Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico
20 Oct 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (20 Oct 03:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 86 km/h 0.3 m 108 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 0.4 m 415 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

173 km/h

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States39,937 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 176 -
- - - - - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmHonduras258 
100-250 mmMexico, Honduras, Guatemala2,126,004
+
Mexico280,907 
Guatemala03 
Honduras1,845,093 
50-100 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador5,856,842
+
Mexico1,657,010 
Belize227 
Guatemala3,014,253 
Honduras356,457 
El Salvador828,894 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 484 2.1 million
- - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Texas, Beach City, United States. This height is estimated for 22/10/2022 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22/10/2022 21:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.3
22/10/2022 10:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.3
22/10/2022 22:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.3
22/10/2022 22:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.2
22/10/2022 06:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
22/10/2022 05:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.2
23/10/2022 00:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
22/10/2022 21:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.2
23/10/2022 00:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
22/10/2022 05:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.2
22/10/2022 05:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.2
22/10/2022 05:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.2
20/10/2022 03:00 Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real Mexico  0.2
22/10/2022 05:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.2
22/10/2022 05:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.2
22/10/2022 21:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.2
20/10/2022 04:00 Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
22/10/2022 23:00 Sonora, La Choya Mexico  0.2
22/10/2022 05:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
22/10/2022 05:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.1
23/10/2022 00:00 Louisiana, North Side United States  0.1
23/10/2022 00:00 Louisiana, English Lookout United States  0.1
22/10/2022 23:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
22/10/2022 20:00 Tamaulipas, El Porvenir Mexico  0.1
22/10/2022 21:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
23/10/2022 00:00 Mississippi, Bay St Louis United States  0.1
23/10/2022 00:00 Mississippi, Henderson Point United States  0.1
22/10/2022 14:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.1
22/10/2022 21:00 Baja California, Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
23/10/2022 00:00 Mississippi, Pass Christian United States  0.1
23/10/2022 00:00 Mississippi, White Harbor United States  0.1
22/10/2022 23:00 Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
22/10/2022 19:00 Louisiana, Cocodrie United States  0.1
22/10/2022 22:00 Veracruz, Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
22/10/2022 21:00 Veracruz, La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
22/10/2022 23:00 Veracruz, Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
22/10/2022 23:00 Veracruz, Veracruz Mexico  0.1
22/10/2022 23:00 Veracruz, Tecolutla Mexico  0.1