Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EARL-22
in Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bermuda, Anguilla, Virgin Islands British, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe

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Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 102040
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Earl has completed extratropical
transition, with well-developed frontal features and a central core
that is void of deep convection. While recent scatterometer
overpasses did not sample the strongest winds, it showed that Earl
remains both large and powerful as an extratropical low. So, the
initial intensity is set at 75 kt at this time. The global models
are in good agreement that the system should gradually weaken
during the forecast period, with the maximum winds dropping below
hurricane force between 12-24 h. The intensity forecast follows
the trend of the intensity guidance and has some minor adjustments
from the previous forecast.

Earl has slowed its forward speed considerably since the last
advisory, with the motion now 025/9 kt. A slow movement toward the
northeast is expected during the next 36 h as the system merges
with a mid-latitude trough. After that, the post-tropical cyclone
is expected to move eastward through 96 h, followed by an
east-northeastward motion. The track guidance has shifted
southward between 36-72 h, and the new forecast track is adjusted
southward during that time as well. The forecast slow motion,
along with Earl's large wind field, will cause strong winds over
the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland from this afternoon through
Sunday. For additional information on impacts in Newfoundland,
please monitor forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada.

The is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Earl. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland this afternoon through Sunday.

2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the
next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 43.6N 52.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 11/0600Z 44.3N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/1800Z 44.8N 51.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0600Z 45.0N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1800Z 44.9N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/0600Z 44.7N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 44.7N 44.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z 45.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z 47.5N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 102040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

...EARL BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.6N 52.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl
was located near latitude 43.6 North, longitude 52.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 10
mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northeast at a slow forward speed
is expected tonight. Earl is expected to be southeast of
Newfoundland Sunday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Earl's winds are likely
to fall below hurricane force tonight or early Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485
miles (780 km). A Canadian automated station near Cape Race
recently reported a wind gust of 68 mph (109 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Strong winds are expected across the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland this afternoon through Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in
Canada during the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 102038
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.6N 52.6W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
50 KT.......180NE 180SE 110SW 180NW.
34 KT.......300NE 360SE 420SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 700SE 700SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.6N 52.6W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 52.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 44.3N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 160NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 330SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 44.8N 51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 45.0N 50.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 250SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 44.9N 49.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 180SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.7N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 44.7N 44.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 100SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 45.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 47.5N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.6N 52.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 101611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.09.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 49.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2022 0 25.1N 49.4W 1016 25
0000UTC 11.09.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 42.2N 53.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2022 0 42.2N 53.0W 946 72
0000UTC 11.09.2022 12 43.8N 52.3W 963 55
1200UTC 11.09.2022 24 43.9N 51.8W 972 42
0000UTC 12.09.2022 36 44.4N 51.4W 978 38
1200UTC 12.09.2022 48 43.9N 51.1W 981 35
0000UTC 13.09.2022 60 43.1N 49.0W 987 34
1200UTC 13.09.2022 72 43.3N 44.8W 990 36
0000UTC 14.09.2022 84 44.5N 42.0W 992 29
1200UTC 14.09.2022 96 45.1N 40.4W 995 29
0000UTC 15.09.2022 108 45.6N 38.9W 998 26
1200UTC 15.09.2022 120 46.9N 37.0W 1000 24
0000UTC 16.09.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.0N 105.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2022 144 14.0N 105.5W 1006 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101610

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 101436
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

Earl continues to undergo extratropical transition as it merges
with the mid-latitude trough seen in GOES-16 airmass imagery near
and to the west of the hurricane. The central convection is
starting to shear away from the low-level center and cold-air clouds
are wrapping around the south side of the circulation. The initial
intensity is reduced to 80 kt based on a combination of subjective
and objective Dvorak intensity estimates.

Earl should complete extratropical transition during the next 6 h
or so, with the system maintaining hurricane-force winds during
this time. After that, the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken
during the next 72 h as it moves over the open North Atlantic. The
new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward during the first
48 h to match the trend of the intensity guidance, and then is
similar to the previous forecast.

Earl has turned a little to the left and slowed its forward motion
since the last advisory, with the initial motion now 025/25 kt. As
Earl merges with the mid-latitude trough, an additional
significant decease in forward speed is expected during the next 12
h, followed by a slow northeastward motion that should continue
through Sunday night. Subsequently, Earl should be steered
generally eastward by the mid-latitude westerlies. The new
forecast track has been shifted to the northwest of the previous
track during the first 36 h and is close to the previous track
thereafter. The northwestward shift of the track, along with
Earl's large wind field, is expected to lead to strong winds
occurring over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland beginning this
afternoon and continuing through Sunday. For additional information
on impacts in Newfoundland, please monitor forecasts and warnings
from Environment Canada.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland beginning this afternoon and continuing through Sunday,
after Earl becomes a post-tropical low.

2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the
next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 42.9N 53.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 44.4N 51.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/1200Z 45.0N 51.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0000Z 45.2N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1200Z 45.4N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/0000Z 45.3N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z 45.3N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z 45.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z 46.5N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101435
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

...EARL FORECAST TO BECOME A EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.9N 53.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 42.9 North, longitude 53.0 West. Earl is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). An additional
decrease in forward speed is expected today, with Earl moving
slowly northeastward to the southeast of Newfoundland tonight
through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Earl is forecast to become a powerful
hurricane-force extratropical low this afternoon. After that,
weakening is expected, and Earl's winds are likely to fall below
hurricane force tonight or early Sunday.

Earl is a large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Strong winds are expected across the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland this afternoon through Sunday, after Earl becomes a
post-tropical low.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in
Canada during the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 101434
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 53.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT.......110NE 180SE 110SW 180NW.
34 KT.......300NE 360SE 350SW 320NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 570SE 630SW 430NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 53.0W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 53.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.4N 51.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 180NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 45.0N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 45.2N 50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 250SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 45.4N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 45.3N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.3N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 100SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 45.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 46.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.9N 53.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 100841
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

Earl is in the first stages of extratropical transition. The
convective cloud pattern is becoming stretched east to west, and
the eye is rapidly losing definition while an extensive cirrus
shield radiates northward away from the hurricane. Scatterometer
data from last evening showed that Earl's wind field continues to
expand and was beginning to merge with the strong winds behind an
approaching frontal boundary. Maximum winds are still estimated to
be 90 kt based on a blend of Dvorak data-T and Current Intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB, as well as the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The hurricane continues to accelerate just ahead of a shortwave
trough and is estimated to be moving rapidly northeastward (035
degrees) at 30 kt. However, Earl will be merging with this trough
within the next 6 to 12 hours, which will cause it to slam on the
brakes southeast of Newfoundland, slowing to speeds of 5 kt or less
beginning tonight and continuing through Monday. After Monday, a
less amplified upper-level pattern should cause the system to turn
eastward and pick up some speed. The updated NHC track forecast
has been shifted a bit northwestward during the first couple of
days of the forecast and lies within the tightly packed guidance
envelope. The NHC prediction then comes back in line with
the previous forecast on days 3 through 5. The northwestward
shift of the track, along with Earl's large wind field, is expected
to lead to strong winds occurring over the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland beginning this afternoon and continuing through
Sunday. For additional information on impacts in Newfoundland,
please monitor forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada.

Global model fields show Earl's center migrating into the cold side
of the nearby frontal zone today, with extratropical transition
forecast to be complete this afternoon. This process, along with
Earl now crossing the tight sea surface temperature gradient north
of the Gulf Stream, is expected to induce a weakening trend, with
the cyclone's winds likely falling below hurricane force by
tonight. Continued weakening at a more gradual pace is anticipated
from Sunday onward into the middle of the week. The NHC intensity
forecast most closely follows the GFS and ECMWF solutions given
that Earl will soon be extratropical.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland beginning this afternoon and continuing through Sunday,
after Earl becomes a post-tropical low.

2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the
next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 41.2N 53.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 43.2N 52.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/0600Z 44.1N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1800Z 44.5N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0600Z 44.7N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1800Z 44.8N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0600Z 44.7N 46.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 44.9N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 45.3N 37.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100840
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

...EARL FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THIS AFTERNOON...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.2N 53.5W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 41.2 North, longitude 53.5 West. Earl is moving
rapidly toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A significant
reduction in forward speed is expected today, with Earl moving
slowly northeastward to the southeast of Newfoundland tonight
through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Earl is forecast to become a powerful hurricane-force
extratropical low this afternoon. Weakening is expected during the
next few days, and Earl's winds are likely to fall below hurricane
force tonight or early Sunday.

Earl's wind field is expanding. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Strong winds are expected across the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland this afternoon through Sunday, after Earl becomes a
post-tropical low.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in
Canada during the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 100840
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0900 UTC SAT SEP 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 53.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT.......110NE 180SE 110SW 180NW.
34 KT.......220NE 360SE 350SW 320NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 540SE 600SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 53.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 54.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 43.2N 52.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 180NW.
34 KT...270NE 360SE 330SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 44.1N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 44.5N 50.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 44.7N 50.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 210SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 44.8N 48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.7N 46.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 90SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 44.9N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 45.3N 37.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.2N 53.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 100240
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

Earl has maintained its rather large eye that is encircled by
cloud tops as cold as -70 degrees C this evening. Microwave
satellite imagery also shows that Earl still has a symmetric
inner core and there are no indications of transitioning into an
extratropical cyclone yet. Satellite Dvorak classifications from
SAB and TAFB were 5.0 and therefore, the initial intensity remains
at 90 kt.

The cyclone has increased in forward speed to the northeast at an
estimated 45/25 kt. This motion is expected to continue for another
12 hours or so before Earl merges with a mid-latitude trough located
just west of the storm. Upon merging, Earl is expected to slow down
off the coast of Newfoundland in about 24 hours for a couple of days
while turning eastward. In about 3 days, Earl is likely to
accelerate eastward over the North Atlantic. The official track
forecast is slightly faster and a little south of the previous
prediction and close to the corrected model consensus aids.

As stated earlier, there are no signs of Earl beginning its
extratropical transition yet. However, statistical model guidance
suggests the vertical wind shear will rapidly increase over the
hurricane shortly and induce weakening. The tropical-storm-force
winds are expected to expand as Earl becomes a post-tropical cyclone
over the next day or so. This will cause it to continue to produce
large waves and swell in a vast area of the western Atlantic even
as Earl weakens. There is a high risk of rip current conditions
across the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland
through the weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East
Coast and are beginning to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 38.1N 55.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 41.2N 53.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 43.1N 51.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1200Z 43.8N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0000Z 44.2N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1200Z 44.5N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z 44.7N 46.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 45.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z 46.0N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100239
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

...EARL GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH SEAS...
...STORM ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 55.9W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 55.9 West. Earl is moving toward
the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through tomorrow. Earl is then forecast
to slow down considerably Saturday night through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible overnight.
Earl is expected to complete its transition to a powerful
hurricane-force extratropical low on Saturday and then steadily
weaken through early Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Gusty winds are expected across the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland over the weekend after Earl becomes a post-tropical
low.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and portions
of the U.S. East Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland tonight and on Saturday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 100239
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 55.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT.......200NE 240SE 200SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 400SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 55.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 41.2N 53.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 280SE 240SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.1N 51.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...280NE 320SE 280SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.8N 50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...290NE 255SE 270SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 44.2N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 250SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 44.5N 48.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 44.7N 46.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 110SE 170SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 45.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 46.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 55.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 092043
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

Earl's large (and at times ragged) eye and surrounding convection
were finally organized enough at 1800 UTC to get consensus Dvorak
classifications of 5.0 from TAFB and SAB, an indication that the
hurricane has strengthened slightly with an estimated intensity of
90 kt. Even then, a mid-latitude frontal feature is quickly
approaching from the northwest, a sign that Earl isn't likely to
last much longer as a relatively symmetric hurricane. In fact,
since 18Z, Earl's eye has already become partially obscured by
clouds once again.

