Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for AGATHA-22
in Mexico

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 311612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.05.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 95.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.05.2022 0 17.3N 95.3W 1005 26
0000UTC 01.06.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 20.6N 86.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.06.2022 72 22.0N 85.6W 1002 32
0000UTC 04.06.2022 84 23.0N 84.5W 1000 37
1200UTC 04.06.2022 96 25.0N 83.2W 1000 35
0000UTC 05.06.2022 108 26.9N 80.7W 999 32
1200UTC 05.06.2022 120 30.3N 77.6W 995 42
0000UTC 06.06.2022 132 31.8N 74.7W 991 46
1200UTC 06.06.2022 144 35.0N 70.8W 991 49


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311612

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 311612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.05.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 95.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.05.2022 17.3N 95.3W WEAK
00UTC 01.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 20.6N 86.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.06.2022 22.0N 85.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.06.2022 23.0N 84.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.06.2022 25.0N 83.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.06.2022 26.9N 80.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.06.2022 30.3N 77.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.06.2022 31.8N 74.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.06.2022 35.0N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311612

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 311600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 015
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 95.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 95.3W
---
REMARKS:
31MAY22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (AGATHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1509 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 311443
TCDEP1

Remnants Of Agatha Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

The mountainous terrain of southern Mexico continues to take a
toll on Agatha. Although a fairly well-defined mid-level
circulation is still evident in satellite imagery, the low-level
center has dissipated over southern Mexico. Therefore, this will
be the final advisory on Agatha. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 25 kt, and continued weakening should occur today. The
remnants are moving northeastward or 045/7 kt and this general
motion should persist for the next 48 h or so.

Deep convection, with heavy rainfall, extends across southeastern
Mexico and Guatemala. This moisture will spread eastward across
the remainder of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula,
Guatemala, and Belize during the next day or so. During this
time frame, numerical model guidance suggests that the remnants of
Agatha will be absorbed within a larger cyclonic gyre over
southeastern Mexico. Development within the broad low could occur
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southeastern Gulf of Mexico
later this week. Please see NHC's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
for more details.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with remnants of Agatha will continue
over portions of southern Mexico through tonight. This will pose a
threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 17.3N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF AGATHA
12H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 311440
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Agatha Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...REMNANTS OF AGATHA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 94.9W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Agatha were located near
latitude 17.3 North, longitude 94.9 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the remnants
of Agatha will continue to move inland over southern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through tonight. The following storm total rainfall amounts
are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on heavy
rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national
meteorological service.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 311440
TCMEP1

REMNANTS OF AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
1500 UTC TUE MAY 31 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 94.9W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 94.9W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 95.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 94.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 311144
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
700 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Agatha
was located inland over southern Mexico near latitude 17.0 North,
longitude 95.3 West. Agatha is moving toward the northeast near 8
mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
today. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will continue to
move farther inland over southern Mexico this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Agatha is
forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by this afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along the
coast of southern Mexico through this morning.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through tonight. The following storm total rainfall amounts
are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 014
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 95.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 95.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.2N 95.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 95.5W.
31MAY22. TROPICAL STORM 01E (AGATHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1509
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311600Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 310836
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Agatha's deep convection is becoming oriented in lines to the east
and south of the mid-level center of rotation, extending across the
waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Assuming a fast rate of wind
decay over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico, Agatha's
current intensity is estimated to be 40 kt. The initial motion
remains northeastward (045/7 kt), which will take Agatha farther
inland over southeastern Mexico today. A 12-hour remnant low point
is provided in the forecast for continuity, but it's likely that the
rugged terrain will cause Agatha to dissipate by this afternoon.

Global model guidance continues to suggest that Agatha's remnants
will become absorbed by a larger low-level cyclonic gyre over
southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days, with that new
system having development potential over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late this week. Please see
NHC's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more details.
Regardless of new development, Agatha's remnants and the larger gyre
will continue to cause heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash floods over portions of southeastern Mexico over the next day
or two.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through tonight. This will pose a threat of
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in squalls, will continue
within the warning area through this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 16.8N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/1800Z 17.2N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 310835
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DUE TO AGATHA'S HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NNW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Bahias de Huatulco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bahias de Huatulco eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located inland over southern Mexico near latitude 16.8 North,
longitude 95.5 West. Agatha is moving toward the northeast near 8
mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
today. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will continue to
move farther inland over southern Mexico this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Agatha is
forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in squalls, are
expected to continue in the warning area through this morning.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through tonight. The following storm total rainfall amounts
are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 310835
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
0900 UTC TUE MAY 31 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WEST OF BAHIAS DE HUATULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIAS DE HUATULCO EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 95.5W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 95.5W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 95.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.2N 95.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 95.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 31/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 310533
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
100 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...AGATHA'S HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OAXACA INTO
VERACRUZ, CHIAPAS, AND TABASCO STATES...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 95.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located inland over southern Mexico near latitude 16.5 North,
longitude 95.8 West. Agatha is moving toward the northeast near 8
mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
today. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will continue to
move farther inland over Oaxaca this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Agatha is
forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning areas through this morning.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through tonight. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 310408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.05.2022

HURRICANE AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 96.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.05.2022 0 15.8N 96.6W 999 36
1200UTC 31.05.2022 12 17.2N 95.2W 1005 23
0000UTC 01.06.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.7N 87.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.06.2022 72 19.4N 87.0W 1001 30
1200UTC 03.06.2022 84 21.6N 86.3W 1001 33
0000UTC 04.06.2022 96 23.1N 85.6W 999 34
1200UTC 04.06.2022 108 24.0N 84.4W 999 37
0000UTC 05.06.2022 120 25.9N 82.3W 998 32
1200UTC 05.06.2022 132 27.5N 80.4W 998 38
0000UTC 06.06.2022 144 32.3N 76.9W 994 47


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310408

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 310408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.05.2022

HURRICANE AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 96.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.05.2022 15.8N 96.6W MODERATE
12UTC 31.05.2022 17.2N 95.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.7N 87.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.06.2022 19.4N 87.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.06.2022 21.6N 86.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.06.2022 23.1N 85.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.06.2022 24.0N 84.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.06.2022 25.9N 82.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.06.2022 27.5N 80.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.06.2022 32.3N 76.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310408

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 310400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 96.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 96.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.9N 95.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310400Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 96.1W.
31MAY22. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1510 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 311000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 310237
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Agatha continues to move farther
inland, with a less organized cloud pattern. The initial wind speed
is lowered to 60 kt, on the faster side of the overland weakening
guidance due to the very high terrain. Agatha should continue to
quickly weaken overnight due to further interactions with the
mountains of Mexico, and it is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday
afternoon near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

The storm is moving northeastward at 7 kt. The global models
continue to suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a
broad low pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is
some potential for the development of a new tropical cyclone in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico later this
week.

Although Agatha is weakening, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides from heavy rains are still possible through Tuesday.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning
area through Tuesday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 16.2N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/1200Z 16.9N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 310236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...AGATHA COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 96.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua, the Hurricane
Warning from Lagunas de Chacahua to Salina Cruz and the Hurricane
Watch from Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Puerto Escondido to Salina Cruz.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 96.2 West. Agatha is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Agatha will continue to move inland over
Oaxaca through early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Agatha is
forecast to dissipate over Mexico by Tuesday afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning areas through Tuesday morning.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are forecast to slowly recede near the
coast overnight.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 310235
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
0300 UTC TUE MAY 31 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA...THE HURRICANE
WARNING FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO SALINA CRUZ...AND THE HURRICANE
WATCH FROM SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUERTO ESCONDIDO TO SALINA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ESCONDIDO EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 96.2W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 96.2W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 96.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.9N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 96.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 31/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 302342
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
700 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...AGATHA CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 96.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 96.4 West. Agatha is moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Agatha will continue to move inland over Oaxaca through
early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as the hurricane
moves farther inland. Agatha is forecast to weaken to a tropical
storm tonight, and dissipate over southeastern Mexico by late
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread inland within a
portion of the hurricane warning area through this evening.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area through this
evening. Tropical storm conditions will spread eastward within the
warning area through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 15.4N 96.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 96.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.4N 95.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.3N 94.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.0N 93.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 96.5W.
30MAY22. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1512 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310400Z, 311000Z, 311600Z AND 312200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 302047
TCDEP1

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Agatha has made landfall along the
coast of southern Mexico just west of Puerto Angel within the past
half-hour. The landfall intensity is estimated to have been 90 kt,
which is based on several SFMR wind measurements from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft around midday and subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates. It is worth noting that the
minimum pressure decreased several millibars between the aircraft
center passes, which coincided with the eye becoming more apparent
in visible satellite imagery. These data along with a 1747 UTC GMI
microwave pass suggest Agatha may have completed an eyewall
replacement cycle around that time. The initial intensity remains 90
kt for this advisory, but rapid weakening should commence very soon
as the core of the hurricane interacts with the mountainous terrain
of southern Mexico. Agatha is forecast to dissipate over
southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday. The global models continue to
suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a broad low
pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is some
potential for development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico later this week.

Agatha remains on a northeastward heading at about 7 kt. This
general motion should continue until dissipation occurs on Tuesday.
The updated NHC track forecast is once again near the middle of the
tightly clustered guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge,
accompanied by large and destructive waves, will continue through
this evening near and to the east of where Agatha made landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will continue in portions
of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will spread eastward within the warning
area through tonight.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 15.7N 96.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0600Z 16.4N 95.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1800Z 17.3N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0600Z 18.0N 93.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 302046
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...AGATHA MAKES LANDFALL JUST WEST OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 96.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 96.6 West. Agatha is moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Agatha will continue to move inland over Oaxaca through
early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as the hurricane moves farther
inland. Agatha is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later
tonight, and dissipate over southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread inland within a
portion of the hurricane warning area through this evening.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area through this
evening. Tropical storm conditions will spread eastward within the
warning area through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 302046
TCMEP1

HURRICANE AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
2100 UTC MON MAY 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AGATHA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 96.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 96.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 96.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.4N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.3N 94.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.0N 93.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 96.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 31/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 301739
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
100 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS OAXACA...
...CORE OF AGATHA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 96.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 96.9 West. Agatha is moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Agatha will make landfall in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico,
during the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Agatha
reaches the coast of Oaxaca. Rapid weakening is forecast after
landfall, and Agatha is expected to dissipate over southeastern
Mexico by late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km). An observation in Puerto Angel recently reported a
wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hunter aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area through this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are occurring along the coast of Oaxaca and will
spread eastward within the warning area through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 301610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.05.2022

HURRICANE AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 97.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.05.2022 0 15.2N 97.7W 970 80
0000UTC 31.05.2022 12 15.6N 96.7W 990 50
1200UTC 31.05.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 301610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.05.2022

HURRICANE AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 97.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.05.2022 15.2N 97.7W STRONG
00UTC 31.05.2022 15.6N 96.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 31.05.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301610

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 97.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 97.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.9N 96.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.8N 95.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.6N 94.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 97.0W.
30MAY22. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1505 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z AND 311600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 301435
TCDEP1

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Outer rain bands continue to spread across southern Mexico as the
core of Agatha closes in on the coast, and conditions will
steadily worsen throughout the day in the state of Oaxaca. The
satellite presentation of the system has been relatively steady
state for the past several hours with hints of an eye occasionally
appearing within the central dense overcast. Convection remains
quite deep and symmetric around the center. Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB have been holding steady at 5.0, and therefore, the
initial intensity is again held at 95 kt. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is nearing the system and the data it collects will
be quite helpful in assessing the strength and structure of Agatha.

