Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for SITRANG-22 in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Bhutan from 23 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC to 24 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for SITRANG-22

in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Bhutan

24 Oct 2022 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SITRANG-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	China, Bangladesh, Myanmar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.4 m (24 Oct 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	76 km/h	1.4 m	251 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	97 km/h	1.4 m	407 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to 7 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	China, Bangladesh, Myanmar	7,041,341	+
	China	460
	Bangladesh	6,645,684
	Myanmar	395,195

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	23 Oct 2022 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	23 Oct 2022 18:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Oct 2022 00:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Bangladesh, Myanmar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India, Myanmar, Bangladesh	1,563,384	+
	India	100,849
	Myanmar	7,811
	Bangladesh	1,454,723
100-250 mm	India, Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh	10,091,955	+
	India	2,669,811
	Myanmar	932,162
	Bhutan	17,681
	Bangladesh	6,472,299
50-100 mm	China, India, Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh	64,908,782	+
	China	1,484
	India	16,527,093
	Myanmar	1,234,655
	Bhutan	47,028
	Bangladesh	47,098,520

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	23 Oct 2022 12:00	208	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	23 Oct 2022 18:00	318	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Oct 2022 00:00	497	11.7 million				-	-	-	China, India, Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Ben Tre, Ap An Thuan, Vietnam. This height is estimated for 23/10/2022 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	23/10/2022 12:00	Ben Tre, Ap An Thuan	Vietnam	0.1
	23/10/2022 12:00	Ben Tre, Thoi Thuan	Vietnam	0.1
	23/10/2022 12:00	Tra Vinh, Thanh Phong	Vietnam	0.1
	23/10/2022 20:00	Pahang, Balok	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Surat Thani, Ban Tha Krachai	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Koh Kong, Bang Krassop	Cambodia	0.0
	24/10/2022 11:00	Songkhla, Ban Hlem Son	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 11:00	Songkhla, Songkhla	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 02:00	Ca Mau, Xom Rach Tau	Vietnam	0.0
	24/10/2022 22:00	Phetchaburi, Ban Pak Khlong	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 22:00	Phetchaburi, Ban Hua Hin	Thailand	0.0
	23/10/2022 19:00	Terengganu, Kijal	Malaysia	0.0
	23/10/2022 21:00	Pahang, Kuala Pahang	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 12:00	Songkhla, Ban Map Bua	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 22:00	Prachuap Khiri Khan, Hua Hin	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 14:00	Pattani, Kampong Nam Bau	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Trat, Ban Ao Cho	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 03:00	Pahang, Kampong Merchong	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 22:00	Phetchaburi, Ban Huai Sai Tai	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 22:00	Phetchaburi, Ban Bang Gwai	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Trat, Ban Pak Khlong Tha Luan	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 12:00	Nakhon Si Thammarat, Ban Tha Sala	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 03:00	Johor, Kampung Mawar	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Trat, Ko Mak Ban Ao Fat	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 02:00	Johor, Pulau Sibu Kampong Lama	Malaysia	0.0
	23/10/2022 20:00	Terengganu, Telok Bedara	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 18:00	Chumphon, Ban Bang Man	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 00:00	Johor, Pulau Aur Kampong Kekabu	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 00:00	Johor, Pulau Aur Kampong Palas	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Chumphon, Ban Hin Sam Kon	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 22:00	Chon Buri, Ko Si Chang Ban Si Racha	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 00:00	Johor, Pulau Pemanggil Kampong Buau	Malaysia	0.0
	23/10/2022 22:00	Terengganu, Kampong Bidong Laut	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 17:00	Chumphon, Ban Choeng Kra	Thailand	0.0
	23/10/2022 21:00	Terengganu, Marang	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 00:00	Johor, Pulau Tioman Kampong Mokut	Malaysia	0.0
	24/10/2022 22:00	Chon Buri, Sattahip	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 22:00	Chon Buri, Ban Chong Samae San	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 18:00	Chanthaburi, Ban Ta Lian	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 13:00	Nakhon Si Thammarat, Ko Samui Ban Le	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 22:00	Prachuap Khiri Khan, Dhungnoi	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 15:00	Nakhon Si Thammarat, Ko Samui Ban Plai Laem	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 18:00	Rayong, Ban Nong Mapring	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 23:00	Rayong, Ban Phra La	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 19:00	Rayong, Ban Ko Kok	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 15:00	Prachuap Khiri Khan, Ban Chamuang	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 23:00	Prachuap Khiri Khan, Ban Bo Nok	Thailand	0.0
	24/10/2022 22:00	Prachuap Khiri Khan, Ban Wa Thon	Thailand	0.0

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.