The hurricane continues to accelerate toward the northeast, and is
forecast to accelerate further during the next 12 h ahead of the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough. Earl is forecast to merge with
this feature and slow abruptly in about 36 to 48 h. A slightly
faster eastward motion is forecast around day 4-5. The track model
guidance remains tightly packed around the multi-model consensus,
which is the basis of the NHC forecast once again. Only small
modifications were made to the track forecast with this advisory.

Earl has a few more hours before it begins extratropical transition
and some very short-term further intensification can't be completely
ruled out. However, by tomorrow morning Earl should begin to
steadily weaken as it becomes post-tropical. As noted before, the
wind field of Earl will expand even as its peak winds begin to
decrease, which will cause it to continue to produce large waves and
swell across a large portion of the western Atlantic. This will
contribute to a high risk of rip currents across the U.S. East
Coast, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland through the weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East
Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight
and on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 35.9N 58.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 39.0N 55.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 42.3N 53.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0600Z 43.4N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1800Z 43.8N 51.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0600Z 44.4N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z 44.7N 48.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 45.1N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 46.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 092042
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

...LARGE EARL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT ACROSS
THE WEST ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 58.7W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the large ragged eye of Hurricane Earl
was located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 58.7 West. Earl is
accelerating toward the northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is anticipated tonight. Earl is then forecast
to slow down considerably Saturday night through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible this evening.
Earl is expected to complete its transition to a powerful
hurricane-force extratropical low on Saturday and then steadily
weaken through early Monday.

Earl is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Gusty winds are expected across the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland over the weekend after Earl becomes a post-tropical
low.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and portions
of the U.S. East Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland tonight and on Saturday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 092042
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 58.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT.......200NE 240SE 200SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 300SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 58.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 39.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 300SE 250SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.3N 53.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...280NE 320SE 280SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 43.4N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...290NE 255SE 270SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 43.8N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 250SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 44.4N 50.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 44.7N 48.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 110SE 170SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 45.1N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 46.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 58.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 091435
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

During the past six hours, Earl's satellite appearance has
oscillated between periods of gaining symmetry and becoming more
ragged, with the latter winning out right now. In fact, Earl's
previously clear eye has become partially obscured by clouds during
the last hour or two. Satellite-based intensity estimates range from
70-100 kt, but since those estimates generally haven't changed much
since the last advisory, the hurricane's intensity is held at 85 kt
for now.

Whether Earl's recent satellite degradation is another temporary
hiccup or the start of a weakening trend as it undergoes
extratropical transition over the next 24 h isn't yet clear, but
either way the intensity guidance is now in good agreement that
little or no intensification is expected going forward. Dynamical
models including the GFS and ECMWF are also in very good agreement
that Earl will become post-tropical by Saturday afternoon or
evening. This transition should coincide with the cyclone's maximum
winds to decreasing sharply while the extent of its tropical storm
or gale-force winds expands. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous advisory, but is
still on the high end of the narrow intensity guidance envelope
through 72 h. The official intensity forecast is based heavily on
the consensus after that.

Earl continues to accelerate toward the northeast ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough off the New England and Atlantic Canada
coasts. This should cause Earl to accelerate further today and
tonight before it merges with the trough and slows to a relative
crawl southeast of Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone in about
48 h. Around day 4-5, the broader mid-latitude system should move
faster eastward, bringing extratropical Earl with it. Only minor
adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East
Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight
and on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 34.2N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 41.0N 54.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 43.5N 52.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1200Z 44.4N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 45.1N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 45.5N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 45.5N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 46.0N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 091434
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 61.0W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT.......100NE 110SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 200SE 170SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 61.0W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 61.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 210SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 41.0N 54.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 320SE 250SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.5N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 90SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 290SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.4N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 45.1N 50.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 230SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 45.5N 49.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 200SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 45.5N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 46.0N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 61.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 091434
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

...EARL FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY...
...RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 61.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 61.0 West. Earl is moving toward
the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h) and is forecast to accelerate
further toward the northeast today. Earl is then forecast to slow
down considerably Saturday night through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible today. Earl is
expected to complete its transition to a powerful hurricane-force
extratropical low on Saturday and then steadily weaken through
early Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Gusty winds are expected across the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland over the weekend after Earl becomes a post-tropical
low.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and portions
of the U.S. East Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland tonight and on Saturday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 091148
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 AM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

...EARL HEADING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 61.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next hour or so.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 61.7 West. Earl is moving toward
the northeast near 18 mph (29 km/h). A faster northeastward motion
is expected today and tonight. Earl is then forecast to slow down
considerably Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, Earl
will continue to move northeastward away from Bermuda today and will
move to the southeast of Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through tonight. Earl is
expected to complete its transition to a powerful hurricane-force
extratropical low on Saturday and then gradually weaken through
early Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda for the
next hour or so. Gusty winds are expected across the Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland over the weekend after Earl becomes a
post-tropical low.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm) across Bermuda through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and portions
of the U.S. East Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland tonight and on Saturday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 090847
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

Radar data from Bermuda and conventional satellite images show that
Earl's structure has improved a bit overnight with the eye becoming
better defined and the overall cloud envelope looking more
symmetric. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured
a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 97 kt and SFMR winds as high as
77 kt, with the central pressure down slightly to 963 mb. Based on
the typical reduction of the flight-level winds, and accounting for
undersampling of the surface winds, Earl's initial intensity is
raised back to 85 kt. Reconnaissance and scatterometer data also
indicate that Earl's wind field has continued to expand.

Earl is accelerating toward the north-northeast (030 degrees at 15
kt) ahead of a shortwave trough approaching from the west near the
New England coast. The hurricane is forecast to turn northeastward
today and continue accelerating to speeds of 25-30 kt within 24
hours. After that time, however, Earl will merge with the
aforementioned trough, slowing down considerably to speeds of around
5 kt to the southeast of Newfoundland in 60-72 hours. By days 4 and
5, the system should then move a little bit faster toward the east,
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is
in generally good agreement for much of the 5-day forecast period,
and no significant changes were made to the updated NHC track
forecast.

Earl will remain over warm waters for another 24 hours or so, and
the deep-layer shear should be low to moderate during the next 6 to
12 hours. As a result, some additional strengthening is anticipated
through tonight, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the IVCN
consensus during that period. A few models, including SHIPS, LGEM,
and HCCA, still bring Earl to major hurricane strength in 24 hours,
but given that the cyclone will be starting to undergo extratropical
transition by then, that scenario is becoming increasingly unlikely
(although not impossible). Global model fields indicate that Earl
should complete the transition to a powerful extratropical low by 36
hours and then gradually weaken through the remainder of the
forecast period. During the extratropical phase, the NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the GFS solution.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to diminish on Bermuda
later this morning.

2. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East
Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight
and on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 32.7N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 35.0N 59.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 39.2N 55.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 42.7N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0600Z 44.1N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/1800Z 44.9N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z 45.5N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z 45.4N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 46.0N 40.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 090847
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

...EARL RE-INTENSIFIES A BIT WHILE PULLING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 62.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 62.4 West. Earl is moving
faster toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an additional increase in forward speed
is expected today and tonight. Earl is then forecast to slow down
considerably Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track,
Earl will continue to move northeastward away from Bermuda today
and will move to the southeast of Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased again to near 100
mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast through tonight. Earl is expected to complete its
transition to a powerful hurricane-force extratropical low on
Saturday and then gradually weaken through early Monday.

Earl's wind field continues to grow in size. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft reconnaissance data
is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda for the
next few hours. Gusty winds are expected across the Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland over the weekend after Earl becomes a
post-tropical low.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm) across Bermuda through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and portions
of the U.S. East Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland tonight and on Saturday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 090845
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 62.4W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT.......100NE 110SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 290SE 270SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 62.4W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 63.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.0N 59.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 190SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 39.2N 55.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 290SE 250SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.7N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 330SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 44.1N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 44.9N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 45.5N 49.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 210SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 45.4N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 46.0N 40.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 62.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 090551
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
200 AM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

...CENTER OF EARL MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
DAYBREAK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 63.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next several hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 31.8
North, longitude 63.3 West. Earl is moving toward the
north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today.
On the forecast track, the center of Earl will move away from
Bermuda through the morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is still possible through this evening or
tonight. Thereafter, some weakening and a transition into a
powerful extratropical cyclone is forecast on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft
is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through
daybreak.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm) across Bermuda through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and portions
of the U.S. East Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland tonight and on Saturday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 090254
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

The satellite and airborne radar presentation of Earl has continued
to degrade this evening. The eye has expanded to 50 n mi wide,
become more ragged in appearance, and is open to the south. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system has only found
peak flight-level winds of 89 kt and surface wind measurements of 75
kt. The minimum central pressure has also risen to a reported 964
mb. Based on these data and accounting for potential undersampling
of the wind field, the initial intensity has been lowered to 80 kt
on this advisory cycle.

The hurricane is moving north-northeastward at 13 kt. The forward
motion is expected to increase as Earl is caught up in the
southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the east, and a
digging mid-latitude trough to the northwest. A mid-level trough
moving off the eastern seaboard is forecast to capture the storm and
slow Earl's motion off the Canadian coast. There is some
uncertainty in timing of this interaction which is leading to a
larger spread in model track guidance in the 60-96 h forecast
range.

Statistical model guidance insists that Earl has another day or so
of conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions in which to
strengthen. However, the recent degradation in structural
organization of the hurricane may be difficult to overcome in a
short period of time. The peak intensity of the official forecast
has been lowered to 100 kt at 24 hours. Beyond a day, the vertical
wind shear is predicted to increase dramatically and induce rapid
weakening, and extratropical transition is likely to occur within 48
hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island tonight into
tomorrow morning.

2. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and are expected
to reach the U.S. East Coast tonight. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 31.3N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 33.3N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 36.9N 57.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 40.7N 53.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 43.3N 51.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/1200Z 44.2N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0000Z 45.0N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 45.8N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 46.5N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 090252
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE GUSTS ON
BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 63.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Hurricane Watch
for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case overnight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 63.7 West. Earl is moving toward
the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and an increase in
forward speed is expected tonight, with a turn toward the northeast
tomorrow.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.
Re-strengthening is still possible, and Earl could become a major
hurricane by tomorrow. Thereafter, some weakening and a
transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone is forecast on
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda recently
reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph
(80 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA plane is 964 mb
(28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda overnight.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and are
expected to reach the U.S. east coast tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 090251
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 63.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 63.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 64.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.3N 61.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 36.9N 57.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 210SE 180SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.7N 53.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 280SE 230SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.3N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.2N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...260NE 250SE 250SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 45.0N 49.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 185SE 220SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 45.8N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 46.5N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 63.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 082357
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 64.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...170 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case this evening.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case later
today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 64.3 West. Earl is moving toward
the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h),and an increase in
forward speed is expected tonight, with a turn toward the northeast
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated be to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is still possible and Earl could
become a major hurricane by tomorrow. Thereafter, some weakening and
transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone is forecast on
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to
185 miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure measured by the NOAA Hurricane
Hunters is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda
overnight.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are
expected to reach the U.S. east coast tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 082059
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

Earl's intensification trend from last night took an unexpected halt
this morning, which was unusual given the reduction in vertical wind
shear. While an SSMIS pass at 1056 UTC showed a closed mid-level
eyewall, a more recent AMSR2 pass at 1717 UTC indicated that Earl
likely entrained some dry air that degraded the mid-level eyewall
structure, with a large cyclonic spiral opening to the west that
matched conventional satellite imagery at the time. The Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft has been sampling the hurricane this
afternoon, finding a minimum central pressure of 961 mb, but similar
to this morning, only found 700 mb flight level winds of 93 kt
(which reduces to 83 kt) and peak SFMR winds even lower at 64 kt.
Given these lastest in-situ observations, the initial intensity is
adjusted to 85 kt for this advisory. The aircraft observations, in
combination with ASCAT data, also indicate that Earl wind field is
growing larger, with 34-kt and 50-kt radii expanding in the
southeastern quadrant.

Earl is beginning to accelerate to the north-northeast, with
aircraft fixes indicating an estimated motion of 030/13 kt. Further
acceleration and a more northeastward turn is anticipated tonight
and tomorrow as Earl is caught up in the southwesterly flow between
a mid-level ridge to the east, and a digging mid-latitude trough to
the northwest. The guidance this cycle is very tightly clustered
upon the previous forecast track in over the next 24 hours, and very
few changes were made during this period for the latest NHC track.
On this path, Earl should make its closest approach about 75-100 n
mi southeast of Bermuda at around 0600 UTC. The same trough
mentioned above is then expected to capture Earl in 48-60 hours,
resulting in substantial slowdown in Earl's motion as the two
features phase together. This is the time period where the guidance
continues to exhibit a lot of along-track spread, related to the
degree of trough interaction, though the guidance this cycle has
shifted towards a stronger phasing solution, likely resulting in a
additional slowdown. The latest track forecast is not quite as slow
or far east as the latest GFS or ECMWF solutions, so further
adjustments may be needed if these trends continue.

Deep-layer (200-850 mb) vertical wind shear over Earl is now quite
low, under 10 knots per the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS. However, the
structural degradation in Earl's inner core today has thrown a
monkey wrench in the anticipated intensification that was expected
to occur today. In fact, while the pressure has still been slowly
decreasing, it seems to have resulted in the wind field growing more
than strengthening the maximum sustained winds. While it is likely
that Earl will be able to mix out the earlier dry-air entrainment
near the core, it has shortened the window of favorable conditions
for intensification before the shear begins to rapidly increase
again in 36 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast has been reduced a
bit this cycle, now only showing a 105 kt peak in 24 hours, which is
now under the HCCA and LGEM guidance and closer to the ICVN
consensus aid. After 36 hours, increasing baroclinicity will lead to
a rapid increase in vertical wind shear, and extratropical
transition will likely be underway (likely a warm-seclusion-type
event), and be complete by 48 hours. The powerful extratropical low
is then forecast to weaken steadily, in agreement with the intensity
consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island tonight into
tomorrow morning. Hurricane-force winds are possible on Bermuda
tonight if Earl's track shifts farther west than currently
forecast.

2. Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are
expected to reach the U.S. East Coast tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 30.3N 64.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 32.1N 62.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 35.2N 59.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 39.2N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 42.6N 51.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0600Z 44.0N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1800Z 45.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1800Z 45.8N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 46.0N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 082055
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

...EARL GROWING LARGER BUT NOT YET STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 64.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case this evening.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case later
today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 64.4 West. Earl is moving toward
the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with further acceleration tonight. A turn more
northeastward is expected tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds measured by the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening
is still anticipated and Earl could become a major hurricane by
tomorrow. Thereafter, some weakening and transition into a powerful
extratropical cyclone is forecast on Saturday.

Earl is growing larger, with Hurricane-force winds extending outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extending outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda
overnight.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are
expected to reach the U.S. east coast tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 082054
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
2100 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 64.4W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 64.4W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 64.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.1N 62.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.2N 59.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 210SE 180SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 39.2N 55.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 280SE 230SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.6N 51.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 44.0N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...260NE 250SE 250SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 185SE 220SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 45.8N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 46.0N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 64.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 081753
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
200 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

...EARL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH 105 MPH WINDS...
...NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 64.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case this evening.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case later
today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 64.9 West. Earl is moving toward
the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed followed by a
turn to the northeast tonight and tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and Earl could become a major hurricane later today. The
hurricane is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical low by
Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this afternoon or evening. Hurricane conditions are possible on
Bermuda this evening.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and
are expected to reach the U.S. east coast later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 081459
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

The convective structure of Earl this morning is interesting, with a
large convective band with cloud tops below -70 C completing one
full cyclonic orbit around the hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters
earlier indicated that the central pressure had fallen from last
night, with the final reading at 965 mb. However, the 700 mb flight
level, SFMR, and tail Doppler radar winds have yet to respond to the
continued falling pressure. Therefore, the wind speed this advisory
will be held at 90 kt. Of note, the aircraft mission is reporting
that Earl has a fairly large closed eye , with an estimated
diameter of 50 n mi.

Based on the last few center fixes, Earl is starting to make the
turn to the north-northeast as it gradually accelerates, estimated
at 030/11 kt. A shortwave trough in the process of moving offshore
of the Eastern U.S. coastline and this feature, in combination with
mid-level ridging to the east of Earl, is expected to cause Earl to
bend further eastward as the flow accelerates. There have been very
few changes made to the NHC forecast track over the first 24-48
hours, with Earl expected to pass 75-100 n mi to the southeast of
Bermuda tonight into tomorrow morning. Shortly after 48 hours, Earl
will be captured by the digging shortwave trough with model guidance
indicating it will undergo a warm-seclusion-type extratropical
transition. This process will also likely result in a substantial
slow-down in the forward motion between 48-72 hours, and this
portion of the track forecast has the largest along-track spread,
related to the degree of phasing between Earl and this trough.
Thereafter, their combination should begin to move eastward into the
Atlantic Maritimes by the end of the forecast period, opting to
favor a blend between the GFS and ECMWF track solutions.

Per the latest SHIPS guidance, vertical wind shear over Earl is now
under 10 kt and is forecast to remain that way for the next 24 hours
as Earl traverses over 29 C sea-surface temperatures. Thus, steady
intensification is expected, with the assumption that the current
core structure of Earl fully consolidates and takes advantage of
this favorable environment. The peak intensity of 115 kt is still
under the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. After 36 hours, Earl will
begin to undergo extratropical transition as the trough interaction
introduces substantial baroclinicity as vertical wind shear rapidly
increases. Earl is expected to transition into a powerful
hurricane-force extratropical low sometime between 48-60 hours, with
this low filling rather quickly thereafter, in good agreement with
the intensity consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island this
afternoon through early Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds are
possible on Bermuda this evening or tonight if Earl's track shifts
farther west than is currently forecast.

2. Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are
expected to reach the U.S. East Coast later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 29.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 30.7N 64.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 33.5N 61.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 40.9N 53.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 43.6N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z 44.9N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 46.1N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 47.1N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 081455
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 65.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 65.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 65.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.7N 64.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 55SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N 61.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.9N 53.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 280SE 230SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.6N 49.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 290SE 260SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.9N 48.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 220SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 46.1N 46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 47.1N 40.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 65.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 081455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

...EARL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 65.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case this evening.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case later
today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 65.0 West. Earl is moving toward
the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane
later today. The hurricane is forecast to become a powerful
post-tropical low by Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The minimum central pressure from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
reconnaissance data is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this afternoon or evening. Hurricane conditions are possible on
Bermuda this evening.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and
are expected to reach the U.S. east coast later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 081159
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

...EARL MOVING A BIT FASTER JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 65.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case this evening.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case later
today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 65.3 West. Earl is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (16 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with a further increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the
southeast of Bermuda this evening and tonight.

Data from the current NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission so far suggests
that maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane
later today. The hurricane is forecast to become a powerful
post-tropical low on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
reconnaissance data is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this afternoon or evening. Hurricane conditions are possible on
Bermuda this evening.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and
are expected to reach the U.S. east coast later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 080850
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

Earl has developed a 20-30 n mi wide eye in infrared satellite
imagery, although a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight
indicates that the circulation is still tilted toward the east with
height due to continued moderate shear. That said, this particular
flight measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 97 kt and SFMR
winds as high as 82 kt, while the central pressure dropped to 969
mb. Recent research on SFMR measurements from the NOAA Hurricane
Research Division and the University of Miami has shown that the
SFMR undersampling for a hurricane of Earl's size is typically
about 10 percent, which would suggest that the maximum winds are up
to around 90 kt. This estimate also more closely aligns to the
107-kt flight-level wind measured by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
flight last evening.

The reconnaissance mission found Earl's low-level center to be
located just a bit to the west of the previous forecast track, and
it's still moving toward the north (005 degrees) at 8 kt. With a
shortwave trough now moving off the New England and Mid-Atlantic
coasts, Earl is expected to turn north-northeastward and begin
accelerating later today, with its center forecast to pass
50-100 n mi to the southeast of Bermuda during the next 12 to 24
hours. Earl should then turn northeastward in about 36 hours and
reach its fastest forward speed in about 48 hours. Soon thereafter,
Earl is forecast to become embedded within the aforementioned
trough, which will cause it to slow down considerably and possibly
even meander to the southeast of Newfoundland in 3 to 4 days. The
new NHC track prediction is shifted a bit westward during the first
48 hours, mainly to account for the recent movement of Earl's
center. The forecast is a bit north of and slower than the previous
forecast on days 3 through 5, shifted toward the GFS, ECMWF, and
multi-model consensus aids.

Deep-layer shear is expected to decrease to less than 10 kt in just
a few hours. Along with waters remaining at or above 29 degrees
Celsius for the next 36 hours, the more conducive atmospheric
conditions are expected to cause Earl to strengthen further,
reaching major hurricane intensity later today, and likely peaking
in strength in 36-48 hours. Earl will start to become involved
with a frontal boundary and deep-layer trough in about 48 hours,
and its transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone is now
expected to be complete to the southeast of Newfoundland by 60
hours. The extratropical low is expected to weaken rather quickly,
with its winds falling below hurricane force between days 3 and 4.
The NHC intensity prediction closely follows the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids for much of the 5-day forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island this
afternoon through early Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds are
possible on Bermuda this evening or tonight if Earl's track shifts
farther west than is currently forecast.

2. Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are
expected to reach the U.S. East Coast later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 28.2N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 29.6N 64.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 32.0N 63.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 35.1N 59.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 39.1N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 42.4N 51.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z 44.3N 49.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 45.4N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 46.7N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 080849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 65.4W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case this evening.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case later
today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 65.4 West. Earl is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the
southeast of Bermuda this evening and tonight.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter missions
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph
(165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days, and Earl is expected to become a
major hurricane later today. The hurricane is forecast to become a
powerful post-tropical low on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
data is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this afternoon or evening. Hurricane conditions are possible on
Bermuda this evening.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and
are expected to reach the U.S. east coast later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 080849
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0900 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 65.4W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 65.4W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 65.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.6N 64.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.1N 59.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 39.1N 55.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 230SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.4N 51.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 290SE 260SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 44.3N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 230SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 45.4N 47.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 46.7N 41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 65.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 080546
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
200 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EARL'S WIND FIELD
IS GROWING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 65.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 05 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case beginning this evening.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
beginning later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
27.7 North, longitude 65.5 West. Earl is moving toward the north
near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is
expected later today followed by a turn to the northeast tonight
with a gradual increase in forward speed.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Earl
is expected to become a major hurricane later today or tonight.