Agatha is moving to the northeast at 7 kt, and this motion should
take the core of the hurricane to the coast of Oaxaca this
afternoon. Not much change was made to the previous NHC track
forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The hurricane is expected to maintain its current intensity until
the core reaches the coast later today. After landfall, rapid
weakening is forecast, and Agatha will likely dissipate over
the rugged terrain of southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday.
However, the global models suggest that the mid-level remnants will
merge with a broader low pressure system, which is being monitored
for potential development in the Atlantic basin.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge,
accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected near and
to the east of where Agatha makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, this afternoon
and continuing through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
have already begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will spread
eastward within the warning area through tonight.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 15.3N 97.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 15.9N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0000Z 17.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 301435
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...AGATHA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS OAXACA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 97.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 97.1 West. Agatha is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Agatha will make landfall in the state of
Oaxaca, Mexico, this afternoon or this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today before Agatha
reaches the coast of Oaxaca. Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall, and Agatha is forecast to dissipate over southeastern
Mexico by late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km). An observation in Puerto Angel recently reported a wind
gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area by this afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions have begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will
spread eastward within the warning area through the day.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 301434
TCMEP1

HURRICANE AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
1500 UTC MON MAY 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AGATHA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 97.1W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 97.1W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 97.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.9N 96.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.6N 94.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 97.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 301134
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
700 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...AGATHA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 97.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 97.3 West. Agatha is moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Agatha will make landfall in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico,
this afternoon or this evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today before Agatha
reaches the coast of Oaxaca. Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall, and Agatha is forecast to dissipate over southeastern
Mexico by late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area by this afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions have begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will
spread eastward within the warning area through the day.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 98.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 98.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.4N 96.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.3N 95.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.9N 94.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 97.6W.
30MAY22. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1505 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND 311000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 300844
TCDEP1

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Agatha's satellite presentation has remained fairly steady state
since last evening. The center is embedded beneath a compact
central dense overcast, but there have been no microwave satellite
passes overnight to provide a better view of the hurricane's
structure. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are also steady,
remaining at T5.0, so Agatha's initial intensity is being held at
what the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found yesterday--95 kt.
A second and final Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for later
this morning, assuming the center isn't too close to the coast and
the plane can navigate a safe distance away from the nearby
mountainous terrain.

We did receive two ASCAT passes a few hours ago, which indicated
that tropical-storm-force winds have begun along the coast of
Oaxaca. The scatterometers also helped to refine Agatha's position,
and the initial motion remains slowly northeastward, or 055/5 kt.
This northeastward motion is expected to continue today, and
Agatha's center should cross the coast of Oaxaca within the next
12-18 hours. The center, or Agatha's remnants, should then continue
northeastward over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. There have been no
notable shifts in the latest track guidance, thus the new NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one.

Agatha has another 12 hours or so to take advantage of warm 29
degree Celsius waters. However, the hurricane doesn't seem to have
been able to benefit from the waters during the previous 12 hours,
and it's not entirely clear if it will strengthen before landfall.
One potential negative influence is the nearby coastal mountains of
southern Mexico, which are likely to disrupt the low-level
circulation of the relatively small hurricane. Nearly all of the
intensity models show Agatha weakening immediately, but the NHC
forecast will maintain a steady intensity up until landfall, with
rapid weakening occurring once Agatha makes landfall and moves over
the rough terrain. This forecast does not preclude the possibility
of some intensification before landfall. Dissipation of Agatha's
surface circulation over southern Mexico is now expected by 48
hours.


Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge,
accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected near and the
east of where Agatha makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, starting midday
and continuing through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
have already begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will spread
eastward within the warning area through today and tonight.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 14.8N 97.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 15.4N 96.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 16.3N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1800Z 16.9N 94.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300844
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST OF OAXACA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER
OAXACA THROUGH THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 97.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 97.7 West. Agatha is moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Agatha will make landfall in the state of Oaxaca,
Mexico, this afternoon or this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today before Agatha
reaches the coast of Oaxaca. Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall, and Agatha is forecast to dissipate over southeastern
Mexico by late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area by this afternoon or this
evening. Tropical storm conditions have begun along the coast
of Oaxaca and will spread eastward within the warning area through
the day.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 300844
TCMEP1

HURRICANE AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
0900 UTC MON MAY 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AGATHA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 97.7W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 97.7W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 98.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.4N 96.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.3N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 80SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.9N 94.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 97.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300550
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
100 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...AGATHA'S OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ONSHORE THE COAST OF OAXACA...
...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 98.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 98.0 West. Agatha is moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of
Agatha will make landfall in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico, this
afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Agatha could still strengthen today before reaching the
coast of Oaxaca. Rapid weakening is expected over southeastern
Mexico tonight and on Tuesday after Agatha moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area by this afternoon or this
evening, with tropical storm conditions beginning this morning.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 300408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.05.2022

