Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICOLE-22
in United States, Bahamas
07 Nov 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NICOLE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bermuda, United States, Bahamas
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (09 Nov 23:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 72 km/h 1.2 m 67 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 108 km/h 0.9 m 358 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

108 km/h

Up to 2.9 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormCanada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bermuda, United States, Bahamas2,893,093
+
Canada78,573 
Saint Pierre and Miquelon6,288 
Bermuda62,003 
United States2,668,870 
Bahamas77,358 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Nov 2022 06:00 68 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 2 07 Nov 2022 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Canada, United States
GREEN 3 07 Nov 2022 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bermuda, United States, Bahamas
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmBahamas, United States, Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica2,764,926
+
United States557,448 
Bahamas6,062 
Venezuela1,067,042 
Colombia1,076,157 
Costa Rica28,081 
Panama30,133 
50-100 mmUnited States, Bahamas, Guatemala, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama24,779,438
+
United States9,716,968 
Bahamas70,993 
Guatemala918,235 
Venezuela3,235,860 
Trinidad and Tobago68,391 
Colombia9,209,938 
Costa Rica502,494 
Panama1,056,554 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Nov 2022 06:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Nov 2022 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Panama
Blue 3 07 Nov 2022 18:00 332 2.8 million
- - - - United States, Bahamas, Guatemala, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.2 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2022 18:00 UTC