Earl's wind field is growing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this afternoon or evening. Hurricane conditions are possible on
Bermuda this evening or tonight.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are beginning to reach Bermuda and
are expected to reach the U.S. east coast later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 080302 CCA
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0300 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CORRECTED 12 FT SEA RADII

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 65.5W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 65.5W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 65.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.6N 65.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.3N 61.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 36.6N 57.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 75SE 55SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.2N 53.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 230SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 42.9N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 230SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 45.0N 44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 46.4N 39.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 65.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 080252
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

Earl has resumed intensifying this evening. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reported a maximum flight-level wind of 107 kt (which
reduces to an intensity of about 95 kt), and the central pressure
has fallen to 970 mb. Both SFMR and dropsonde data support surface
winds of 80 kt. Onboard radar has also confirmed a rather large eye
of almost 60 miles (90 km) and a fairly symmetric wind field. The
initial intensity is increased to 85 kt as a blend of all available
aircraft data, and considering the drop in pressure.

Aircraft center fixes confirm that Earl is still moving northward at
about 8 kt. This motion is expected to gradually turn
north-northeastward and northeastward and accelerate as Earl moves
between a mid-level ridge to the southeast, and a digging
mid-latitude trough to the northwest in the next couple of days.
The trough is forecast to capture Earl, however there is some
uncertainty in the model guidance to the timing of this interaction
resulting in a larger spread in the along-track positions beyond 72
hours. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous
forecast and close to the model consensus aids.

The apparent decrease in deep-layer vertical wind shear has likely
allowed Earl to strengthen. Global model guidance suggests the
shear will continue to abate over the next 36 hours and with
atmospheric conditions remaining conducive, further intensification
is expected. The NHC intensity forecast now shows a quicker rate of
strengthening to a peak of 115 kt at 36 hours. Earl is expected to
undergo extra-tropical transition in a few days when it moves to
higher latitudes and interacts with an upper-level trough.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning late Thursday and
continuing through Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds are
possible on Bermuda late Thursday or Thursday night if Earl's track
shifts farther west than is currently forecast.

2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. East Coast shortly thereafter. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 27.2N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 28.6N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 33.3N 61.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 36.6N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 40.2N 53.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 42.9N 49.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0000Z 45.0N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0000Z 46.4N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 080250
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

...EARL INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 65.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case beginning Thursday afternoon
into Friday morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 65.5 West. Earl is moving toward
the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected overnight followed by a turn to the northeast during the
day on Thursday with a gradual increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Earl is expected to become a major
hurricane tomorrow.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
late Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda
beginning late Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda
overnight and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 080248
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0300 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 65.5W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 420SE 420SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 65.5W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 65.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.6N 65.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.3N 61.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 36.6N 57.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 75SE 55SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.2N 53.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 230SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 42.9N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 230SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 45.0N 44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 46.4N 39.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 65.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 072354
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EARL IS STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 65.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case beginning Thursday afternoon
into Friday morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 65.5 West. Earl is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected overnight followed by a turn to the northeast during the
day on Thursday with a gradual increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Earl is expected to become a major
hurricane tomorrow.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 971 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda
beginning Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 072100
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

The structure of Earl is gradually improving, with deep convective
cold tops rotating around the core with an occasional warm spot
becoming evident on both infrared and visible satellite imagery. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission has been flying through
Earl this afternoon, and they found a peak 700 mb flight level wind
of 90 kt in the SE quadrant of the hurricane. However, SFMR winds
have been lower than earlier observed in the NOAA P-3 mission and
the central pressure has stabilized somewhere in the 974-976 mb
range. These observations support keeping the intensity at 75 kt for
this advisory, which is also in agreement with the 1800 UTC Dvorak
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB.

Center fixes from the aircraft show that Earl continues to move east
of due north estimated at 010/7 kt, and may be in the initial stages
of making a more rightward turn. The track reasoning has not changed
for the next couple of days, where Earl is expected to gradually
turn to the northeast and accelerate as it is caught in between a
mid-level ridge to the southeast, and a digging mid-latitude trough
to the northwest. The aforementioned trough is forecast to
ultimately capture Earl sometime in the 60-96 hour period, though
timing differences between the guidance are driving significant
along track spread in the forecast by that time. The latest NHC
track forecast was largely unchanged in the short-term, remaining
close to the tightly clustered guidance, though was shifted a bit
east compared to the prior cycle after Earl becomes extra-tropical.

The deep-layer vertical wind shear is beginning to decrease over
Earl, now under 20-kt in both GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance.
This shear is forecast to decrease further tonight and be 10 kt or
under from 24-48 hours. Sea-surface temperatures are also expected
to remain at 29 C or warmer over this same time span. In terms of
the high-resolution regional hurricane model guidance, the most
recent HMON, experimental HAFS-S and HAFS-A, and COAMPS-TC all
explicitly show Earl becoming a Category 4 hurricane over the next
48-60h. The COAMPS-TC ensemble from the 00z cycle also indicated at
least 75 percent of its members becoming a Category 4 hurricane as
the hurricane passes by to the southeast of Bermuda. Finally, DTOPS
RI-probabilities from the latest SHIPS run indicate a greater than
50 percent chance of a 35 kt increase in intensity over the next 24
hours. While the latest intensity forecast will not go quite that
high, it does show a 40 kt increase in intensity in 48 hours still
making Earl a Category 4 hurricane. While it is relatively rare to
see such an intense hurricane at that latitude in the forecast
period, the guidance support, plus the favorable environment of Earl
being positioned in the right entrance region of a upper-level jet
streak ahead of the trough should provide both good dynamical
support on top of the favorable thermodynamic environment by the
warm SSTs. After 60 h, Earl will likely rapidly undergo
extra-tropical transition as an upper-level trough digs in and
captures Earl, increasing baroclinicity and removing the deep
convection as the storm moves poleward of the Gulf Stream.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning Thursday afternoon
and continuing through Friday morning. The Bermuda Weather Service
has also issued a Hurricane Watch for the island.

2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. East Coast shortly thereafter. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 26.5N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 27.8N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 29.7N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 32.0N 62.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 35.0N 59.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 38.6N 55.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 41.8N 50.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z 45.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 47.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 072059
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

...EARL POISED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 65.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
island of Bermuda

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case at some point Thursday
afternoon into Friday morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 65.5 West. Earl is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn towards the north-northeast
is expected overnight and then more to the northeast during the day
on Thursday as the system gradually accelerates.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane tomorrow.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area beginning Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 072058
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
2100 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
ISLAND OF BERMUDA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT SOME POINT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 65.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 65.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 65.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.8N 65.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.7N 64.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.0N 62.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.0N 59.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 75SE 55SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 38.6N 55.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 230SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.8N 50.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 230SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 45.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 47.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 65.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 071753
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
200 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

...EARL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 85 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 65.7W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 65.7 West. Earl is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a continued northward motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast and then northeast with an increase in forward speed
is expected to begin on Thursday and continue through early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to
pass to the southeast of Bermuda on Thursday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 071453
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

While it is evident that westerly vertical wind shear continues to
affect the overall satellite presentation of Earl, useful data
from the NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the
hurricane is holding its own and has even strengthened a bit. Part
of this resilience could be due to the fact that the low and
mid-level centers of Earl are now vertically stacked with the wind
field relatively symmetric per the most recent set of Tail Doppler
Radar from the aircraft. However, the westerly shear is still
affecting the inner-core structure of the system, with its large 40
n mi wide eye open in the southern semicircle. The highest flight-
level winds from this morning's mission was 82 kt at 700 mb with
SFMR at 75 kt. The initial intensity was increased to 75 kt at the
8am intermediate advisory and remains this value for this advisory.

Fixes from this morning indicate that Earl has been moving just east
of due north, with the motion estimated at 005/6 kt. The hurricane
is caught in between a mid-level ridge now centered to its
southeast, with a positively-tilted upper-level trough located to
the northwest. This synoptic setup should enable Earl to begin
recurving north-northeastward and then northeastward as it
accelerates over the next 24-48 hours. The track guidance remains
tightly clustered during the early portion of the forecast, with the
GFS and ECMWF tracks now nearly identical during this period. The
official track forecast was only adjusted a touch east of the prior
one during this period. However, as noted previously, there is
increasing model support that the upper-level trough will ultimately
phase with Earl after 72 hours, resulting in the cyclone slowing
down significantly and potentially turning more northward in days
4-5. The official track forecast during this period now shows a bit
more of a northward bend and further slowdown compared to the prior
track, favoring a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF forecast.

The persistent deep-layer westerly vertical wind shear that has been
impacting Earl the last several days is finally forecast to subside
later today, dropping below 10 kt in 24 hours. This decreasing
shear, in combination with very warm sea-surface temperatures,
favorable positioning in the right-entrance region of an upper-level
jet streak, and significant acceleration in the storm motion, is
likely to result in substantial strengthening of the surface wind
field and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a peak at 115
kt in 60-h, in good general agreement with the latest HCCA, yet
still under the LGEM intensity aid. After that, a significant
trough interaction is likely to rapidly increase baroclinicity, with
Earl forecast to become an extratropical-low as it phases with the
upper-level trough between days 3-4 in the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning Thursday afternoon
and continuing through Friday morning.

2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. East Coast shortly thereafter. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 25.7N 65.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 26.8N 65.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 28.5N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 30.4N 64.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 33.0N 61.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 36.4N 57.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 40.1N 53.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 45.0N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 47.0N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 071447
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

...EARL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN US COASTLINE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 65.7W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 65.7 West. Earl is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a continued northward motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast and then northeast with an increase in forward speed
is expected to begin on Thursday and continue through early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to
pass to the southeast of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Earl
is expected to become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters
is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 071443
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 65.7W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 65.7W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.5N 65.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.4N 64.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 36.4N 57.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 230SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.1N 53.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 230SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 45.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 47.0N 47.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 65.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 071153
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 65.8W
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 65.8 West. Earl is moving toward
the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a continued northward motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast and then northeast with an increase in forward speed
is expected to begin on Thursday and continue through early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to
pass to the southeast of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane late Thursday or
Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 070852
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

Strong westerly shear (analyzed to be around 30 kt) continues to
affect Earl, with the hurricane exhibiting an asymmetric convective
structure in infrared satellite imagery. A recent Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the central pressure has
fallen to 981 mb, however there's been no apparent change in the
maximum winds and the eyewall is open to the south and southeast.
The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 78 kt and SFMR
winds as high as 71 kt; therefore the maximum sustained winds are
still estimated to be 70 kt.

Earl has been moving slowly just west of due north, or 355/5 kt,
while sandwiched between a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic and high pressure over Florida. A trough over the eastern
United States is expected to move offshore during the next couple
of days, causing Earl to turn northeastward and accelerate through
day 3. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 3
days of the forecast, although many of the models have trended a
little slower during the northeastward turn. No cross-track
adjustments to the NHC forecast were needed during that period.
There has been a marked shift and increase in spread among the
track models on days 4 and 5, however, with the GFS, ECMWF, and
COAMPS-TC showing Earl merging with a deep-layer low and turning
northward or northwestward toward Newfoundland as an extratropical
low. For now, the updated NHC forecast shows Earl slowing down
considerably to the southeast of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5.

GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance show the strong shear currently
affecting Earl decreasing to moderate levels in about 12 hours, and
even to low levels in about 36 hours. Combined with very warm
waters and a possible positive trough interaction during the next
24 hours, Earl is forecast to strengthen and is likely to become a
major hurricane in the next 36 to 48 hours while passing to the
southeast of Bermuda. Weakening is expected to begin after day 3
due to colder waters and another increase in shear, and Earl is
forecast to become extratropical by day 4 while it interacts with
the aforementioned deep-layer low to the southeast of Atlantic
Canada.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning Thursday afternoon
and continuing through Friday morning.