HURRICANE AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 98.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.05.2022 0 14.2N 98.3W 974 70
1200UTC 30.05.2022 12 15.2N 97.1W 971 80
0000UTC 31.05.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 18.5N 86.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.06.2022 108 18.5N 86.9W 1003 30
0000UTC 04.06.2022 120 20.6N 85.8W 1002 34
1200UTC 04.06.2022 132 21.3N 85.8W 1002 35
0000UTC 05.06.2022 144 22.0N 84.0W 1001 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300408

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 300408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.05.2022

HURRICANE AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 98.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.05.2022 14.2N 98.3W STRONG
12UTC 30.05.2022 15.2N 97.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.05.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 18.5N 86.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.06.2022 18.5N 86.9W WEAK
00UTC 04.06.2022 20.6N 85.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.06.2022 21.3N 85.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.06.2022 22.0N 84.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300408

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 98.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 98.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.9N 97.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.6N 96.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.7N 95.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.6N 94.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 98.1W.
30MAY22. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1504 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 300235
TCDEP1

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

It seems like the rapid intensification of Agatha has finally
leveled off. Satellite images show that while the hurricane
continues to have strong convection near the center, there is no
real sign of an eye emerging. In addition, recent microwave data
has degraded some since this afternoon, although the small inner
core is not easily resolved on most instruments. The 00Z TAFB/SAB
satellite classifications haven't changed from earlier, so the
initial wind speed will stay 95 kt on this advisory. Agatha still
has about a day to intensify over very warm waters with light
shear, and the hurricane should become a major hurricane before
landfall late Monday. Similar to last night, guidance has come
down from the last cycle, but I'm not falling for it this time.
The new forecast is primarily based on the last forecast and the
overall conducive environment for strengthening up until landfall.

Agatha is finally moving to the northeast, estimated at 055/5 kt.
The hurricane should continue moving to the northeast or
east-northeast at a little faster rate as it becomes embedded in
low- to mid-level southwesterly flow. Model guidance has shifted
slightly eastward since this afternoon, perhaps since the now
vertically deeper hurricane could feel the upper-level westerlies
more. Regardless, almost all of the models show Agatha near the
southern coast of the Mexican state of Oaxaca in about 24 hours, and
the new forecast is nudged eastward to come into line with the
latest consensus trackers. After landfall, rapid weakening is
forecast and Agatha is expected to dissipate over the high terrain
of southern Mexico late Tuesday.


Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge
accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the
east of where Agatha makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning there overnight or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area on Monday.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha over portions of southern
Mexico will continue through Tuesday. This rainfall will pose a
threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 14.5N 98.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.9N 97.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 15.6N 96.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 16.7N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/0000Z 17.6N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA EXPECTED TO BRING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 98.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 98.2 West. Agatha is
moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected overnight and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Agatha will make landfall in southern Mexico Monday
afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Agatha is forecast to strengthen into a category 3
hurricane on Monday and maintain that intensity through landfall.
Rapid weakening is expected over southeastern Mexico on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning tonight or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 300234
TCMEP1

HURRICANE AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
0300 UTC MON MAY 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AGATHA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 98.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 98.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 98.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.9N 97.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.6N 96.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.7N 95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.6N 94.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 98.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 292337
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
700 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 98.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 98.4 West. Agatha is moving
toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion
is expected overnight and Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Agatha will make landfall in southern Mexico Monday afternoon or
evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 12 to
24 hours and Agatha is forecast to become a major hurricane before
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday afternoon or
evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning tonight or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 98.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 98.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.5N 98.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.2N 97.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.0N 96.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.1N 95.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 98.6W.
29MAY22. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1503 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 292039
TCDEP1

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to intensify at a
rapid pace. The hurricane has a compact inner core and an eye
feature has recently become apparent in geostationary satellite
data. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt at
18Z. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating
Agatha and so far found maximum flight-level winds of 107 kt at 700
mb and maximum SFMR winds of about 90 kt. Based on that data, the
initial intensity is increased to 95 kt, which is just below major
hurricane strength, and the minimum pressure is estimated to be 964
mb.

The hurricane has not moved much during the past several hours, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be a slow and erratic 045/1
kt. The models agree that a more steady northeastward motion should
commence very soon, and that motion is expected to bring the core of
Agatha to the coast of southern Mexico Monday afternoon or evening.
The NHC track forecast has been shifted a little to the east of the
previous one based on the more eastward initial position.

Agatha has strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt over the past
24 hours, and it likely will intensify a little more as it is
expected to remain in generally favorable conditions until it
reaches the coast of Mexico. However, there is a chance of an
eyewall replacement cycle that could cause the intensity of the
hurricane to fluctuate. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast
and Agatha is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of
southern Mexico on Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous one and follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids
through landfall.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge
accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the
east of where Agatha makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area on Monday.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 14.1N 98.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 14.5N 98.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 15.2N 97.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 16.0N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1800Z 17.1N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 292038
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 98.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 98.7 West. Agatha is drifting
to the northeast near 1 mph (2 km/h), and a faster northeastward
motion is expected to begin tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Agatha will make landfall in southern Mexico
Monday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next 12 to 24 hours and Agatha is forecast to become a major
hurricane when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning tonight or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of VeraCruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 292037
TCMEP1

HURRICANE AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
2100 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AGATHA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 98.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 98.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 98.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.5N 98.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.2N 97.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.0N 96.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 15NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 80SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.1N 95.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 98.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 291734
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
100 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 99.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 99.0 West. Agatha is drifting
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected later today, with a motion toward the
northeast continuing through Monday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico
later today and tonight and make landfall there on Monday.

