Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (24 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	58 km/h	0.3 m	34 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 260 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran	262,309	+
	Afghanistan	34,490
	Iran	227,819

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	India, Myanmar, Thailand	1,247,137	+
	Myanmar	591,657
	India	653,068
	Thailand	2,412
50-100 mm	China, Nepal, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Thailand	65,137,719	+
	China	102,023
	Nepal	4,509,123
	Myanmar	5,169,950
	India	50,802,743
	Bangladesh	367,276
	Thailand	4,186,601

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	317	1.2 million			-	-	-	-	China, Nepal, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Kambhat, India. This height is estimated for 24 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Kambhat	India	0.3
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Kavi	India	0.3
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Sarod	India	0.3
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Wadgam	India	0.3
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	New Kandla	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 16:30	Asarsa	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 16:15	Harinagar	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 13:45	Jodiya	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 16:00	Ghogha	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 16:15	Dahej	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 16:15	Tankari	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 16:15	Muler	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Tuna	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 13:00	Jambura	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 14:45	Deh-Cabo	Somalia	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 14:45	Cadayo	Somalia	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 17:00	Bandar-e Dargaham	Iran	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 17:00	Dogerdan	Iran	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 17:00	Qeshm	Iran	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 17:00	Bandar Abbas	Iran	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 14:15	Bhagva	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 14:15	Damka	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 14:15	Olpad	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Shwe-o	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Alanbya	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Mokkamu	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Boyagyi	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Kyaikto	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Kyaikpi	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Kawbein	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Damathat	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Ghuar Mota	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Pauktaw	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Zokali	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Taungxun	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 15:00	Abu Dhabi	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:45	Ywathitke	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:45	Sittwe	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:45	Kangyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:45	Aindin	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:45	Pyaingdaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:45	Kyaukpyinseik	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Jalalpur	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Nausari	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Dharasana	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Valsad	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Bilimora	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Mahuver	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Navsari	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Taunggyi	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Budin	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Kadaik	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Donwun	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:00	Mundra	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:30	Sika	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 16:00	Kotada	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Akri	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:45	Thamaseikta	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:45	Kangyisu	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:15	Jhankhar	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Pahel	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Bandar-e Laft	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Laft	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:00	Payi Pusht	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:30	Surat	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:45	Mahameik	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:45	Tanbingyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 15:00	Bambu Khan	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 15:00	Goth Jumo	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Chudeswar	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Salaya	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 14:30	Shangyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 15:15	Mahuva	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:30	Udvada	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Aramda	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 15:00	Jhol	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 15:00	Gadanjo	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Qaysad	Oman	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:15	Daman	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:45	Khindan	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 16:15	Hormoz	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Navinal	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 15:45	Arzeni	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 13:15	Darein	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Golbania	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Bagala	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Debpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Bhaylabania	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Chalitabunia	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Hare	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Neta	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Chhota Baisdia	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Andar Char	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Burirchar	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Lakshmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Manika	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:30	Hpanchaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:30	Chinbyin	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 17:30	Maitbhanga	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 17:30	Dhalapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 17:30	Kamla Char	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 17:30	Jafarnagar	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 17:30	Barabkunda	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 17:30	Bansbaria	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 17:30	Kumira	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 17:30	Sitalpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 17:30	Bhatiari	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 17:30	Dakhin Kattali	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 15:30	Bada	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 15:30	Cheru	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 15:30	Sonmiani	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 17:30	Chittagong	Bangladesh	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.