Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
20 Jan 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (20 Jan 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 68 km/h 0.6 m 114 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 151 km/h 1.5 m 905 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

151 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar377 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 130 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 19 Jan 2023 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jan 2023 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2023 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 20 Jan 2023 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar116,886 
250-500 mmMadagascar2,431,008 
100-250 mmComoros, Madagascar, Zambia4,467,777
+
Zambia17,542 
Comoros301,655 
Madagascar4,148,579 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion12,384,143
+
Tanzania1,044,782 
Zambia1,083,718 
Malawi794,837 
Mozambique1,206,919 
Comoros259,982 
Madagascar7,034,440 
Mayotte116,556 
Zimbabwe3,150 
Mauritius560,728 
Reunion279,027 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 192 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 275 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 111 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Blue 6 19 Jan 2023 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 19 Jan 2023 12:00 119 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2023 18:00 96 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mauritius
Blue 9 20 Jan 2023 00:00 565 7 million
- - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Mahajanga, Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 20/01/2023 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2023 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20/01/2023 20:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 23:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 18:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 16:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 20:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 20:00 Mahajanga, Baly Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 06:00 , Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 00:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.0
20/01/2023 17:00 Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 16:00 Toliara, Mitriaky Madagascar  0.0
20/01/2023 02:00 Toliara, Manambato Madagascar  0.0
18/01/2023 00:00 , Ile Amsterdam La Roche Godon French Southern and Antarctic Lands