Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ELLIE-22 in Australia from 22 Dec 2022 06:00 UTC to 18:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELLIE-22

in Australia

23 Dec 2022 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELLIE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Indonesia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (23 Dec 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	61 km/h	0.5 m	93 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	72 km/h	0.5 m	548 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

72 km/h

Up to 100 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Indonesia	100,572

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	22 Dec 2022 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	22 Dec 2022 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	22 Dec 2022 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
4	23 Dec 2022 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	23 Dec 2022 06:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Australia	4,705
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	15,428,203	+
	Indonesia	15,237,569
	Papua New Guinea	180,823
	Australia	9,810
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia	11,329,091	+
	Indonesia	10,525,810
	Papua New Guinea	647,424
	East Timor	145,825
	Australia	10,031

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	22 Dec 2022 06:00	133	Few people		-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
2	22 Dec 2022 12:00	146	Few people		-	-	-	-	Australia
3	22 Dec 2022 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
4	23 Dec 2022 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	23 Dec 2022 06:00	520	15.4 million			-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Queensland, Dauan Island Dauan, Australia. This height is estimated for 24/12/2022 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Dec 2022 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24/12/2022 09:00	Queensland, Dauan Island Dauan	Australia	0.2
	22/12/2022 08:00	Kalimantan Tengah, Borneo Bapuju	Indonesia	0.2
	24/12/2022 07:00	Northern Territory, Numbulwar	Australia	0.2
	25/12/2022 03:00	Northern Territory, Gribble Settlement	Australia	0.2
	25/12/2022 02:00	Queensland, Turtle Head Island Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	24/12/2022 07:00	Western, Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	25/12/2022 02:00	Queensland, Hammond Island Port Kennedy	Australia	0.2
	22/12/2022 09:00	Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Pagatan	Indonesia	0.2
	24/12/2022 09:00	Western, Dibiri Island Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	24/12/2022 12:00	Queensland, Palilug Island Hammond I	Australia	0.2
	23/12/2022 12:00	Western, Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 17:00	Western, Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 08:00	Western, Wabuda Island Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	22/12/2022 11:00	South Australia, Port Clinton	Australia	0.1
	25/12/2022 05:00	Queensland, Wonga	Australia	0.1
	24/12/2022 08:00	Western, Wabuda Island Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 08:00	Western, Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 11:00	Gulf, Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 07:00	Western, Aibinio Island Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 14:00	Western, Parama Island Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 11:00	Gulf, Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 08:00	Western, Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 21:00	Papua, Pulau Frederik Hendrik Selemit	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 23:00	Maluku, Pulau Workai Baimoeh	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 22:00	Maluku, Pulau Penambulai Kangoerma	Indonesia	0.1
	25/12/2022 06:00	Gulf, Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	24/12/2022 22:00	Maluku, Pulau Penambulai Rabal	Indonesia	0.1
	25/12/2022 06:00	Gulf, Vailala Hiloi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	25/12/2022 06:00	Gulf, Vailala East	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	25/12/2022 06:00	Gulf, Kea Kea	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	25/12/2022 06:00	Gulf, Ovahuhu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	25/12/2022 05:00	Western Australia, Hermite Island Ah Chong I	Australia	0.1
	25/12/2022 01:00	Maluku, Pulau Sera Temin	Indonesia	0.1
	22/12/2022 10:00	Western Australia, Lynton	Australia	0.1
	24/12/2022 23:00	Maluku, Pulau Wokam Karaum	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 23:00	Maluku, Pulau Aduar Bendjoering	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 23:00	Maluku, Komfane	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 19:00	Papua, Kipia Maparpa	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 19:00	Papua, Paraoka	Indonesia	0.1
	24/12/2022 09:00	Kalimantan Selatan, Borneo Boenati	Indonesia	0.1
	22/12/2022 12:00	South Australia, Kangaroo Island Kingscote	Australia	0.0
	22/12/2022 14:00	South Australia, Kangaroo Island North Cape	Australia	0.0
	22/12/2022 06:00	Western Australia, Useless Loop	Australia

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.