Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ELLIE-22 in Australia from 22 Dec 2022 06:00 UTC to 18:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELLIE-22

in Australia

23 Dec 2022 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELLIE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Indonesia, Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (23 Dec 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	58 km/h	0.6 m	127 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	72 km/h	0.5 m	548 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

72 km/h

Up to 280 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Indonesia, Australia	283,934	+
	Indonesia	283,910
	Australia	24

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	22 Dec 2022 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	22 Dec 2022 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	22 Dec 2022 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
4	23 Dec 2022 00:00	76	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Indonesia, Australia	14,078	+
	Indonesia	10,309
	Australia	3,768
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	15,887,294	+
	Indonesia	15,883,992
	Papua New Guinea	195
	Australia	3,106
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia	12,380,740	+
	Indonesia	11,610,082
	Papua New Guinea	570,248
	East Timor	136,849
	Australia	63,559

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	22 Dec 2022 06:00	133	Few people		-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
2	22 Dec 2022 12:00	146	Few people		-	-	-	-	Australia
3	22 Dec 2022 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
4	23 Dec 2022 00:00	433	15.9 million			-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Pagatan, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 22/12/2022 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22/12/2022 15:00	Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Pagatan	Indonesia	0.2
	22/12/2022 08:00	Kalimantan Tengah, Borneo Bapuju	Indonesia	0.2
	24/12/2022 16:00	Queensland, Dauan Island Dauan	Australia	0.2
	24/12/2022 12:00	Northern Territory, Numbulwar	Australia	0.2
	24/12/2022 22:00	Northern Territory, Gribble Settlement	Australia	0.2
	24/12/2022 13:00	Western, Dibiri Island Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	24/12/2022 19:00	Western, Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	22/12/2022 17:00	South Australia, Port Clinton	Australia	0.1
	24/12/2022 18:00	Western, Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	23/12/2022 13:00	Western, Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	25/12/2022 06:00	Queensland, Turtle Head Island Ok Village	Australia	0.1
	24/12/2022 12:00	Western, Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 13:00	Western, Wabuda Island Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 19:00	Queensland, Hammond Island Port Kennedy	Australia	0.1
	24/12/2022 13:00	Gulf, Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 14:00	Western, Wabuda Island Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 13:00	Gulf, Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 19:00	Queensland, Palilug Island Hammond I	Australia	0.1
	24/12/2022 15:00	Western, Aibinio Island Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	25/12/2022 05:00	Queensland, Wonga	Australia	0.1
	25/12/2022 03:00	Papua, Pulau Frederik Hendrik Selemit	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 14:00	Gulf, Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 11:00	Western, Parama Island Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	22/12/2022 15:00	Western Australia, Lynton	Australia	0.1
	24/12/2022 11:00	Western, Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	25/12/2022 01:00	Western Australia, Hermite Island Ah Chong I	Australia	0.1
	22/12/2022 14:00	Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Boenati	Indonesia	0.1
	25/12/2022 03:00	Maluku, Pulau Sera Temin	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 23:00	Maluku, Pulau Workai Baimoeh	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 14:00	Gulf, Vailala Hiloi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 14:00	Gulf, Vailala East	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	25/12/2022 05:00	Gulf, Kea Kea	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	25/12/2022 06:00	Gulf, Ovahuhu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	23/12/2022 23:00	Maluku, Pulau Penambulai Rabal	Indonesia	0.1
	25/12/2022 01:00	Maluku, Pulau Penambulai Kangoerma	Indonesia	0.1
	22/12/2022 18:00	South Australia, Port Neill	Australia	0.1
	25/12/2022 02:00	Papua Barat, Kampoeng Tagiri	Indonesia	0.1
	23/12/2022 16:00	Western Australia, Useless Loop	Australia	0.0

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.