Agatha has continued to strengthen. Maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours and Agatha
is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the
coast of southern Mexico on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning tonight or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the
center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of VeraCruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 291610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.05.2022

HURRICANE AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 98.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.05.2022 0 13.9N 98.7W 989 52
0000UTC 30.05.2022 12 14.5N 98.4W 984 57
1200UTC 30.05.2022 24 15.1N 97.3W 981 62
0000UTC 31.05.2022 36 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 291610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.05.2022

HURRICANE AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 98.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.05.2022 13.9N 98.7W MODERATE
00UTC 30.05.2022 14.5N 98.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.05.2022 15.1N 97.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.05.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291610

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 99.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 99.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.4N 98.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.9N 98.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.7N 96.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.6N 95.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.4N 95.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 99.0W.
29MAY22. HURRICANE 01E (AGATHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1492 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND
301600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 291442
TCDEP1

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Agatha is rapidly intensifying. Recent conventional and microwave
satellite data have shown that the storm's convective structure has
significantly improved overnight and this morning. Overnight
microwave imagery indicated that a low to mid-level eye had formed
and more recent 1109 and 1206 UTC SSMIS overpasses revealed that
the inner-core structure has continued to improve. Subjective
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 77 and 65 kt,
respectively, while objective Dvorak estimates have increased to
near 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been set
at 75 kt.

The environment ahead of Agatha is expected to remain favorable
for further intensification. The hurricane is currently over SSTs
of around 30C, within low shear, and embedded in a moist low- to
mid-level atmosphere. As a result, continued steady to rapid
strengthening is predicted during the next 12-24 hours after which
time the hurricane's intensity is likely to level off due to a
possible eyewall cycle and/or interaction with land. The updated
NHC intensity forecast is notably higher than the previous advisory
due to the higher initial intensity and likelihood of continued
rapid strengthening today. The new intensity forecast brings Agatha
to near major hurricane strength before landfall in southern Mexico
and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. After landfall
Agatha should rapidly weaken as it moves over the mountains terrain
of southern Mexico.

Agatha has been meandering this morning, but the longer term initial
motion estimate is 345/2 kt. The hurricane should turn northward
this afternoon, and then begin to move on a faster northeastward
motion tonight and Monday as it becomes embedded in southwesterly
flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over northern Mexico and a
mid- to upper-level ridge to its east. On the foreast track, Agatha
is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico tonight, and
move onshore on Monday. The latest track guidance is once again
slower than before, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. The new NHC track remains near the middle of the
guidance envelope, close to the various consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large
and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha
makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area on Monday.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 14.1N 99.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.4N 98.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.9N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 16.6N 95.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 01/0000Z 17.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 291441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 99.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 99.0 West. Agatha is
moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later today, with a motion toward
the northeast continuing through Monday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of
Mexico later today and tonight and make landfall there on Monday.

Agatha is rapidly strengthening. Maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours and Agatha
is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the
coast of southern Mexico on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possibly in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning tonight or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the
center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of VeraCruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 291441
TCMEP1

HURRICANE AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AGATHA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.0W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.0W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 99.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.4N 98.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.9N 98.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.6N 95.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 99.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 291141
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
700 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE AGATHA REACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 99.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 99.0 West. Agatha is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later today, with a slow motion
toward the northeast continuing through Monday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern
coast of Mexico later today and make landfall there on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional intensification is anticipated up
until landfall on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possibly in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning late tonight or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the
center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico by later today into Tuesday night. The following
rainfall amounts are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern
Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (AGATHA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 98.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 98.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.4N 98.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.9N 98.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.5N 97.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.3N 96.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.1N 95.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 98.8W.
29MAY22. TROPICAL STORM 01E (AGATHA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1503 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO,
HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 12 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND
301000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 290848
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

During the past several hours, Agatha has somewhat shaken off the
effects of shear and dry air intrusion noted in the last advisory.
The convective pattern has improved in infrared satellite imagery,
and just-received GMI microwave data show that the low- and
mid-level centers have become better aligned. In addition, 37 GHz
microwave data show improved low-level convective banding near the
center, although there is not a closed ring of convection at this
time. The initial intensity is increased to 60 kt based on a blend
of the subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB along with the CIMSS ADT and satellite consensus estimates.

The motion has continued to be a bit erratic during the past several
hours, with the current motion estimated at 330/3 kt. Agatha is
expected to turn northeastward later today as it becomes embedded in
southwesterly flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over
northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level ridge to the east of the
cyclone. This motion should bring the center of Agatha over the
coast of southern Mexico on Monday. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, although the latest model runs are a
little slower than the previous runs. The new forecast track is in
the middle of the guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments
from the previous forecast.

The intensity forecast has gotten a little more uncertain. It now
appears that Agatha will experience light to moderate westerly shear
until landfall, which is somewhat less favorable of an environment
than previously expected. However, the storm is in a generally
moist environment with significant upper-level divergence, and it is
over warm sea surface temperatures. While the intensity guidance
has again trended slightly lower, the rapid intensification index of
the SHIPS model continues to indicate high probabilities of rapid
strengthening, with a 55-60 percent chance of a 45-kt increase
between now and landfall. Given the uncertainty, the intensity
forecast is again nudged slightly downward to follow the upper edge
of the intensity guidance. However, it is possible it is
conservative. After landfall, Agatha is expected to quickly weaken
and dissipate as it crosses Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large
and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha
makes landfall.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning there tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area on Monday.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.1N 98.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 14.4N 98.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 14.9N 98.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 15.5N 97.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 16.3N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1800Z 17.1N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 290840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA STRENGTHENING...
...TODAY IS YOUR LAST DAY TO PREPARE BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 98.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 98.8 West. Agatha is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later today, with a slow motion
toward the northeast continuing through Monday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern
coast of Mexico today and make landfall there on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Agatha is expected to become a hurricane later
today, and further intensification is anticipated up until landfall
on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possibly in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions possible tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning areas on Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the
center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico by later today into Tuesday night. The following
rainfall amounts are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Agatha are expected to begin affecting
the coast of southern Mexico this morning. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 290840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
0900 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AGATHA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 98.8W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 98.8W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 98.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 98.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 98.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.5N 97.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.3N 96.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 80SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.1N 95.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 98.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 290544
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
100 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...TODAY IS YOUR LAST DAY TO PREPARE BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 98.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 98.7 West. Agatha is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm
should move erratically this morning, followed by a northeastward
turn later today. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will
approach the southern coast of Mexico today and make landfall
there on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Agatha is expected to become a hurricane later today, and
further intensification is anticipated up until landfall on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions possible tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning areas on Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the
center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico today into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Agatha are expected to begin affecting
the coast of southern Mexico this morning. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 290410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.05.2022

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 99.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.05.2022 0 13.8N 99.1W 1002 34
1200UTC 29.05.2022 12 14.2N 99.1W 999 42
0000UTC 30.05.2022 24 14.5N 99.1W 996 43
1200UTC 30.05.2022 36 14.7N 98.2W 996 41
0000UTC 31.05.2022 48 15.0N 97.3W 995 40
1200UTC 31.05.2022 60 15.6N 95.3W 996 40
0000UTC 01.06.2022 72 15.7N 94.4W 1000 35
1200UTC 01.06.2022 84 15.3N 93.5W 1004 27
0000UTC 02.06.2022 96 14.4N 92.6W 1003 25
1200UTC 02.06.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 290409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.05.2022

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 99.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.05.2022 13.8N 99.1W WEAK
12UTC 29.05.2022 14.2N 99.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.05.2022 14.5N 99.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.05.2022 14.7N 98.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.05.2022 15.0N 97.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2022 15.6N 95.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.06.2022 15.7N 94.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2022 15.3N 93.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.06.2022 14.4N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290409

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 290236
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Conventional satellite imagery would suggest that Agatha has
continued to intensify, with a strong burst of convection near the
center. However, microwave data from the past few hours suggest
that the structure of Agatha has actually degraded since the last
advisory. This data reveals that the low- and mid-level centers of
the tropical cyclone are not well-aligned, and the small core seen
earlier has become less distinct. While the recent Dvorak
estimates have risen slightly, I'm inclined to leave the intensity
at 50 kt for this cycle given the microwave information.

It seems like a bit of dry air along with some mid-level shear are
potentially the reasons for the pause in intensification. This is
only expected to be a short-term trend, since the environment
generally looks to support more strengthening due to substantial
mid-level moisture in the storm's path along with plenty of warm
SSTs and low shear. The model guidance has trended lower on this
cycle, perhaps placing too much emphasis on the recent lack of
intensification. The new forecast is slightly lower than the
previous one, about 5 kt, but is higher than any of the guidance on
this cycle, owing to continuity and seemingly conducive large-scale
conditions before landfall.

The center of Agatha continues to wobble or even re-form near the
deepest convection, with a long-term motion estimate of 325/3 kt.
The storm should turn northeastward tomorrow and accelerate due to
it becoming embedded in low- to middle-level southwesterly flow.
Recent guidance has shifted somewhat westward near landfall in
southern Mexico, but this is mostly due to the more westward
initial position. The latest NHC track forecast is nudged westward
near Mexico, lying between the GFS and dynamical model consensus
TVCE. Agatha should dissipate over the higher terrain of Mexico in
about 3 days, although the remnants are likely to move over the
southwestern Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula around the middle of
next week.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large
and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha
makes landfall.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning there Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 13.9N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 14.1N 98.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 14.6N 98.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 15.2N 97.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 15.9N 96.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1200Z 16.7N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 290235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...AGATHA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...SUNDAY IS YOUR LAST DAY TO PREPARE BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 98.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.7 West. Agatha is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm should
move erratically overnight, followed by a northeastward turn later
on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will
approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall
there on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday, and
further intensification is anticipated up until landfall on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions possible Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning areas on Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the
center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts
are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Agatha are expected to begin affecting
the coast of southern Mexico tonight. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 290232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
0300 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AGATHA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.1N 98.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.6N 98.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.2N 97.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.9N 96.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 80SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.7N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 98.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 282331
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
700 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...AGATHA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 98.4W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
re-located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.4 West. Agatha is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is forecast to occur late tonight or Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern
coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast overnight, and Agatha
could become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions possible Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning areas on Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the
center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts
are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Agatha are expected to begin affecting
the coast of southern Mexico tonight. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 282033
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Agatha continues to gain strength. Satellite images show a
persistent central dense overcast feature and curved bands that
wrap about halfway around the center. An ASCAT-B pass from about
16Z showed peak winds of 40-45 kt. More recently, the Dvorak
classifications range from 45 to 55 kt. Based on all of this
satellite data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.

The center of Agatha has been wobbling around for much of the day,
but the general motion has been north-northwestward at 4 kt. A
continued slow and erratic northwest or north motion is likely
through tonight, followed by a more steady northeastward motion on
Sunday as the storm becomes embedded in the flow between a ridge to
the east and a trough to its northwest. This slightly faster
northeastward motion should take Agatha to the coast of southern
Mexico by late Monday. Overall, the models have trended eastward
and the official forecast has been nudged in that direction.

All of the large-scale environmental factors (wind shear, moisture,
SST/heat content) are expected to be close to ideal for Agatha until
it reaches the coast. Accordingly, several of the rapid
intensification indices in the SHIPS model are higher than 70
percent. Due to these factors and probabilistic guidance, the NHC
intensity forecast remains at the high end of models and shows rapid
intensification occurring in the short term. Rapid weakening is
forecast after the storm makes landfall, and although the storm is
expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico,
the remnants are likely to move over the southwestern Gulf and the
Yucatan Peninsula around the middle of next week.

Based on the current forecast, the government of Mexico has issued
hurricane and tropical storm warnings for southern Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning there Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday.

2. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 13.8N 98.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 14.0N 98.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 14.4N 98.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 14.9N 97.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 15.7N 96.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/0600Z 16.5N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 17.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 282032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...AGATHA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 98.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Salina
Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch from Salina Cruz to Barra De Tonala, and a Tropical Storm
Warning from Barra De Tonala to Boca de Pijijiapan and from
Lagunas De Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 98.1 West. Agatha is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is forecast to occur late tonight or Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the
southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Agatha
could become a hurricane by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions possible Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning areas on Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the
center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts
are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Agatha are expected to begin affecting
the coast of southern Mexico tonight. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 282031
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
2100 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM SALINA
CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE
WATCH FROM SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA...AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM BARRA DE TONALA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN AND FROM
LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA MALDONADO

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AGATHA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 98.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 98.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 98.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 97.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.5N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 98.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 281737
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
100 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...AGATHA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 98.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 98.0 West. Agatha is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the northeast is forecast to occur late tonight or Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern
coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Agatha is expected
to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible late
Sunday or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to
the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts
are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Agatha are expected to begin affecting
the coast of southern Mexico early Sunday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 281611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.05.2022

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 98.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.05.2022 0 13.3N 98.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 29.05.2022 12 13.8N 99.2W 1002 37
1200UTC 29.05.2022 24 14.2N 99.4W 999 38
0000UTC 30.05.2022 36 14.5N 99.2W 996 42
1200UTC 30.05.2022 48 14.7N 98.4W 995 44
0000UTC 31.05.2022 60 14.9N 97.3W 994 42
1200UTC 31.05.2022 72 15.2N 95.9W 998 37
0000UTC 01.06.2022 84 15.3N 94.7W 998 40
1200UTC 01.06.2022 96 14.8N 93.9W 1000 37
0000UTC 02.06.2022 108 14.4N 92.8W 1000 36
1200UTC 02.06.2022 120 13.9N 91.1W 1002 37
0000UTC 03.06.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281611

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 281611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.05.2022

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 98.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.05.2022 13.3N 98.8W WEAK
00UTC 29.05.2022 13.8N 99.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.05.2022 14.2N 99.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.05.2022 14.5N 99.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.05.2022 14.7N 98.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.05.2022 14.9N 97.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2022 15.2N 95.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.06.2022 15.3N 94.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2022 14.8N 93.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.06.2022 14.4N 92.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.06.2022 13.9N 91.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281611

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 281433
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to gradually become
better organized with a central dense overcast feature and a
series of curved bands evident in the latest imagery. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 2.5/35 kt, but given recent
trends, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 40 kt.

Agatha is gradually turning to the right, but at a slow forward
speed. Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of
285/4 kt. The storm is expected to gradually make a turn
to the north later today or tonight, followed by a slightly faster
northeastward motion on Sunday as Agatha becomes embedded in the
flow between a ridge to the east and a trough to its northwest.
This motion should take the storm inland over southern Mexico on
Monday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one
and near the various consensus aids.

The storm is expected to remain in near ideal environmental
conditions of very low wind shear, high SSTs and oceanic heat, and a
moist mid-level airmass until it reaches the coast of Mexico on
Monday. In fact, several of the rapid intensification indices in
the SHIPS model are higher than 60 percent, indicative that rapid
intensification is a distinct possibility during the next day or so.
Given these conditions and guidance, the NHC intensity forecast
remains at the high end of the models and calls for Agatha to become
a hurricane in 24 hours, with additional strengthening expected
until landfall.

Based on the current forecast, new watches and warnings will likely
be required later today.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico
Sunday night and Monday, and a Hurricane Watch remains in
effect for portions of this area. Interests should
closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the
forecast.

2. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 13.4N 98.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.8N 98.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 97.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 15.8N 96.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 281432
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...AGATHA MOVING SLOWLY OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 98.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 98.4 West. Agatha is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha
will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make
landfall there on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Agatha is
expected to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible late
Sunday or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to
the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall
amounts are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Chiapas and the eastern portions of Guerrero: 5 to
10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 281432
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AGATHA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.4W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 98.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.4N 98.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.8N 98.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.8N 97.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.8N 96.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 98.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 281130
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
700 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...AGATHA ON A STRENGTHENING TREND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY AS IT APPROACHES
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 98.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 98.4 West. Agatha is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha
will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make
landfall there on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible late
Sunday or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to
the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall
amounts are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Chiapas and the eastern portions of Guerrero: 5 to
10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 280909 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Corrected to add wind hazard section and watch definition

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM AGATHA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 98.1W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 98.1 West. Agatha is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha
will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and move near
or over the southern coast of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Sunday or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to
the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall
amounts are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Chiapas and the eastern portions of Guerrero: 5 to
10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 280858
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Convection associated with Tropical Depression One-E has become
better organized since the last advisory, with a small central
dense overcast forming and increasing outer banding in the
southeastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB
and TAFB were 30 and 35 kt at 06Z, and based on the increased
organization since that time the initial intensity is increased to
35 kt. Thus, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm
Agatha.

