Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAKHAR-22
Off-shore
11 Dec 2022 12 UTC
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Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAKHAR-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (11 Dec 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 76 km/h 0.7 m 93 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 94 km/h 0.8 m 224 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 3.4 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormSouth Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan3,350,639
+
South Korea16,391 
Japan834,715 
China10,716 
Taiwan2,488,816 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Dec 2022 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Japan, Taiwan
GREEN 2 11 Dec 2022 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Japan, Taiwan
GREEN 3 11 Dec 2022 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Japan, China, Taiwan
GREEN 4 11 Dec 2022 12:00 83 -
- - - - - South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmBrunei, Malaysia277,992
+
Brunei222,196 
Malaysia55,795 
50-100 mmJapan, Taiwan, Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia865,816
+
Japan5,057 
Taiwan21,401 
Philippines262,203 
Brunei200,883 
Malaysia356,864 
Indonesia19,406 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Dec 2022 18:00 98 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 11 Dec 2022 00:00 84 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 11 Dec 2022 06:00 113 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Dec 2022 12:00 206 280 thousand
- - - - Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC