Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ELLIE-22 in Australia from 22 Dec 2022 06:00 UTC to 18:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELLIE-22

in Australia

21 Dec 2022 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELLIE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (21 Dec 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	54 km/h	0.4 m	100 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	61 km/h	0.5 m	431 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

61 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	21 Dec 2022 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Australia	2,369
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	8,999,552	+
	Indonesia	8,853,717
	Papua New Guinea	6,126
	Australia	139,707
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	9,751,379	+
	Indonesia	9,345,639
	Papua New Guinea	332,636
	Australia	73,102

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	21 Dec 2022 12:00	333	9 million				-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Northern Territory, Gribble Settlement, Australia. This height is estimated for 21/12/2022 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Dec 2022 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21/12/2022 22:00	Northern Territory, Gribble Settlement	Australia	0.3
	23/12/2022 10:00	Western, Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	22/12/2022 21:00	Northern Territory, Numbulwar	Australia	0.3
	23/12/2022 13:00	Queensland, Dauan Island Dauan	Australia	0.2
	22/12/2022 11:00	South Australia, Port Clinton	Australia	0.2
	23/12/2022 10:00	Western, Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	24/12/2022 08:00	Western, Parama Island Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	23/12/2022 16:00	Western, Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	24/12/2022 08:00	Western, Wabuda Island Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	24/12/2022 09:00	Western, Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	23/12/2022 09:00	Papua, Pulau Frederik Hendrik Selemit	Indonesia	0.2
	24/12/2022 08:00	Western, Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	24/12/2022 04:00	Western, Dibiri Island Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	24/12/2022 08:00	Western, Aibinio Island Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	23/12/2022 02:00	Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Pagatan	Indonesia	0.2
	23/12/2022 11:00	Queensland, Hammond Island Port Kennedy	Australia	0.2
	22/12/2022 14:00	South Australia, Port Neill	Australia	0.2
	23/12/2022 11:00	Queensland, Palilug Island Hammond I	Australia	0.2
	23/12/2022 11:00	Queensland, Turtle Head Island Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	24/12/2022 09:00	Western, Wabuda Island Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	24/12/2022 08:00	Queensland, Wonga	Australia	0.2
	24/12/2022 05:00	Gulf, Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 05:00	Gulf, Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 05:00	Gulf, Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 12:00	Gulf, Vailala Hiloi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 12:00	Gulf, Vailala East	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 12:00	Gulf, Kea Kea	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	22/12/2022 11:00	South Australia, Edithburgh	Australia	0.1
	24/12/2022 03:00	Gulf, Ovahuhu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	23/12/2022 08:00	Western Australia, Lynton	Australia	0.1
	21/12/2022 21:00	South Australia, Kangaroo Island Kingscote	Australia	0.1
	21/12/2022 21:00	South Australia, Kangaroo Island North Cape	Australia	0.1
	22/12/2022 10:00	South Australia, Port Elliot	Australia	0.1
	22/12/2022 10:00	South Australia, Victor Harbour	Australia	0.1
	24/12/2022 10:00	Papua Barat, Kampoeng Tagiri	Indonesia	0.1
	23/12/2022 08:00	Maluku, Pulau Wokam Karaum	Indonesia	0.1
	23/12/2022 07:00	Maluku, Pulau Penambulai Rabal	Indonesia	0.1
	23/12/2022 07:00	Maluku, Pulau Penambulai Kangoerma	Indonesia	0.1
	23/12/2022 06:00	Maluku, Pulau Workai Baimoeh	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 03:00	Nusa Tenggara Timur, Timor Pitai	Indonesia	0.1
	23/12/2022 08:00	Maluku, Pulau Aduar Bendjoering	Indonesia	0.1
	23/12/2022 08:00	Maluku, Komfane	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 12:00	Maluku, Pulau Sera Temin	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 12:00	Western Australia, Useless Loop	Australia	0.0

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.