Agatha has slowed its forward speed with the initial motion now
270/3 kt. The combination of a mid- to upper-level trough moving
eastward across northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level ridge
building east of the storm should cause Agatha to turn
northwestward during the next 12 h or so, followed by recurvature to
the northeast. This track should bring the center of the cyclone
near or over the southern coast of Mexico between the 48-60 h
points. The guidance is in generally good agreement on this
scenario, although there is some spread near landfall due to
differences on how the track guidance models have Agatha
interacting with the Mexican mountains. The new forecast track is
in the center of the guidance envelope and has only minor
adjustments from the previous forecast.

Agatha is expected to be in a moist environment with light wind
shear, significant upper-level divergence, and warm sea surface
temperatures until landfall. This should allow steady to rapid
strengthening, and the SHIPS model rapid intensification index
shows a 70 percent chance of the storm strengthening 55 kt during
the next 48 h. The intensity forecast thus calls for the cyclone
to strengthen to a possibly conservative peak intensity of 85 kt by
60 h, which is at the upper edge of the guidance envelope. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall as Agatha moves over the
mountains of southern Mexico. There is a possibility that the
remnants of Agatha could emerge over the Bay of Campeche by 120 h,
but at this time it appears unlikely the system will still be a
tropical cyclone.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the southern
coast of Mexico. Additional watches and warnings will be required
for this area later today.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico
in the next two to three days, and a Hurricane Watch is now in
effect for portions of this area. Interests in this area should
closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the
forecast.

2. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 12.9N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 13.0N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 13.4N 98.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 13.9N 98.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 14.6N 98.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 15.3N 97.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 16.2N 96.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0600Z 17.9N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 280855
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM AGATHA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 98.1W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 98.1 West. Agatha is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha
will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and move near
or over the southern coast of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to
the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall
amounts are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Chiapas and the eastern portions of Guerrero: 5 to
10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 280854
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
0900 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AGATHA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 98.1W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 98.1W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 98.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.0N 98.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.4N 98.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.9N 98.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.6N 98.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.3N 97.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.2N 96.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.9N 94.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 98.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 280249
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

The satellite presentation of the low pressure system that the NHC
has been monitoring south of the southern coast of Mexico for the
past several days has greatly improved this evening. Earlier
microwave data and visible satellite imagery showed increased signs
of curved convective bands wrapping around the low-level center.
More recently, SSMIS microwave data suggest the inner-core structure
of the cyclone has improved, and very cold infrared cloud tops have
spread over the center. The system has achieved sufficient
convective organization to be designated as the first depression of
the 2022 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on a subjective T2.0/30 kt Dvorak
classification from TAFB, although the initial intensity is somewhat
uncertain given the lack of recent scatterometer data.

The system is moving westward at 265/6 kt, and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 12 h or so. A deep-layer trough
is forecast to amplify across the western U.S. this weekend, which
will weaken the ridge to the north of the cyclone. This will allow
the system to slowly turn northward on Sunday and then move
northeastward on Monday as it approaches southern Mexico. The
track models generally agree on this scenario, although the GFS is
somewhat further east than the rest of the guidance. The official
NHC forecast lies toward the center of the guidance envelope,
roughly in between the HFIP corrected-consensus approach (HCCA) and
the multi-model consensus aids.

Sea-surface temperatures greater than 30 deg C, weak deep-layer
vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture are expected to
support significant intensification of the cyclone this weekend. In
fact, all of the intensity guidance shows steady strengthening
during the next few days, and many models including the consensus
aids bring the cyclone to hurricane intensity within 48 h. The GFS
SHIPS-RII highlights the potential for rapid intensification of this
system, with a 52 percent chance of a 35-kt intensification in 24 h.
The official NHC intensity forecast shows steady strengthening
during the next few days, with the cyclone becoming a hurricane by
late Sunday with continued strengthening anticipated as it
approaches the coast on Monday. This forecast lies between the IVCN
and HCCA aids through 48-60 h, then falls on the higher end of the
guidance at 72 h as the official forecast track remains just off the
coast.

Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Watches will likely be required
Saturday morning for portions of the coast of southern Mexico, and
interests in this region should closely monitor the progress of this
system.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico
early next week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely
be required Saturday morning. Interests in this area should closely
monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast.

2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Depression One-E will
develop over portions of southern Mexico this weekend and continue
through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and
mudslides. For more information, see products from your local
weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 12.8N 97.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 12.8N 98.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 13.2N 98.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 13.7N 98.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 14.7N 98.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 01/0000Z 17.2N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 280248
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS...
...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 97.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
the depression. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches will likely be
required for portions of the coast of southern Mexico Saturday
morning.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 97.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through early Saturday,
followed by a slow turn to the north later this weekend and then a
slightly faster northeastward motion on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to approach the coast
of southern Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm early Saturday and a
hurricane on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression One-E is expected produce heavy
rains over portions of the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca,
Chiapas, and eastern Guerrero through Tuesday night. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible over
portions of the southern Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 280247
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022
0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY
MORNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 97.9W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 97.9W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 97.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.8N 98.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.2N 98.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.7N 98.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.7N 98.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 17.2N 95.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 97.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>