2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 25.3N 65.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.4N 65.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 27.9N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 29.7N 64.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 31.8N 63.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 34.5N 60.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 37.9N 55.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 43.6N 48.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 45.3N 46.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070852
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

...EARL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 65.9W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 65.9 West. Earl is moving toward
the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slow northward motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast and then northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected to begin on Thursday and continue through early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to
pass to the southeast of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane late
Thursday or Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 070851
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0900 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 65.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 65.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.4N 65.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.9N 65.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.7N 64.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 31.8N 63.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 140SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.5N 60.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.9N 55.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 190SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 43.6N 48.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 45.3N 46.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 65.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070551
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
200 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING EARL...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 65.9W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
25.0 North, longitude 65.9 West. Earl is moving toward the north
near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today
with a gradual turn to the north-northeast on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the
southeast of Bermuda by Thursday evening.

Preliminary data from the reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and
Earl is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is
982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
on Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches or 25 to 50 mm across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 070256
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

Earl continues to be become better organized this evening. An
ongoing NOAA reconnaissance mission measured 700-mb flight-level
winds as high as 80 kt, which supports an intensity of around 70 kt.
There were some higher winds measured by the SFMR and dropsondes,
however, we prefer to remain on the conservative side given the
fluctuations Earl has been experiencing over the past 24 hours.
Radar images show the eyewall is still open to the south, and Earl
is likely is still experiencing the affects of strong shear.

The aircraft fixes indicate that Earl is moving northward at 6 kt.
A mid-level ridge over the hurricane is expected to continue
weakening while a trough moves off the coast of the eastern United
States. This trough is predicted to steer Earl to the northeast in
about a day or so and accelerate its forward motion poleward. Once
again, the track model guidance has shifted west slightly, and the
NHC track forecast has moved to the west and is closest to the
correct consensus model guidance.

Despite the model-analyzed strong westerly deep-layer shear, Earl
has intensified. This magnitude of shear is predicted to continue
for another day or so before weakening briefly in about two days for
a 24-hour period. Oceanic conditions under the hurricane are
expected to be conducive for further intensification for the next
few days as well. Therefore, the latest official forecast predicts
the hurricane will continue to intensify for the next 24 hours, with
a quicker rate of strengthening between 24 and 72 hours. Earl is
expected to make its extratropical transition by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
possibly spreading across the island on Thursday.

2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 24.8N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 25.8N 65.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 27.3N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 29.1N 65.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 31.1N 63.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 33.7N 61.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 42.9N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 44.9N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 070254
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0300 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 65.8W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 20SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 65.8W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.8N 65.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.3N 65.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.1N 65.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.1N 63.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.7N 61.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 190SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 42.9N 47.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 44.9N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070255
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

...EARL COULD PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ON BERMUDA
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 65.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located
near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 65.8 West. Earl is moving toward
the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue into tomorrow with a gradual turn to the north-northeast on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to
pass to the southeast of Bermuda by Thursday evening.

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Earl is
forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
on Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches or 25 to 50 mm across Bermuda through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070011 CCB
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

Corrected to show extent of hurricane-force winds

...EARL BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2022 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 65.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.4
North, longitude 65.8 West. Earl is moving toward the north near 6
mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue into tomorrow
with a gradual turn to the north-northeast on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the
southeast of Bermuda by Friday morning.

Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days and Earl is
forecast to become a major hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
on Thursday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070001 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

Corrected to show no changes in watches and warnings with this
advisory

...EARL BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2022 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 65.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.4
North, longitude 65.8 West. Earl is moving toward the north near 6
mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue into tomorrow
with a gradual turn to the north-northeast on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the
southeast of Bermuda by Friday morning.

Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days and Earl is
forecast to become a major hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
on Thursday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 062354
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

...EARL BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2022 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 65.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Island of Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.4
North, longitude 65.8 West. Earl is moving toward the north near 6
mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue into tomorrow
with a gradual turn to the north-northeast on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the
southeast of Bermuda by Friday morning.

Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days and Earl is
forecast to become a major hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
on Thursday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 062136 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

Corrected pressure in summary section

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EARL IS A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Island of Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. Earl is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue into tomorrow with a gradual turn to the
north-northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Earl is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda by Friday
morning.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected over the next
12 to 24 hours followed by a faster rate of intensification
through Friday. Earl is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and
a major hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
on Thursday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 062100
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

Earl has become somewhat better organized this afternoon. After the
previous reconnaissance mission concluded, deep convection increased
closer to the low-level circulation, with evidence of deep
convection rotating more up-shear on convectional satellite imagery.
An AMSR2 microwave pass at 1728 UTC also showed this improved
structure, with a formative inner core with at least 50 percent
convective coverage, though it was still evident that the mid-level
center remains displaced to the northeast. This afternoon's Air
Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission confirmed Earl has strengthened
from this morning, with peak 850 mb flight level winds of 72 kt and
SFMR at 63 kt. The second pass through also had a minimum pressure
of 991 mb. These values support increasing the initial intensity to
60 kt this advisory.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Earl has resumed a northward motion,
with the latest estimate at 355/6 kt. There is not much change in
the track reasoning this cycle, as the mid-level ridge over Earl is
expected to break down further and a positively-tilted deep-layer
trough moves offshore of the eastern United States. This trough is
expected to capture the tropical cyclone, helping Earl to recurve to
the northeast with a faster forward motion after 36 hours. The track
guidance did shift a bit to the west this cycle and the latest NHC
track forecast is also bit west of the previous cycle, closest to
the HCCA consensus aid, which remains slightly east of the latest
GFS Forecast.

Earl seems to be effectively battling some rather hostile westerly
deep-layer (200-850 mb) vertical wind shear, estimated at 25-30 kt
in the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS. Earl's resiliency is possibly
related to the shear under this deep-layer being lower in magnitude
and Earl's vortex column not extending all the way to 200 mb. Given
the improvement in structure today, the latest intensity forecast
now shows some slow intensification despite the shear in the next
12-24 hours. After this period, the shear is forecast to rapidly
decrease to under 10 kt by 48 hours, as the cyclone continues to
traverse anomalously warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. The
majority of the models respond to this favorable environment by
showing significant deepening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
a bit higher than the prior one, now showing a peak of 110 kt in 72
hours, similar to the latest HCCA guidance. Thereafter, Earl will
likely begin the process of extratropical transition as it interacts
with a mid-latitude trough, with this transition likely to complete
sometime between the 4-5 day time frame when all deep convection is
stripped away.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
48-60 hours. However, the size of the wind field of the tropical
cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and the Bermuda
Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for the Island of
Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 24.1N 65.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 25.0N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 26.3N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 27.9N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 29.9N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 31.9N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 35.0N 59.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 42.0N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 45.0N 41.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 062055
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EARL IS A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Island of Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. Earl is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue into tomorrow with a gradual turn to the
north-northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Earl is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda by Friday
morning.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected over the next
12 to 24 hours followed by a faster rate of intensification
through Friday. Earl is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and
a major hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
on Thursday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 062055
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
2100 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 65.8W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 65.8W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 65.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.0N 65.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.3N 65.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.9N 65.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.9N 64.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 31.9N 62.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 165SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.0N 59.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 190SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 42.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 45.0N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 061454
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

The structure of Earl this morning is trying to regroup, though
strong westerly vertical wind shear continues to affect the system.
A new burst of deep convection has been attempting to form a little
closer to the low-level center. Morning data from the NOAA-P3
Hurricane Reconnaissance mission show that the mid-level center has
shifted back downshear of the center, though the vertical depth of
the overall circulation is deeper than 24 hours ago. The peak flight
winds from the mission were 62 kt at 700mb, with SFMR values in the
50-55 kt range. The initial intensity is maintained at 55 kt for
this advisory, which is also in line with the subjective Dvorak
estimates.

Earl took a bit of a jog to the northwest this morning, but the
larger mean motion is still generally northward at 360/4 kt. The
gentle mid-level ridging that has been overhead of Earl is forecast
to gradually break down and shift off to the southeast, as a
positively-tilted deep-layer trough moves offshore of the eastern
United States. Ultimately, this trough is expected to capture the
tropical cyclone, helping Earl to recurve to the northeast in the
2-4 day forecast period. How sharp and fast this turn to the
northeast though remains uncertain, with the GFS showing a slower
turn in comparison to some of the other guidance. The updated NHC
track forecast lies very close to the previous official forecast,
closest to the HCCA consensus aid, and roughly in between the
westward GFS and eastward ECMWF for the first 72 hours of the
forecast period.

Strong 25-30 kt of vertical wind shear is expected to keep Earl in
check today, with little intensification forecast in the short
term. However, shear begins to decrease markedly in about 36 h,
with both the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS shear dropping under 10 kt in
60-72 hours. Thus, the latest forecast continues to indicate Earl
becoming a major hurricane around that time-frame. After 96 h, Earl
is forecast to begin undergoing extratropical transition, with the
latest forecast indicating that process completing by day 5.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
60-72 hours. However, the size of the wind field of the tropical
cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and interests on the
island should continue to monitor the progress of the storm closely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 23.7N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 24.4N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 25.5N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 26.8N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 28.6N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 30.6N 63.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 33.0N 61.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 39.3N 52.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 44.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

...EARL HOLDING IN INTENSITY...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 65.7W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 65.7 West. Earl is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a gradual turn to the north-northeast
starting on Wednesday.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicates that maximum sustained
winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Earl is
forecast to maintain its strength today followed by intensification
resuming by tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 060847
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

The deep convective blow-up that occurred last evening and led to
Earl strengthening just shy of hurricane strength was quickly
obliterated by strong shear around the issuance of the previous
advisory. In fact, after measuring a pressure as low as 991 mb
early in their flight, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters reported that the
central pressure had risen to near 998 mb based on the final
dropsonde released near the center. Some deep convection continues
near and to the northeast of the estimated center, but based on the
degraded structure from earlier, the intensity is estimated to be 55
kt. This value agrees with the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from
TAFB and SAB.

The remnant cirrus shield is obscuring the low-level center, so the
initial position is based on interpolation from the previous
forecast. Earl is moving just west of due north, or 350/6 kt, and
it should continue a slow northward path through a break in the
subtropical ridge during the next 36 hours. After that time, a
deep-layer trough sliding off the U.S. east coast is expected to
impart a faster north-northeastward and then northeastward motion
into the upcoming weekend. The updated NHC track forecast lies very
close to the previous official prediction during the first 3 days,
situated among the various multi-model consensus aids. On days 4
and 5, however, the new forecast is faster and to the east of the
previous one, following the trend noted in most of the models.

UW-CIMSS and SHIPS analyses indicate that deep-layer shear over
Earl is from the west-southwest at 30-35 kt. Although the
thermodynamic environment is plenty favorable for intensification,
continued moderate to strong shear could put the breaks on
significant strengthening until Earl turns and moves in the same
direction as the shear vector, which should be in 2-3 days. At
about the same time, Earl could also benefit from a positive
interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough located over the
western Atlantic. While the intensity forecast is highly
uncertain, Earl is still expected to become a hurricane during the
next couple of days, and possibly reach major hurricane strength in
3-4 days.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
about 3 days. However, the size of the wind field of the tropical
cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and interests on the
island should continue to monitor the progress of the storm closely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 23.4N 65.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 24.1N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 25.0N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 26.2N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 29.6N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 31.6N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 37.2N 55.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 42.8N 47.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

...EARL A BIT DISHEVELED THIS MORNING...
...STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 65.4W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 65.4 West. Earl is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward to
north-northwestward motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday. A faster motion toward the north-northeast and
northeast is expected Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Earl is expected to become a
hurricane during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 060846
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0900 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 65.4W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 20SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 60SE 30SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 65.4W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 65.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.1N 65.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.0N 65.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.2N 65.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.6N 64.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 31.6N 62.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 140SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 37.2N 55.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 42.8N 47.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 65.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 052056
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

Earl's structure continues to evolve this afternoon and looks a
little better organized on convectional satellite imagery. The
deepest convective activity now is located primarily north of the
low-level circulation center which still appears partially exposed,
but has become increasingly shrouded by the growing cirrus canopy.
GLM lightning data suggests that these cold convective tops are
continuing to rotate up-shear against the moderate westerly vertical
wind shear and may be helping to better align the low and mid-level
centers, though the lack of recent microwave data makes this
improved structure hard to confirm. However, data received by this
afternoon's Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft suggests the
pressure has not yet fallen much from this morning. Subjective
satellite intensity estimates have a wide range, with TAFB at
T4.0/65-kt while SAB is at T3.0/45-kt. The initial intensity this
advisory will remain 55 kt. Another NOAA-P3 reconnaissance mission
is en route to investigate Earl further this evening.

Earl appears to now be moving due north, with the latest motion
estimated at 360/5 kt. The short-term track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged, with only a general slow northward motion
anticipated for the next 24-36 hours as the storm moves into a
weakness created in the larger-scale ridging over Earl currently.
The biggest change beyond that time period is that the latest ECMWF
run has come in better agreement with the GFS showing a more
significant deep-layer trough digging northeast of Earl, resulting
in more acceleration to the northeast in the latter portion of the
forecast period. The overall track guidance this cycle is now much
faster in the day 3-5 time-frame, and the latest NHC track has also
been made faster to the northeast. However, this forecast is not yet
quite as fast as the consensus aids. Further adjustments may be
needed in subsequent forecasts if this more progressive trend
persists in the guidance. Regardless, along-track uncertainty for
Earl remains larger than normal during this time frame.

The current satellite structure suggests that Earl may be able to
hold its own or even intensify a bit more in the short term,
especially if the low and mid-level centers continue to become
better aligned. While vertical wind shear in the ECMWF- and
GFS-SHIPS is rather high the next 36 hours, between 25-30 kt, this
shear is more driven by the high westerly upper-level winds at 200
mb. The more shallow mid-level shear layer appears to be lower
magnitude over the next 36 hours, and some recent research suggests
that mid-level shear is more influential for tropical cyclone
intensity change. Regardless, even the deep-layer shear decreases to
under 10 kt after 60 hours, and Earl is still forecast to to peak in
intensity in about 4-5 days as a Category 3 hurricane. During the
forecast period, Earl is also expected to grow in size
significantly, with the 34-kt wind radii extending more than 250 n
mi by day 5. The latest intensity forecast has also moved the
intensification rate to earlier in the forecast period, in general
agreement with the latest HCCA and ICON consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ongoing Heavy rainfall from Earl's feeder bands still could lead
to limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the
Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
this afternoon and evening. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in
areas of steep terrain are possible in Puerto Rico. Considerable
flood impacts cannot be ruled out in areas that receive heavier
rainfall totals.

2. Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
around 3-4 days. However, the wind field of the tropical cyclone is
expected to increase significantly, and interests on the island
should continue to monitor the progress of the storm closely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.2N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 23.8N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 24.8N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 26.0N 65.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 27.6N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 29.2N 64.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 33.0N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 052044
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

...EARL NOW MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 65.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 65.2 West. Earl is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a slow northward
motion is expected to continue for the next day or two followed by
a turn to the north-northeast with some acceleration.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several
days, and Earl could become a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 4 inches, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches across the
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through tonight.

Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep
terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior
region of Puerto Rico. Locally considerable flood impacts are
possible in areas that will receive heavier rainfall totals.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 052043
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 65.2W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 15SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 65.2W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 65.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 65.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.8N 65.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.0N 65.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.6N 65.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.2N 64.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 33.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 051456
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

Earl is attempting to restructure again this morning. Convection,
which had been primarily located east of the center, due to
persistent moderate westerly vertical wind shear, has begun to pivot
up-shear into the northern quadrant of the storm. A NOAA-P3 mission
that was in the storm this morning indicated the low-level wind
field in the northern semicircle of the storm had also intensified,
with several dropsondes indicating boundary layer mean winds in the
55-65 kt range and one reported a surface wind gust of 57 kt. These
values match the twin Doppler radar (TDR) onboard of the aircraft,
with peak 0.5 km winds above 64 kt. The peak SFMR winds from the
mission were 58 kt, with 700-mb flight-level winds at 63 kt. The
satellite presentation this morning though remains somewhat ragged,
with the low-level circulation partially exposed, though TDR
analysis suggest the vertical tilt between the low- and mid-level
centers has decreased compared to yesterday. Based partially on the
these aircraft observations, the intensity has been set at 55 kt for
this advisory, which also agrees with the latest TAFB intensity
estimate.

The center of the cyclone may have relocated a bit northeast of the
previous position, but the mean general motion appears to still be
to the north-northwest at 340/4 kt. The track model guidance is
generally in good agreement in the short-term that this slow
northward motion should continue, as the cyclone moves poleward
through a weakness in the deep-layer ridging to its north. This
mid-level ridge is then forecast to continue breaking down as a
deep-layer trough approaches from the eastern United States. This
synoptic pattern change should be enough for Earl to begin a
somewhat faster north-northeastward motion after 72 hours. However,
after this time, uncertainty in the along-track direction between
both deterministic and ensemble guidance starts to increase
dramatically, with the GFS and its ensemble mean faster, and the
ECWMF and its ensemble mean slower. The latest NHC track forecast is
a bit further to the east early on, due to the adjustment in the
initial position, but ends up near, if a bit slower, than the
previous forecast track by the end of the forecast period. This
track is close to an average of the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts.
Given the large uncertainty observed in the guidance at day 5,
forecast track confidence in that time frame is lower than normal.

While Earl was found to be a bit stronger by the NOAA-P3 aircraft
this morning, westerly vertical wind shear is still quite evident,
and both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance suggests this shear
could actually increase a bit more over the next 24-36 hours. Thus,
only a slight additional amount of intensification is forecast
today, followed by Earl remaining steady over the 24-36 hour period.
After the cyclone moves poleward of the shear zone induced by a
nearby tropical upper-tropospheric trough, the shear is expected to
decrease significantly, allowing more robust intensification. The
tropical storm wind field is also forecast to increase dramatically
during this period as a result of the system also undergoing a
positive upper-level trough interaction. The latest NHC intensity
forecast still shows a peak intensity of 105 kt by day 5, though
some regional hurricane models (HWRF, COAMPS-TC) are a bit higher
than this forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid rises
on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in
Puerto Rico. Considerable flood impacts cannot be ruled out in
areas that receive heavier rainfall totals.

2. Currently Earl is forecast to track to the southeast of Bermuda.
However, the wind field of the tropical cyclone is expected to
increase significantly, and interests on the island should continue
to monitor the progress of the storm closely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.5N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 23.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 27.0N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 28.3N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 34.4N 59.1W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 051450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

...EARL NOW A 65-MPH TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 65.3 West. Earl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion
to the north-northwest or north is forecast to continue for the next
24 to 48 hours followed by a gradual turn to the north-northeast
thereafter.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data earlier indicated that the
maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible later today,
with little change in strength expected tomorrow. Earl could still
become a hurricane later this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 4 inches, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches, across the
Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Monday.

Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep
terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior
region of Puerto Rico. Locally considerable flood impacts are
possible in areas that will receive heavier rainfall totals.

WIND: Winds are diminishing across the the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 051448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 65.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 65.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 65.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 65.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.7N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 65.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.3N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 34.4N 59.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 051247
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
850 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EARL IS STRONGER...

Recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicates that Earl now
has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts.
This updated information will be reflected in the next advisory at
1500 UTC.

SUMMARY OF 850 AM AST...1250 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 65.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 050852
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Earl continues to produce
strong convection to the northeast of the center. However, data
from the SHIPS model and analyses from CIMSS at the University
of Wisconsin indicate that there is now 20-25 kt of southwesterly
vertical shear impacting the cyclone. As a result, the low-level
center remains located near or just outside of the southwestern
edge of the main convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates
have changed little since the last advisory, and data from NOAA
buoy 41043 suggests the central pressure is still in the 998-1000
mb range. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.
Earlier scatterometer data showed that the circulation center was
elongated from northeast to southwest, and recent wind obs suggest
the northeast end of the elongation is near the NOAA buoy.

Earl is turning more northward, with the initial motion now 335/4
kt. For the next three days or so, the storm should move slowly
northward in the flow between the subtropical ridge to the east and
a mid- to upper-level trough to the west and northwest. After
that, a motion more toward the northeast is expected as Earl
reaches the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. The
large-scale models are in poor agreement on the features in the
westerlies that Earl will encounter, with the GFS showing stronger
flow and a faster motion than the UKMET and ECMWF. The new
forecast track is changed little through 60 h, then it is nudged a
little westward based on a shift in the guidance envelope. The
track lies close to the various consensus models, and the speed at
the end is a compromise between the faster GFS and the slower
UKMET/ECMWF.

The large-scale models suggest that the current shear will persist
for about the next 48 h. After 48-60 h, Earl may find a region of
lighter shear that could allow more significant strengthening.
The new intensity forecast is a little slower to intensify Earl
through 48 h based on the shear forecast, and it is possible that
Earl could strengthen less than forecast during this time. Later
on, the new forecast is similar to the previous forecast. It
should be noted that if Earl does find a more favorable environment
later in the forecast period, there are several models with a higher
120-h forecast intensity than the current official forecast of 105
kt.

While tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to stay north of
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico,
training rainbands are producing heavy rainfall over portions of
these islands. Users should refer to products issued by local
weather offices in these areas.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid rises
on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in
Puerto Rico. Considerable flood impacts cannot be ruled out in
areas that receive heavier rainfall totals.

2. Earl is forecast to remain to the north of the the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico today, but gusty winds, especially in
squalls, remain possible on those islands for a few more hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 20.9N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 21.7N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 22.9N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 24.0N 65.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 25.1N 65.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 26.2N 65.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 27.3N 65.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 30.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 33.5N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 050850
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 65.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 65.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 65.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 65.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 65.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.0N 65.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.1N 65.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.2N 65.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.3N 65.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 30.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 33.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050851
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

...EARL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 65.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 65.3 West. Earl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn
toward the north at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
later today, with this motion continuing for the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Earl
could become a hurricane later this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. NOAA data buoy 41043 recently reported a
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph
(79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
NOAA data buoy 41043 recently reported a pressure of 1001.4 mb
(29.57 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 4 inches, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches, across the
Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Monday.

Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep
terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior
region of Puerto Rico. Locally considerable flood impacts are
possible in areas that will receive heavier rainfall totals.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
for a few more hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 050245
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

Earl continues to produce intense deep convection with tops colder
than -80 deg C over the eastern portion of its circulation,
but the system still lacks clear-cut banding features. A 2306 UTC
SSMIS microwave image showed that the low-level center is displaced
to the west-southwest of the main area of convection. Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 45 kt to 55 kt, and given that there
has been no obvious change in organization since the aircraft
missions earlier today, the current intensity estimate is held at 45
kt for this advisory.

The storm is still being affected by southwesterly vertical wind
shear associated with an upper-level trough located several hundred
miles to the west and northwest. However, Earl's upper-level
outflow pattern is gradually becoming better defined, and global
model predictions suggest a slow relaxation of the shear over the
next several days as the trough shifts a little to the northwest.
Since the other environmental factors appear conducive for
strengthening, gradual intensification is likely. The official
intensity forecast is close to both the simple and corrected model
consensus and also very similar to the previous NHC forecast. Earl
could become the first major hurricane of this Atlantic season.

