PRESENT A LOOP TOWARDS
THE NORTH PUTTING IT BACK ON A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK WITHIN 48
HOURS. THEREAFTER, VERNON IS GUIDED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY
THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF ALTITUDE FORCING LOCATED AT THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE TROUGH CIRCULATING MORE IN THE SOUTH. THIS TRACK WILL
CONTINUE, TAKING VERNON TOWARDS THE 25S BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
INDUCE A MUTUAL DISCOMFORT BUT WHICH WILL BE LESS MARKED FOR VERNON.
THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH ENTERING THE AUSTRALIAN BASIN WILL BE IN A
ZONE OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A LACK OF CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS IN
THE SOUTHERN PART. IN CONTRAST, THE SHEAR OVER VERNON IS ALSO PRESENT
BUT LESS SEVERE WHILE THE LOW LEVEL SUPPLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART IS
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT LIMITING GREATLY THE MAINTENANCE OF THE INTENSITY
OF VERNON. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF VERNON WILL DECREASE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS LEAVING A TROPICAL CLYCLONE (OR EVEN LESS)
WELL WEAKENED AT THE END OF ITS INTERACTION AND ITS LOOPING TRACK.
THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR THE MOMENT BUT WILL DECREASE
WELL DURING THE LOOP CONTRIBUTING TO ATTENUATE THE INTENSITY OF
VERNON. THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR REMAINS AT A GOOD DISTANCE
IN THE NORTHERN PART, THE WIND SHEAR IS MORE PRESENT ON THE SOUTHERN
PART AND ALLOWS ONLY A MODERATE REINTENSIFICATION UNTIL TUESDAY.
CONTINUING ITS DESCENT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, THE WIND SHEAR
AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR BY THE NORTH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM TO LEAD IT TO THE STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY
THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 260602
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (VERNON) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 89.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/26 AT 18 UTC:
14.0 S / 88.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/27 AT 06 UTC:
12.9 S / 88.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
EXTENSION OF 35/40KT WINDS TO 350MN IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH OF VERNON.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 220226024114
2022022600 14S VERNON 003 02 265 16 SATL 010
T000 148S 0908E 100 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 142S 0890E 120 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 137S 0883E 125 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 141S 0879E 130 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 145S 0873E 125 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 163S 0862E 125 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 192S 0846E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 221S 0833E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 90.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 90.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.2S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.7S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.1S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.5S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.3S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.2S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.1S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 90.3E.
26FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1172 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1422022400 128S 968E 15
1422022406 130S 961E 25
1422022412 131S 958E 30
1422022418 133S 956E 30
1422022500 135S 952E 35
1422022506 139S 944E 45
1422022512 145S 933E 70
1422022512 145S 933E 70
1422022512 145S 933E 70
1422022518 147S 925E 80
1422022518 147S 925E 80
1422022600 148S 908E 100
1422022600 148S 908E 100
1422022600 148S 908E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 90.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 90.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.2S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.7S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.1S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.5S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.3S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.2S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.1S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 90.3E.
26FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
10061 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 220225131501
2022022512 14S VERNON 002 02 240 12 SATL 060
T000 145S 0933E 070 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 149S 0913E 085 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 144S 0895E 100 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 139S 0886E 100 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 143S 0889E 105 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 161S 0872E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 189S 0861E 095 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 223S 0850E 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 93.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 93.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.9S 91.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.4S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.9S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.3S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.1S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.9S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.3S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 92.8E.
25FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
250 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.
//
1422022400 128S 968E 15
1422022406 130S 961E 25
1422022412 131S 958E 30
1422022418 133S 956E 30
1422022500 135S 952E 35
1422022506 139S 944E 45
1422022512 145S 933E 70
1422022512 145S 933E 70
1422022512 145S 933E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 93.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 93.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.9S 91.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.4S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.9S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.3S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.1S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.9S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.3S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 92.8E.
25FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
250 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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