Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for ROSLYN-22 in Mexico from 20 Oct 2022 03:00 UTC to 24 Oct 2022 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22

in Mexico

20 Oct 2022 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (20 Oct 04:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	76 km/h	0.3 m	248 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	216 km/h	0.5 m	483 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

216 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	20 Oct 2022 00:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	3,813
50-100 mm	Mexico	29,493

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	20 Oct 2022 00:00	769	4 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Texas, Beach City, United States. This height is estimated for 22/10/2022 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22/10/2022 19:00	Texas, Beach City	United States	0.3
	22/10/2022 20:00	Texas, Cedar Point	United States	0.3
	22/10/2022 21:00	Texas, Seabrook	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 15:00	Texas, El Campo Club Community	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 09:00	Louisiana, Cypremort Point	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 21:00	Texas, North Beach	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 19:00	Texas, Smith Point	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 05:00	Louisiana, Cameron	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 21:00	Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 20:00	Texas, Port Ingleside	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 04:00	Texas, Caplen	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 04:00	Texas, Gilchrist	United States	0.2
	20/10/2022 03:00	Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real	Mexico	0.2
	22/10/2022 04:00	Texas, Crystal Beach	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 04:00	Texas, Patton	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 21:00	Tamaulipas, El Mezquite	Mexico	0.2
	20/10/2022 04:00	Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.2
	22/10/2022 15:00	Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach	United States	0.2
	22/10/2022 04:00	Sonora, La Choya	Mexico	0.1
	22/10/2022 15:00	Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor	United States	0.1
	22/10/2022 14:00	Texas, Quintana	United States	0.1
	22/10/2022 21:00	Tamaulipas, El Porvenir	Mexico	0.1
	22/10/2022 21:00	Baja California, Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	22/10/2022 21:00	Tamaulipas, El Mezquital	Mexico	0.1
	22/10/2022 20:00	Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas	Mexico	0.1
	22/10/2022 20:00	Veracruz, Buen Pais	Mexico	0.1
	22/10/2022 21:00	Veracruz, La Guadalupe	Mexico	0.1
	22/10/2022 21:00	Veracruz, Tecolutla	Mexico	0.1
	22/10/2022 21:00	Veracruz, Monte Gordo	Mexico	0.1
	22/10/2022 05:00	Louisiana, Cocodrie	United States	0.1
	22/10/2022 20:00	Mississippi, Bay St Louis	United States	0.1
	22/10/2022 20:00	Mississippi, Henderson Point	United States	0.1
	22/10/2022 21:00	Louisiana, North Side	United States	0.1
	22/10/2022 21:00	Louisiana, English Lookout	United States	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.