Earl's motion is a somewhat uncertain but slow 305/3 kt. The storm
remains in a region of weak steering currents with mid-level
anticyclones currently located to the west, northwest and east. By
tomorrow, however, Earl should begin to move northward into a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period,
the cyclone is expected to start coming under the influence of a
trough in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies and
turn toward the north-northeast and northeast. The official track
forecast is just slightly left of the previous NHC track and close
to the latest dynamical model consensus. This is roughly in the
middle of the rather tightly clustered track guidance model suite.

While tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to stay north of
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico,
training rainbands are producing heavy rainfall over portions of
these islands. Users should refer to products issued by local
weather offices in these areas.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid rises
on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in
Puerto Rico. Considerable flood impacts cannot be ruled out in
areas that receive heavier rainfall totals.

2. Earl is forecast to remain to the north of the the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, but gusty winds, especially in
squalls, remain possible on those islands overnight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.2N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.3N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 22.5N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 23.6N 65.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 24.5N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 25.4N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 26.4N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 28.7N 64.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 32.0N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050245
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

...EARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 65.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 65.4 West. Earl is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
north with some increase in forward speed is expected on Monday,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Earl
could become a hurricane later this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. NOAA data buoy 41043 recently reported a
sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 1 to 4 inches, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches, across
the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico through Monday.

Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep
terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior
region of Puerto Rico. Locally considerable flood impacts are
possible in areas that will receive heavier rainfall totals.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 050244
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 65.4W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 65.4W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 65.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 65.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.6N 65.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.5N 65.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.4N 65.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.4N 65.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.7N 64.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 32.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 65.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 042056
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

The large bursting pattern that was observed this morning with Earl
has evolved more into a shear pattern this afternoon, with the
low-level center becoming partially exposed to the west of the
coldest cloud tops that are displaced about 50 n mi east of the
center. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft conducted an
afternoon mission through the storm and found the highest 850 mb
flight-level winds of 51 kt with SFMR winds up to 48 kt. Satellite
intensity estimates remain unchanged from this morning, and the
initial intensity will remain 45 kt for this advisory.

The last several fixes from the aircraft indicate Earl has resumed a
slow northwestward motion at 310/4 kt. The forecasting reasoning has
not changed much from the previous forecast cycle, as a mid-level
ridge is expected to result in Earl turning to the north-northwest
over the next 12 to 24 hours. This slow motion should continue
thereafter as the ridge continues to slowly break down and shift
gradually eastward through the early part of this week. Towards the
end of the forecast, the strongest ridging is expected to be east of
Earl, allowing the cyclone to slowly recurve to the north-northeast.
The latest track guidance this cycle has narrowed somewhat, with the
latest ECMWF forecast shifting east, while the most recent GFS
shifted a touch west. Thus, little change was made to the NHC track
forecast this advisory, which lies quite close to the latest TVCN
and HCCA consensus aids.

It appears that this morning's convective burst was unsuccessful in
helping to vertically align Earl's vortex, and the mid-level center
noted on Puerto Rico radar is still located east of the aircraft
fixes. This failure was likely due to continued westerly vertical
wind shear undercutting the outflow layer and importing dry air into
Earl's core. However, most of the global and regional hurricane
models suggest that additional convective bursts will continue over
the next 24-48 hours, resulting in gradual intensification as the
cyclone becomes better vertically aligned. Thus, the latest NHC
intensity forecast continues to show slow intensification in the
short-term, with Earl possibly attaining hurricane intensity in a
couple of days. After 72 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the
shear will decrease, while the cyclone may also undergo a favorable
trough interaction. The guidance responds to this pattern by
indicating more significant intensification, and the latest advisory
shows a somewhat higher peak intensity of 105 kt by day 5.

While tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to stay north of
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico,
training rain-bands are producing heavy rainfall over these islands.
Users should refer to products issued by local weather offices in
these areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid rises
on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in
Puerto Rico. Locally considerable flood impacts cannot be ruled out
in areas that receive heavier rainfall totals.

2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico tonight, but gusty winds, especially in squalls,
remain possible on those islands overnight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 20.0N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.3N 65.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 23.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 24.6N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 25.4N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 26.4N 65.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 28.2N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 31.4N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 042044
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

...EARL RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...
...ONGOING HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULTING IN FLOODING IMPACTS IN PUERTO
RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 65.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 65.2 West. Earl has
resumed a slow northwestward motion near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a
gradual turn to the north-northwest is anticipated to begin
tomorrow followed by a north-northeastward turn later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast over the next several days,
and Earl could become a hurricane later this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3
to 5 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, across the Leeward
Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today
into tomorrow.

Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible. Rapid rises on rivers, and mudslides in areas of steep
terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior
region of Puerto Rico. Locally considerable flood impacts are
possible in areas that will receive heavier rainfall totals.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 042044
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 65.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 65.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 65.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.3N 65.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.6N 65.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.4N 65.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.4N 65.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.2N 64.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 31.4N 61.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 041459
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

This morning, Earl developed a large convective burst, with cold
convective cloud tops below -80 C and the larger cirrus plume
obscuring the low-level center. A NOAA-P3 mission has also be flying
through Earl this morning, showing that the center may be in the
process of reorganizing closer to this recent convective burst.
WSR-88D radar imagery from Puerto Rico earlier showed a well-defined
mid-level vortex associated with this convective burst up at 20 k
feet, which matched the NOAA-P3 TDR data, but it is unclear how
close the surface vortex is relative to this mid-level center.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.0/45-kt and
T3.5/55-kt respectively, though objective estimates are somewhat
lower, with ADT only at 33-kt and SATCON at 44-kt. A blend of these
estimates and the wind data from the NOAA-P3 mission support
maintaining the intensity at 45 kt for this advisory.

Earl appears to have slowed down further this morning, and may be in
the process of relocating closer to the convective burst, with the
latest motion an uncertain 310/3 kt. As mentioned previously, there
is a weakness in the mid-level ridging to the north of the storm,
and this should enable Earl to make a gradual turn to the
north-northwest and north over the next 24-72 hours. The mid-level
ridging then shifts mostly east of the cyclone, allowing a continued
slow north-northeastward motion thereafter. The latest track
guidance has shifted east in the short term due in part to the
initial position, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted
in that direction and lies just west of TVCN consensus. However, the
latest track forecast is not as far to the east as the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA), GFS or HWRF forecasts, and additional
eastward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts.

The large convective burst this morning makes the short-term
intensity forecast somewhat tricky. If the low-level center is able
to reform and become better aligned with the mid-level center, some
intensification could occur. If and when this occurs is important,
with the latest HWRF and GFS forecasts suggesting this could occur
as soon as later today, resulting in more significant
intensification. However, the HMON, HAFS-S, and ECMWF suggest it may
take a few days for a more aligned structure to occur, likely
delayed by continued moderate (15-25 kts) southwesterly vertical
wind shear, which is expected to persist for the next 2-3 days. The
latest NHC intensity forecast opts to split the difference, now
showing gradual intensification over the next 24-48 hours, making
Earl a hurricane in 48 hours. This is higher than the previous NHC
intensity forecast, but is under the latest HCCA, HWRF, and
GFS-SHIPS guidance. After 72 h, shear is expected to decrease, and
more robust intensification is possible thereafter, with the latest
intensity forecast now making Earl a major hurricane by 120 h, in
good agreement with the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

At this juncture, tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to
remain on the northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are
not expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are
possible at these locations through tonight.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid
rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible
in Puerto Rico.

2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico today, but gusty winds, especially in squalls,
remain possible on those islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 19.5N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.4N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.5N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 22.6N 65.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 23.5N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 25.7N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 27.2N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 29.6N 61.8W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 041453
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

...EARL MEANDERING NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IMPACTS IN PUERTO RICO,
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 64.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 64.4 West. Earl is
meandering currently with an estimated motion toward the northwest
near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn to the north-northwest is expected
to begin tomorrow followed by a turn northward later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast over the next several days,
and Earl could become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward
Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today.

Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep
terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior
region of Puerto Rico.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 041451
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 65.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.6N 65.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N 65.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.2N 64.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 29.6N 61.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 64.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 040835
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and WSR-88D radar data
from Puerto Rico indicate that Earl remains disorganized due to
ongoing southwesterly vertical wind shear, and that the center is
rather tricky to locate. One vorticity center, associated with a
fresh convective burst, is located just north of the Virgin
Islands. However, TAFB and SAB fixed on another cloud area farther
north, while the radar data suggests another vorticity center in
the deep convection to the northeast of the Virgin Islands. The
advisory position is a mean center between these features and is a
little north of the new burst. The satellite intensity estimates
are unchanged from earlier, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The storm has slowed its forward motion, which is now 285/7 kt.
The track guidance is in good agreement that a break will form in
the subtropical ridge as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to
the northwest of Earl beginning later today. This should cause the
cyclone to turn northwestward during the next 12-24 h, with a
northward motion likely from 24-72 h and a north-northeastward
motion from 72-120 h. The track models are in good agreement on
the general direction of motion. However, while the GFS is slower
than its previous forecast it is still faster than the rest of the
guidance. The new forecast track is nudged to the right of the
previous forecast based on the overall shift of the guidance
envelope. During the first 72 h, it is in best agreement with the
GFS and UKMET ensemble means, and after that time it lies close to
the various consensus models.

The ongoing shear is expected to continue through at least the next
72 h, and thus only gradual strengthening is likely during this
time as Earl moves over warm sea surface temperatures in a moist
environment. After that time, the cyclone could interact with the
aforementioned trough in such a way to leave Earl in a more
favorable environment for intensification, and the dynamical
models forecast significant strengthening toward the end of the
forecast period. The new intensity forecast has only minor
adjustments from the previous forecast, and for the first 72 h it is
close to the bulk of the intensity guidance. After it time, the
forecast is below that of most of the guidance due to the
uncertainty of how favorable the environment will be.

Tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on the
northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are not expected
to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or
Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are possible at these
locations through tonight.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid
rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible
in Puerto Rico.

2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico today, and gusty winds, especially in squalls,
area possible on those islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 19.5N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.1N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.0N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 23.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 24.0N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 25.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 26.5N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 28.5N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 040834
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

...EARL PASSING NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IMPACTS IN PUERTO RICO,
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 64.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 64.9 West. Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward
speed and a gradual turn toward the northwest and then north is
forecast to begin tonight and continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the north
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and then move away
from the islands tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward
Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico on Sunday.

Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep
terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior
region of Puerto Rico.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 040834
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0900 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 65.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 66.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.0N 66.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.0N 66.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 64.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 040234
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

There are no indications that Earl has strengthened further than it
did this afternoon. The low-level center is a little difficult to
locate since it's obscured by high-level cirrus clouds, but it
appears to have moved out ahead of the deep convection again. The
initial intensity remains 45 kt, and this fits a blend of the
latest Dvorak estimates of T3.5 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively.

Earl continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south
of a low- to mid-level ridge. However, a break is developing in the
ridge over the western Atlantic, which should allow Earl to turn
northwestward on Sunday, followed by a recurvature toward the north
and northeast Tuesday through Thursday. Although the track models
agree on this scenario, the biggest differences among them is the
along-track component, or how much Earl accelerates toward the north
and northeast on days 3 through 5. Interestingly, both the GFS and
ECMWF ensemble means are well west and slower than their respective
deterministic runs, and the deterministic GFS in particular is an
extreme outlier and much faster than all other guidance by day 5
(likely because it carries a much stronger cyclone). With so many
ensemble solutions slower and to the west, the updated NHC track
forecast is placed to the west of many of the multi-model consensus
aids, and it's just slightly west of the previous forecast.

The moderate to strong shear affecting Earl is unlikely to abate
through much of the forecast period. Despite this shear, very warm
waters of at least 29 degrees Celsius and an unstable atmospheric
environment are expected to encourage gradual strengthening during
the next couple of days. Then, around day 3, Earl could get an
additional positive boost from interaction with an upper-level
trough over the western Atlantic, and the official forecast shows
the system reaching hurricane strength by day 4 and intensifying
through the end of the forecast period. It should be noted that a
few models show significant strengthening by days 4 and 5, but for
now the official forecast is conservative and is only nudged upward
toward the IVCN model consensus.

Tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on the
northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are not expected
to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or
Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are possible at these
locations through Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Rapid
rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible
in Puerto Rico.

2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico overnight and on Sunday. Gusty winds, especially in
squalls, area possible on those islands through Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.5N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 20.0N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.7N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 22.7N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 23.5N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 24.3N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 25.6N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 27.5N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 040233
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 66.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.7N 66.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.7N 66.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.3N 66.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.6N 65.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 27.5N 63.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 64.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 040233
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

...HEAVY RAINS FROM EARL COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IMPACTS IN
PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 64.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 64.2 West. Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue overnight. A decrease in forward
speed and a gradual turn toward the northwest and then north is
forecast to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the north
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward
Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this
weekend.

Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep
terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior
region of Puerto Rico.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 032044
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

Earl has strengthened this afternoon. Satellite data indicate the
previously exposed low-level center of the cyclone has been drawn
underneath an area of deep convection, with cloud top temperatures
colder than -70C. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that
recently investigated the storm reported max flight-level (925 mb)
winds of 56 kt. This would support surface winds between 40 and 45
kt using a standard reduction factor. Based on these data, the
cyclone's improved satellite structure, and falling surface
pressures throughout the day, the initial intensity of Earl is
raised to 45 kt for this advisory.

The cyclone has strengthened some today despite facing moderate
deep-layer southwesterly shear. The shear is forecast to persist or
even increase during the next couple of days, so some fluctuation in
intensity is possible if the deep convection gets stripped away and
the center becomes exposed again. But, sea-surface temperatures
greater than 29C should continue to support convective development,
and the overall trend in the latest intensity guidance favors at
least slow strengthening into early next week. Then, the models
suggest that favorable interaction with an upper-level trough over
the warm waters of the western Atlantic will promote additional
strengthening, along with a broadening of the wind field. The latest
NHC intensity forecast has been raised closer to the HCCA and IVCN
consensus aids, and it now brings Earl up to hurricane strength at
days 4-5.

The initial motion of Earl is west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt. The
general forecast track reasoning has not changed. Earl is expected
to slow down as it moves west-northwestward to northwestward over
the next couple of days. A weakness in the subtropical ridge should
allow the cyclone to gradually turn northward early next week, then
move northeastward as it becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level
trough over the western Atlantic. The official NHC forecast track is
very similar to the previous forecast and lies slightly to the left
of the HCCA and TVCA aids.

Tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on the
northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are not expected
to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or
Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are possible at these
locations through Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Rapid
rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible
in Puerto Rico.

2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday. Gusty winds, especially in
squalls, area possible on those islands through Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.3N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.7N 64.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.5N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.3N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 22.2N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 23.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 24.1N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 25.6N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 27.7N 63.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 032042
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

...EARL STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 63.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 63.2 West. Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass north
of the northern Leeward Islands through this evening, and north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward
Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this
weekend.

Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep
terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior
region of Puerto Rico.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 032042
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 63.2W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 63.2W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 64.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N 66.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.0N 66.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.1N 66.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.6N 65.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 27.7N 63.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 031457
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

Earl is a sheared tropical cyclone this morning, as the low-level
center is fully exposed to the west of the convective mass. NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate the vortex remains tilted
due to about 15 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear over the
cyclone. Recently, a more vigorous burst of convection has developed
closer to the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based
on a blend of flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data from the
aircraft. It is noted that the surface pressure near the center has
fallen a couple of millibars since the previous advisory.

The cyclone remains on a west-northwestward heading as it is being
steered by the subtropical ridge. The guidance remains in very good
agreement that Earl will maintain a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed over the next
couple of days. As a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge
early next week, Earl is forecast to turn slowly northward and then
northeastward by days 3-5 as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the western Atlantic. Although there is increasing spread in
the track guidance during this period as to how quickly Earl
recurves, there is good overall agreement that the cyclone track
will remain over the open Atlantic waters. The official NHC forecast
has been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous one during
the 36-72 h window, based on similar trends noted in the guidance
consensus aids.

It appears that moderate deep-layer shear will continue to impact
Earl during the next couple of days. Therefore, only modest
strengthening is forecast during this time as the cyclone could
struggle to become vertically aligned and sustain convection near
its center. The intensity forecast is of lower confidence later in
the period once Earl begins turning northward. Although the vertical
shear is expected to persist or even strengthen, the potential for
favorable interaction with the upper trough should allow for
additional strengthening during this period, while the wind field of
the cyclone broadens. Most of the dynamical models support this
strengthening trend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted upward some during this period. However, there remains
large spread in the intensity guidance at days 3-5, and the NHC
forecast remains on the lower end of the models.

Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to remain on the northern
and eastern side of the circulation, and as a result, are not
expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are
possible at these locations over the weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to pass near or just to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the weekend. Gusty winds, especially in squalls,
area possible on those islands over the next day or two.

2. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend.
Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are
possible in Puerto Rico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 19.0N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.3N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 21.0N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 21.8N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 22.7N 66.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 24.0N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 25.3N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 27.0N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 031455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

...EARL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 62.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 62.4 West. Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early
Sunday. A turn toward the northwest with an additional decrease in
forward speed is expected Sunday through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Earl is expected to pass just north of the
northern Leeward Islands today, and north of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward
Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this
weekend.

Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep
terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior
region of Puerto Rico.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through the weekend.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 031454
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 62.4W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 62.4W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 61.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 65.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 65.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N 66.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.7N 66.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 66.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.3N 65.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 62.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 030842
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

Satellite imagery and radar data from Guadeloupe show that Earl
remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center
located to the west of the main convective mass. Various satellite
intensity estimates are in the 25-45 kt range and have changed
little since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial
intensity remains 35 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will
investigate Earl starting near 1000 UTC.

The initial motion is 285/11. The track guidance remains in good
agreement that Earl should move west-northwestward and
northwestward with a decrease in forward speed for the next couple
of days as it is steered by the subtropical ridge. There is little
change in this part of the forecast track from the previous
advisory. After that time, a slower motion toward the north and
eventually north-northeast is expected as a mid- to upper-level
trough develops over the Atlantic to the west and north of Earl.
The guidance envelope for the latter part of the forecast track has
shifted eastward, and while the new forecast track is also nudged
eastward it is west of the consensus models from 60-120 h.

Earl is feeling the effects of moderate westerly shear, and current
indications are this will continue for the next 48 h or so. Thus,
the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during this
time. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain as Earl turns
northward. While some shear is likely to continue, the dynamical
models are in good agreement that the cyclone will strengthen,
possibly due to a favorable interaction to the aforementioned
upper-level trough. However, there is poor agreement between the
models in the details of this interaction. Given that, the
intensity forecast from 72-120 h will show a little more
strengthening than the previous forecast. However, the forecast
intensities are on the low side of the guidance envelope.

Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to remain on the northern
and eastern side of the circulation, and as a result, are not
expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, any southward shift of Earl's
center would increase the risk of tropical-storm-force winds in
those areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to pass near or just to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the weekend. Gusty winds, especially in squalls,
area possible on those islands over the next day or two.

2. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend.
Rapid rises on rivers are possible in Puerto Rico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 19.2N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.9N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.6N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 21.2N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 21.8N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.6N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 24.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 25.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 030841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

...EARL CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 61.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 61.4 West. Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early
Sunday. A turn toward the northwest with an additional decrease in
forward speed is expected Sunday through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Earl is expected to pass near or north of the
northern Leeward Islands today, and north of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is possible during the next few of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward
Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this
weekend. Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts
will be possible. Rapid rises on rivers are possible in Puerto
Rico.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through the weekend.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 030841
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0900 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 61.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 61.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 60.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 62.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.9N 64.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.6N 65.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.2N 66.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.8N 67.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N 67.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 25.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 61.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 030258 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 60.3W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 60.3W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 65.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 66.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 67.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.2N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 67.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 60.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 030257 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 02 2022

Corrected time of next advisory

...TROPICAL STORM EARL FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN
ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 60.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 60.3 West. Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early
Sunday. A turn toward the northwest with an additional decrease in
forward speed is expected Sunday through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Earl is expected to pass near or north of the
northern Leeward Islands on Saturday, and north of the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday night and Sunday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the
next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1005 mb
(29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward
Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
this weekend. Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding will
be possible. Rapid rises on rivers are also possible in Puerto
Rico.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through the weekend.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 030236
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 60.3W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 60.3W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 65.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 66.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 67.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.2N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 67.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 60.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 030236
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 02 2022

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft each flew
missions into the area of low pressure east of the Leeward Islands
this afternoon into this evening, and the data from those flights
indicated that the circulation and center of the low became well
defined today. Deep convection has also persisted with the low,
albeit sheared near and to the east of the center, which means the
system has finally met the criteria of a tropical cyclone.
Flight-level, surface, and dropsonde data from the reconnaissance
flights all indicate that the system is producing
tropical-storm-force winds in the convection well to the east of the
center, and for good measure TAFB provided a Dvorak estimate of
T2.5/35 kt. The low is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm
Earl with maximum winds of 35 kt. The minimum pressure is estimated
to be 1005 mb based on an Air Force dropsonde that measured a
surface pressure of 1007 mb with 23-kt winds.

Earl is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295/12 kt. The track
guidance is in fairly good agreement during the next 3 days, with a
low- to mid-level ridge expected to steer Earl west-northwestward
and then northwestward at decreasing forward speed. The ridge to
the north is forecast to weaken and shift westward around day 3,
which should cause Earl to slow down to less than 5 kt and turn
northward by day 4, and then north-northeastward by day 5 as it
begins to feel the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies to the
north. The biggest outliers on days 4 and 5 are the GFS and HMON,
which show a stronger Earl moving faster toward the northeast. For
now, the NHC official forecast favors a slower scenario on days 4
and 5, closer to the ECMWF, HWRF, HCCA, and TVCN.

Moderate to strong shear is likely to continue affecting Earl for
much of the next 5 days, possibly peaking in 3 to 4 days according
to the SHIPS guidance. Mid-level relative humidity ahead of the
system also remains lower than what is ideal for strengthening, and
as a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows only modest
intensification through the forecast period. This forecast is very
close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to remain on the northern
and eastern side of the circulation, and as a result, are not
expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, any southward shift of Earl's
center would increase the risk of tropical-storm-force winds in
those areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm Earl is forecast to pass near or just to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the weekend. Gusty winds, especially in squalls,
area possible on those islands over the next day or two.

2. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding over the Leeward Islands, U.S. and
British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Rapid rises
on rivers are possible in Puerto Rico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 18.4N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.9N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 20.2N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.9N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 21.5N 67.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 22.2N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 23.3N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 24.7N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 030236
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 02 2022

...TROPICAL STORM EARL FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN
ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 60.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 60.3 West. Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early
Sunday. A turn toward the northwest with an additional decrease in
forward speed is expected Sunday through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Earl is expected to pass near or north of the
northern Leeward Islands on Saturday, and north of the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday night and Sunday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the
next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1005 mb
(29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward
Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
this weekend. Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding will
be possible. Rapid rises on rivers are also possible in Puerto
Rico.

WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through the weekend.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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